Liu Qiannan
Investment consulting license number: Z0014425
Shipping/container capacity
[Important information]
1. Dry bulk freight rate: BDI reported 1279 points on August 19, -3.1% month-on-month and -66.6% year-on-year.
2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index for the week of August 19th was 3429.83, -3.7% month-on-month, -21.0% year-on-year, of which Shanghai- The US-West container freight rate is US$5,782/FEU, -6.0% month-on-month, and -2.4% year-on-year; the Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is US$4,788/TEU, -3.7% month-on-month, and -35.3% year-on-year.
3. According to data from the Ministry of Transport, from January to July, the national ports completed cargo throughput of 8.921 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, of which foreign trade cargo throughput was 2.665 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%; container throughput was 168.68 million TEU. , a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. Coastal ports completed cargo throughput of 5.830 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%, of which foreign trade cargo throughput was 2.392 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1%. .
4. In the first half of 2022, Orient Overseas achieved the best half-year revenue in history. In the first half of this year, OOIL achieved operating income of US$11.061 billion, a year-on-year increase of 58.3%; gross profit of US$6.120 billion, a year-on-year increase of 84.6%; operating profit of US$5.745 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101.2%; and pre-tax net profit of US$5.724 billion, a year-on-year increase of 10.18%. %; net profit was US$5.664 billion, a year-on-year increase of 101.5%. Profit before interest and tax (EBIT) in the first half of this year was US$5.749 billion, with an EBIT profit margin of 52%.
5. Reuters Latest news on August 19th - Nearly 2,000 dock workers will hold an 8-day strike starting on August 21st. Felixstowe, the UK's largest container port, said on Friday it was disappointed that the strike originally scheduled to start on Sunday had not been cancelled.
[Market Outlook]
In terms of containers, the high temperature and drought in the northern hemisphere have dropped, and Australia is considering suspending natural gas exports, which will further aggravate the energy crisis. Inflation in Europe may exceed market expectations. Demand-side pressures in European and American countries are gradually emerging. China's exports are expected to be exported in the fourth quarter. The growth rate will weaken significantly. In the context of the European energy crisis and shortage, the import of structural categories such as photovoltaic chemicals may increase in the short term, but in the long term, the intensification of recession in the context of high inflation will lead to a sharp decline in terminal demand. It is expected that container freight rates will continue to weaken in the short term. In the medium and long term, the supply and demand pattern of container transportation has reversed, and the medium and long-term weakening trend of freight rates will remain unchanged.
In terms of dry bulk cargo, the recent high temperature weather has been good for coal consumption, and the daily consumption of domestic power plants has increased. However, in the context of difficulties in inland waterway transportation and port clearance caused by high temperatures and droughts, Europe's coal imports are expected to slow down. In terms of iron ore, the demand for steel products in major economies such as Japan and South Korea has slowed down against the background of recession. The recovery of real estate and infrastructure has not exceeded market expectations. The resumption of production of steel plants is still doubtful under the background of power restrictions. Iron ore demand is still faced with There is greater pressure, focusing on China's infrastructure development in the second half of the year. In terms of grain, South America's grain demand is average, and Ukraine's grain exports are gradually recovering. The low water level in the Rhine River will continue to have a short-term impact on ship navigation. The limited port dredging will adversely affect the demand for dry bulk cargo. Short-term freight rates are expected to continue to be under pressure. In the near future, attention will be paid to rainfall conditions in Europe and the impact of power cuts in China.
Soybean/meal
[External market situation]
The overnight CBOT soybean index rose 0.96% to close at 1,413.22 cents/bu, and the US soybean meal index rose 0.42% to close at 406.3 US dollars/short ton.
