2018 is quietly coming to an end, and the new year is coming. Facing the universal foreign exchange market, can the US index still be strong in the new year? Is gold rebounding? Will crude oil continue to fluctuate at low levels? Then we might as well analyze them one by one.
The U.S. Index: (Sign up with trade friction, lose trade friction)
When the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates in 2017, the U.S. Index did not rise as expected. On the contrary, it plummeted from 103.82 to around 88.40. From the beginning of 2018 to now, the U.S. Index has The index rose again from 88.40 to around 97.70. It was also a rate hike. Why is the gap so big? As we all know, Trump performed the most eye-catchingly in 2018. As a businessman, Trump’s sense of interests is beyond ordinary people. In March, regulations were signed to launch trade frictions with China, and then gradually launched trade frictions with the world. Companies such as ZTE became victims of trade frictions due to a lack of core technologies. The essence of trade friction is to obtain more benefits from other countries. At this time, the U.S. stock market has been doing well while China's stock market has been losing ground. However, the rise in the U.S. dollar index is more of a support for the U.S. economy, and raising interest rates can only be used as a means. Let’s take a look at the economic situation of the United States first: ① Unemployment rate. The current unemployment rate in the United States has dropped significantly, from 4.1% at the beginning of 2018 to 3.7% now. This is consistent with the current direction of Trump. Since the trade friction, Trump has created Many grassroots jobs have been created, including construction, services, basic manufacturing, etc. @Inflation level, the current inflation is around 2.2, which is basically in line with the expected direction. Overall, 2018 was a strong year for the U.S. dollar index. So what will happen to the US dollar index in 2019?
The factors affecting the U.S. Index in 2019 are: ①The number of interest rate hikes. ②Trade friction. ③Unemployment rate. ④Inflation level
At present, the road to raising interest rates in the United States will not be smooth in the future. On the one hand, Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell have a policy analysis. Powell, the leader, advocates raising interest rates, while Trump, the leader, advocates low interest rates. At present, the interest rate in the United States has been maintained at a neutral level. If the interest rate is too high, it will cause the market to shrink and be detrimental to exports, which will be accompanied by the gradual deterioration of the employment situation. Trump’s achievements will be in vain and his achievements will be in vain. The current number of interest rate hikes has dropped from the previous four to only two. This still angers Trump. In addition, trade friction was beneficial to the United States in the early stage, leading to a rise in the U.S. stock market and economic prosperity. However, in the later period, the world united to isolate the United States. Currently, Trump has shut down the U.S. government due to issues such as the failure of the U.S.-Mexico wall to pass Congress. The war has begun, and the United States will face more severe challenges in the future. Interest rates continue to rise, trade frictions continue, and the U.S. dollar index remains stagnant.
Gold Chapter: (The deeper the trade friction hurts, the more gold will rise)
2018 can be said to be a year of hard work and courage for gold. The high-altitude gold was broken by the strong US dollar and almost sank to the bottom of the lake. With no way out, it was forced to work hard and try hard. It began to gradually improve in the second half of the year, bucking the trend of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. In the first half of the year: multiple factors such as the rise of trade frictions, a surge in the U.S. stock market, and expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates favored by investors caused the U.S. dollar to strengthen and gold was forced to weaken.
The second half of the year: ① The Federal Reserve has been questioned. Trump has repeatedly criticized the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates to hinder the development of the U.S. economy, prompting the U.S. dollar to start to fluctuate from high to downward, and gold benefited from this. ②December to January is a good period for gold consumption in India and China. The demand is relatively large, and rigid demand promotes the rise of gold. ③ The unsatisfactory progress of Brexit, the U.S. government shutdown, the sharp rise and fall of global stock markets, the continued impact of trade frictions, and the intensification of imbalances have led to a significant increase in the safe-haven properties of gold, supporting the strength of gold. ④ Gold with a low technical level is more likely to be favored by investors. Various factors are driving gold to strengthen in the future.
In 2019, as the US dollar weakens, gold will usher in an explosive period and is expected to stabilize at 1,300 and return to 1,400.
Crude oil article: (Since I had you, the distance between the world has shortened)
Crude oil was in a rising stage in the first half of 2018, reaching a maximum of 76 US dollars/barrel before October. In just 2 months after that, crude oil fell from heaven to Hell, it fell as low as $42, a drop of more than 40%. What caused such a big change in crude oil? ① As the global economy slows down, global stock markets have plummeted more and more frequently, causing oil prices to fall. ②The output of crude oil producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Russia has increased significantly compared with previous years. ③Trump united with European countries to jointly put pressure on OPEC
. For 2019, crude oil will rebound significantly and is expected to return to 60 US dollars per barrel. ① The demand point for crude oil has declined, but there are currently no better substitutes, which will determine its price stability. ②OPEC and non-OPEC began to formally reduce production in January 2019. OPEC reduced production by approximately 800,000 barrels, and non-OPEC reduced production by 400,000 barrels. ③ Crude oil at US$50/barrel will endanger US upper-level crude oil suppliers and damage US shale oil production (the current cost is close to US$50/barrel). ④An oversold rebound will attract a large number of investors to participate. To sum up, crude oil will see a sharp rise.
statement: The original title of this article is "Forestang Jian: Chaos arises in the foreign exchange market, and contradictions breed new life", which was fine-tuned by the editor of Huitong.com to "2019 Market Analysis: The US dollar will weaken, gold will usher in an explosive period, and crude oil is expected to rebound. ", and was first published on Huitong.com as a year-end special topic "Famous Experts' Highlights"
