Text/Sina Finance Opinion Leader Columnist Bian Yongzu At 2:30 EDT, WTI May crude oil futures settled down $55.90, a decrease of 305.97%, to -$37.63/barrel, closing at a negative value for the first time in history and setting a new record in recent months. The contract's lowest

Text/Sina Finance Opinion Leader Columnist Bian Yongzu

At 2:30 EST, WTI May crude oil futures settled down $55.90, a decrease of 305.97%, to -$37.63/barrel, closing at a negative value for the first time in history, and setting a new record The lowest closing level and largest single-day decline in history for the front-month contract. Experts from all walks of life were so shocked that they lost their glasses and quickly gave various interpretations to this.

Experts are surprisingly unanimous at present. The main reason is that as the impact of the spread of the epidemic increases, the global economy slows down and demand decreases. Therefore, crude oil supply is increasingly oversupplied and inventory space is insufficient, causing crude oil prices to fall. Of course, another reason is that the speculative bulls in the market do not want to actually deliver, so they sell their long orders and buy the June contract again. According to this, experts speculate that this may cause a further blow to U.S. shale oil, and even the U.S. economic outlook is not optimistic.

Of course, this logic seems reasonable, but this may only be superficial and superficial. May crude oil futures fell sharply to negative values ​​on the delivery day. It may not be clear to market traders who will lose and who will gain, but one thing is certain, that is, crude oil producers are naturally short because they sell futures. The main purpose is to hedge the risk of falling crude oil prices. In the event of such a sharp decline, if they engage in crude oil futures trading, there is no doubt that this will bring them huge investment returns.

We can do a simple calculation. Yesterday, crude oil futures fell by more than 300%. Assuming that the leverage of the New York crude oil futures market in the United States can reach 10 times, theoretically, if short sellers only need to pay US$4 billion, they can obtain US$120 billion in profits. At the same time, pure speculators in the market are very cautious about short positions. In order to avoid risks, they often close when the situation is good. But for producers, the risk of shorting can be hedged and therefore tend to be more determined short sellers. The sharp decline in crude oil futures this time can be judged to be the proactive action of crude oil producers.

Analysts have been pessimistic about the U.S. shale oil industry recently, mainly due to low oil prices and high debt. Moody's data shows that in the next four years, North American oil and gas companies will have a total of more than 200 billion US dollars in debt due. In 2020, more than 40 billion US dollars of debt will mature. By 2021, more than 100 billion in debt may mature. It is generally believed that the break-even point of US shale oil is US$40-50. / barrel, the current oil price has been significantly lower than this price, which will cause shale oil producers to lose their financing ability and may also trigger a wave of bankruptcies. This is likely to be the flashpoint for the U.S. economic crisis, which will ultimately trigger its economic recession.

However, this time the sharp plunge in oil prices can perfectly help the US economy. It can be seen that as long as shale oil producers pay a small capital cost, they have already gained huge profits, which can easily cover the possible bond redemption crisis in the next two years. If the shale oil bond crisis is resolved, it will actually put the most urgent situation at present. The crisis was resolved. While there are other problems in the U.S. economic system, from a global perspective, every large economy has problems. What we have to observe now is whether the financial situation of U.S. shale oil producers has improved significantly in the next few months. If it improves significantly, it will definitely inspire great confidence among investors in the U.S. economy and help the United States solve the problems existing in its economy. Provides a very valuable window of time.

Of course, this time oil prices fell to negative values, which is unprecedented but so large that it seems that it cannot be completely explained by the market. But in any case, the United States has used its strong financial strength to perfectly demonstrate how the financial system can serve as a cushion for the real economy during an economic crisis. It has also effectively countered the Saudi-Russian suppression of oil prices against its shale oil manufacturers some time ago. The negative impact it has brought and even solved their financial situation all at once is something that the above two countries may not have expected at all. Only in financial games can we truly see the level of strength.

Again, although from a philosophical point of view, the decline of the United States’ strength is a historical trend, we cannot help but face the fact that the United States is still the strongest country.Some investors are often blindly optimistic about the U.S. economy heading into recession, which may lead to fatal losses. At this time, investors should be more cautious and pay more attention to the international situation. For the majority of investors, 2020 is really a year of ups and downs. The financial market may have more ups and downs, have more excitement, and may also face greater storms.

　(Introduction to the author of this article: Deputy director and researcher of the Chongyang Industrial Research Department of the National People's Congress. An old man in the management consulting industry and a columnist.)