[Related Information]
1.1. Oil World: Russia’s sunflower seed production has good prospects. A large number of institutions estimate it at 16-17 million tons, and the harvest will still take a long time. Time, however, is when the crop is expected to continue to put pressure on prices;
2.CFTC: As of the week of August 16, speculative funds held a net long position of 99,336 lots in CBOT soybean futures and options positions, which was 99,336 more than before. A decrease of 2173 lots in a week, and a net purchase of 2023 lots in the previous week;
3. Oil World: The crushing volume of soybeans in the United States and Brazil will hit a new high this year, and will continue to increase compared with last year. Correspondingly, Argentina soybean crushing volume will There have been seven consecutive months of decline since January this year. It is expected that the decline in exports from August to September will continue due to weak sales progress by farmers;
4. My agricultural products: As of the week of August 19, the actual crushing volume of soybeans by oil mills was 1.734 million tons, with an operating rate of 60.27%. The actual operating rate of oil plants this week was slightly lower than previously expected, 22,400 tons lower than the estimate; the actual crushing volume increased by 75,100 tons compared with the previous week.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The downward trend of U.S. soybeans has basically been established, but the recent transactions in China have been good, and the supply in Brazil continues to remain tight, so the downward trend is expected to remain There is a certain resistance, it is recommended to continue to maintain the idea of adding positions and selling short on rallies;
2. Arbitrage: MRM01 spread widens, RM15 counter-arbitrage, M11-1 positive arbitrage, stop profit and leave the market
3. Options: Sell M230 1-C-3700&Buy M2301-P-3650 to hold (the opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for buying and selling)
Grease sector
[External disk impact]
Cbot The main price of US soybean oil changed by +2.6% to 65.94 cents/pound; the main price of BMD crude palm oil changed by +0.91% to 4084 ringgit/ton.
[Important information]
1.AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 622,180 tons from August 1 to 20, compared with 646,853 tons in the same period in July, down 3.8% month-on-month.
2.ITS: Malaysia’s palm oil exports from August 1 to 20 were 728,165 tons, an increase of 9.09% from the 667,509 tons exported in the same period in July.
3. The US Department of Agriculture’s column report on Brazil shows that Brazil’s soybean planting area increased by nearly 4%, and new crop output was 144 million tons, compared with 126.6 million tons this year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture's WASDE predicts Brazil's crop output next year will be 149 million tons, with a yield of 3.55 tons/hectare, while the column's forecast is more conservative at 3.39 tons/hectare. Affected by drought last year, the yield was 3.09 tons/hectare, and the historical record was 3.54 tons/hectare in 2021.
[Trading Strategy]
Unilateral: This week, all oil and fat positions have been transferred to the month, and the main contract has been switched to the 01 contract. This week, oil prices fell due to macroeconomic shocks, and the 09 contract varieties still have relatively high basis differences. It is expected that the fluctuations will be stronger and return upward. The overall unilateral price of oil and fat is expected to remain range-bound, and we still need to wait for new drivers after the return of the new basis. Both rapeseed oil and soybean oil will maintain a pattern of tightness at the near-end and looseness at the long-term. The near-end supply conflict of palm oil will be resolved in the short term, while the far-end supply conflict is highly uncertain due to policy and other issues. However, the supply of oils and fats is relatively loose, and consumption expectations are relatively pessimistic, because the overall downward trend of oils and fats will not fundamentally change. It is recommended to test short the 01 rapeseed oil contract on rallies.
2. Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines.
3. Options: Stay on the sidelines. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
corn/cornstarch
【Important information】
1. The weekly crop growth report released by FranceAgriMer shows that in the week ending August 15, the growth rate of French cereal corn was 50%, which was lower than the 53% of the previous week, setting a new low for the same period since the statistics of crop ratings began in 2011. The decline in corn ratings is milder than in the past few weeks, indicating that precipitation and cooling since last weekend may have eased some pressure.
2. Due to long-term drought in some areas, EU corn production in the 2022/23 season (July to June of the following year) is expected to drop significantly, which may bring export opportunities to neighboring Ukraine.Platts Analytics predicts that EU corn production in 2022/23 will be between 55 million and 57 million tons. In its August supply and demand report, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered the EU's 2022/23 corn production forecast to 60 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15% and a 12% decrease from the previous estimate. The latest forecast is also below the five-year average for EU corn production.
3. Analysts’ survey average shows that Brazilian farmers’ corn production in 2021/2022 is expected to hit a record high. The corn harvest is estimated at 115.78 million tons, an increase of nearly 33% from the previous season, when frost and drought damaged some crops. Analysts said that the 8.17% expansion in sown area and the increase in yields have boosted Brazil's corn prospects this year. The yield per hectare of Brazil's second-crop corn is higher than 90 bags. This yield level allows the second-crop corn harvest to increase significantly by 50% compared with last year.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: U.S. corn rebounded slightly due to uncertainty in the scale of U.S. production, European output was reduced due to drought, and U.S. corn is expected to be weak and volatile. The surplus corn grain continues to be consumed, and rainfall in the Northeast and high temperatures in the southern Huanghuai River have a certain adverse impact on output, but demand is still weak, and the spot price of corn is weak. Futures prices have reflected more pessimistic expectations, and are expected to be mainly range-bound.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Buy c2301-C-2700. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Pigs
[Market Information]
1. Spot quotation: During the weekend, the overall price of pigs across the country maintained a slight fluctuation. Among them, the price of pigs in Northeast China is 20.72-20.88 yuan/kg, up 0.02-0.3 yuan/kg; in North China, it is 20.9-21.3 yuan/kg, down 0.16-0.18 yuan/kg from last Friday; in East China, it is 21.06-21.34 yuan/kg. , down 0.2-0.28 yuan/kg; South China 22.28-23.44 yuan/kg, stable compared with last Friday, 20.76-21.36/kg in southwest China, stable compared with last Friday;
2. Piglet and sow price: As of the week of August 18, yuan sow The price is 1832 yuan, down 16 yuan, piglets The price is 681 yuan, down 47 yuan;
3. Wind information: As of the week of August 19, the profit of self-breeding and self-raising pig breeding was 462.29 yuan/head, compared with the profit of 468.72 yuan/head the previous week; the profit of outsourced piglet breeding was 462.29 yuan/head. Profit 666.99 yuan/head, profit the previous week Profit 675.59 yuan/head;
4. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : As of August 19, the "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price Index 200" was 122.39, an increase of 0.23 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 123.36, an increase of 0.26 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 28.84 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; beef 77.48 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; mutton 67.38 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; eggs 10.67 yuan/kg, up 0.6%; white strip chicken 18.74 yuan/kg, down 0.6%.
[Trading strategy]
1. Unilateral: It is recommended that long orders in the early stage of the 01 contract can still be held;
2. Arbitrage: wait and see (the above opinions are for reference only and not as a basis for entering the market) According to)
chicken
[Important information]
1. White feather broiler chicken: The price of Shandong broiler chicken is expected to stabilize to 4.6 yuan/jin tonight. ( Zhuochuang Information )
2. White-feathered broiler chicks: Tomorrow, the price of chicken chicks from Shandong Dachang will stabilize at 3.3 yuan/feather. (Zhuochuang Information)
3. Segmented products: The price of frozen breasts was stable over the weekend, and the transaction range of frozen breasts in Binzhou, Shandong was 10.23-10.75 yuan/kg ( Chicken Disease Professional Network ).
4. Zhuochuang Information: Zhuochuang Information monitored the emergence of white-feathered broiler sample companies in the week of 8/12-8/18, with a total of 50.32 million chickens, a month-on-month increase of 0.52%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.43%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: In the week from 8/12 to 8/18, the average operating rate of key domestic white-feather broiler slaughtering enterprises was 65.29%, a month-on-month increase of 2.82 percentage points; the average storage capacity of frozen products was 71.00%, a month-on-month increase of 2.53 percentage points.
6. Zhuochuang Information: China’s white-feathered broiler chicken sales volume in July was 415 million, +2.7% month-on-month and -11.9% year-on-year. From January to July 2022, the total slaughter volume of white-feathered broiler chickens was 2.676 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%.
[Market Outlook]
In the short term, on the consumer side, social and retail data are lower than expected, and the growth rate of catering consumption is still low. In addition, there is still a partial rebound in the epidemic in many regions recently, and chicken consumption is under pressure. At present, the inventory in slaughterhouses continues to rise. Due to the reopening of schools in batches in the downstream, dealers have not concentrated on stocking up, and the overall delivery of goods is average. It is expected that the prices of raw chickens and cut products will mainly fluctuate in the short term. In the medium and long term, on the supply side, China's white-feathered broiler chicken sales in July were 415 million, +2.7% month-on-month and -11.9% year-on-year. The sales of raw chickens continue to recover, but it is still not as good as the same period in previous years. With the decline in the number of parents in production in the second half of the year, the supply side of white feathers gradually shrinks. Overall, chicken prices in the second half of the year will remain at a high level.
eggs
[Important information]
1. Spot: Mainstream egg prices across the country increased steadily over the weekend, and the mainstream egg price in Beijing was 231 yuan/44 pounds. Today, egg prices are mainly stable in most parts of the country. Prices in the Beijing market are stable. The wholesale price of mainstream Shimen, Xinfadi, , Huilongguan and other mainstream prices is 231 yuan/44 pounds, which is more stable than yesterday's price. As of 7 o'clock in the morning, the total arrival of eggs on the Great Ocean Road is 5 cars arrived and shipped normally. The mainstream wholesale price is 225-235 yuan/44 pounds, which is more stable than yesterday. Egg prices in Northeast Liaoning, Jilin, and Heilongjiang are stable; mainstream prices in Shandong are stable, egg prices in Henan are stable, Shanxi prices are stable, Hebei prices are stable, Hubei prices are stable, Jiangsu and Anhui prices are mostly mine, local egg prices are high and low, and egg prices are stable The market continues to fluctuate and consolidate, and shipments are normal.
2. Zhuochuang data: The number of laying hens in the country in July 2022 was 1.194 billion, an increase of 1.1% month-on-month and a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, in line with expectations. In July, the monthly emergence of layer hen seedlings from sample enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for 50% of the country) was 34.94 million birds, a decrease of 2.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 3.4%.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens eliminated in the country's main production areas in the week of August 19 was 18.92 million, a decrease of 3.9% from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information's monitoring and statistics on the culled chickens in key production areas across the country, the average age of culled chickens in the week of August 18 was 523 days, which was the same as the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: Egg sales in representative sales areas nationwide in the week of August 18 were 7,445 tons, an increase of 3.9% from last week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: In the week of August 18, both production link inventory and circulation relief inventory decreased. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.21 days, a decrease of 0.09 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.86 days. A decrease of 0.1 days compared with the previous week.
[Operation Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: On the egg supply side, the inventory in production was still relatively low in July, and it is expected that the inventory will remain low in the next few months, and the supply of eggs will be low. On the demand side, it is still in the summer demand stage, and there will be stocking for school and holidays in the future. Once egg prices fall, the demand side will improve slightly, and spot prices will remain high. In terms of futures and , the spot price is relatively high, but the current egg contract prices this year are at a relatively low level, so you can consider opening long positions on dips.
2. Arbitrage: The current 1-5 spread is at a historical low and has an upward trend. It is recommended that you consider going long the 1-5 spread. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
white sugar
[Important information]
1. Sugarcane farmers in Uttar Pradesh, India, are working under the Labor and Farmers Empowerment Association (Bhartiya Kisan Majdoor) Sanghatan, held a demonstration demanding that the minimum purchase price of sugarcane be increased to 450 rupees per 100 kilograms and the previous sugarcane arrears be paid. The marchers have submitted a memorandum of their demands to the relevant authorities. Previously, the committee headed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had approved increasing the minimum purchase price of sugarcane from 290 rupees per 100 kilograms in the 2021/2022 crushing season to 100 rupees per 100 kilograms in the new crushing season starting on October 1. 305 rupees per 100 kg.
2. Brazil’s Commodity Supply Agency (Conab) said that Brazil’s sugarcane crop output in 2022/23 is expected to decrease by 1% from the previous year to 572.9 million tons due to poor weather conditions during the growing season.Conab sugar production is expected to decrease by 3% to 33.89 million tons, while the country's ethanol production (including corn-based ethanol) is expected to reach 30.35 billion liters, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. The estimates for sugar cane and sugar production are lower than the 596 million tons and 40.28 million tons respectively estimated by Conab in the April report, but the ethanol production is higher than the last estimate of 28.65 billion liters. In 2022/23, Brazil's sugarcane planting area is expected to decrease by 2.6% from the previous year to 8.12 million hectares.
3. The Philippine Presidential Palace said on Thursday that the Philippine President has reached an agreement with sugar industry entities on a proposal to import 150,000 tons of sugar. Previously, the President of the Philippines had opposed the country's Sugar Regulatory Authority (SRA)'s decision to import approximately 300,000 metric tons of sugar, calling the decision illegal. Philippine President Marcos said that the government plans to start importing sugar before October to maintain the stability of local sugar prices.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Driven by poor Brazilian production data and fund short covering , raw sugar rebounded. The current market sentiment is pessimistic. Due to the impact of the epidemic during the double festival peak season, consumption may not show a significant improvement. Pay attention to the sales situation in the second half of the month, and futures prices are expected to be weak and volatile.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Buy SR301-C-5600. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Cotton - Cotton Yarn
[Influence from the external market]
Last Friday, the main ICE US cotton contract closed in a volatile manner, with the December contract rising by 3.11 cents/pound (2.76%) to 115.81 cents/pound.
[Important information]
1. According to the latest USDA export report, the United States in the week of August 11th was 202 In 2/23, 11,200 tons of upland cotton were signed, with a cumulative contract volume of 1.671 million tons. The contract progress was 65%, 16 percentage points higher than the 5-year average. The shipment volume for the week was 60,600 tons. The cumulative shipment volume as of that week is 101,700 tons.
2. As of the week of August 18, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 37,700 tons, a decrease of 1.33% from the previous week; among which, bonded cotton was 34,300 tons, a decrease of 1.54% from the previous week, and non-bonded cotton was 3,400 tons. tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.93%.
3. In July 2022, China imported 118,100 tons of cotton, a decrease of 27.5% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 17.9%. Among them, 94,500 tons of US cotton were imported. Except for US cotton, the single-month cotton imports of other countries were less than 10,000 tons. From January to July 2022, the cumulative imports were 1.25 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26%; the cumulative imports from 21/22 were 1.62 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 39%.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: Domestic cotton fundamentals are bearish, cotton supply is sufficient, and the demand-side market demand is still very poor even after the epidemic prevention and control is relaxed and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is inverted, product inventory is high, and textile mills The start-up rate is low, the impact of Xinjiang cotton issues on demand is apparent, and domestic cotton is weak in the long term. The fundamentals of U.S. cotton are strong, with a very low rate of good-quality new flowers and a very high abandonment rate. The USDA report in August significantly reduced U.S. cotton production, but U.S. cotton is facing adjustments after continuous sharp increases. The domestic market is weak and US cotton has begun to adjust, so domestic Zheng cotton is also facing a downward adjustment. Cotton yarn follows the cotton market trend.
2. Arbitrage: internal and external arbitrage, short-term external strength and internal weakness.
3, options: wait and see. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
peanuts
[Important information]
The domestic peanut market is operating stably and strongly. New peanuts are coming on the market sporadically in the main production areas. At present, the moisture content is still high. Deep processing companies mostly purchase on demand. Baishatong rice is quoted at 5.10-5.30 yuan/jin, and the transaction price of some good products is relatively strong. Traders are currently not willing to store large amounts of goods, and most of them mainly replenish stocks for immediate needs. The cold storage supply still maintains a good willingness to ship, and the transaction price remains at 5.05 yuan/jin, with some low prices at 4.80-4.90 yuan/jin. The arrival volume of oil plants is limited, and the Luhua factory has basically no arrival and is in a state of complete shutdown. The transaction price of some factories is 8,600-9,000 yuan/ton; the arrival volume of COFCO imported rice remains stable.
Peanut Oil: The domestic peanut oil market is generally stable. Some oil factories have a price-raising mentality, but the actual transaction price is difficult to rise.Southern customers are picking up goods one after another, but the number of new orders is still limited. The startup rate of domestic peanut oil companies is low, and the overall supply and demand pattern is obvious. In terms of price, the current domestic quoted price for first-grade ordinary peanut oil is 16,000 yuan/ton; the market price for small pressed strong-flavor peanut oil varies, with the mainstream quoted price being 18,000 yuan/ton.
[Operational Suggestions]
Unilateral: The market price of peanuts has been corrected recently, but the spot price has remained strong. This is mainly affected by changes in peanut delivery warehouse rules and macroeconomic sentiment. In addition, new peanuts are on the market, and companies continue to participate in hedging. The market believes that new The listing of peanuts has alleviated the tight situation of old crop peanuts, so the peanut market has corrected more with the 10 contract. The reduced peanut production is mainly summer peanuts, which will be launched in early September. Northeastern spring peanuts are expected to be launched in early October. Therefore, the peanut production has not yet been determined. The peanut production reduction is still expected. Therefore, it is recommended to place multiple orders at low prices after the correction.
month difference: The 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, causing futures to return to the spot. In view of the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may go lower. There are now signs of moving positions to another month, because the price of old peanuts this year is on the high side, but it will not go out of the -800 price difference last year. The current position remains volatile, and we remain on the sidelines for the time being.
period current strategy: The basis difference is around -300, but there is still room for growth in the peanut market, and you can choose a higher point to operate at the right time. Stay on the sidelines for now.
