Liu Bowen
Investment consulting license number: Z0014252
Shipping/container capacity
[Important information]
1. Dry bulk freight rate: BDI index closed at 2067 points on 7/8, ring Compared with -0.3%, year-on-year -36.2%.
2. Container freight rate: SCFI container freight index for the week of July 9th was 4143.8, -1.4% month-on-month, +5.4% year-on-year, of which the Shanghai-US West container freight rate was 7,116 US dollars/FEU, -3.0% month-on-month, +41.6 year-on-year %; Shanghai-Europe container freight rate is 5,697 US dollars/TEU, -0.6% month-on-month and -15.5% year-on-year.
3. Yang Ming Shipping achieved operating income of NT$38.71 billion (approximately US$1.306 billion) in June this year, a year-on-year increase of 40.58%, setting another record high. In the first half of this year, Yang Ming Shipping achieved a cumulative operating income of NT$216.151 billion (approximately US$7.294 billion), a year-on-year increase of 59.46%.
4. Clarkson Research said in the latest market report that in the past week, affected by the incident in Bangladesh, the atmosphere of the ship scrapping market and the price of ship scrapping have plummeted. Bangladesh has recently been able to import competitively priced steel products from China, which has led to a sharp softening of domestic steel prices in the country, further leading to a significant decline in scrap steel price levels. As the price of imported scrap steel is now significantly lower than the price of imported ship recycling, the local demand for scrap steel has dropped. In order to eliminate the current negative sentiment and prices, the Bangladesh Ship Recycling Association has issued an ultimatum to the recycling yards to stop supplying steel scrap immediately. Factory sells inventory. Therefore, the Bangladesh ship-breaking market is actually considered to be closed, and local ship-breaking yards have also emphasized that they will not provide any tonnage for the time being.
5. Shipping companies and stakeholders using container terminals in and around the Chennai corridor in southern India are facing severe freight delays as truck drivers at Indian ports went on strike on July 4. The strike has led to an increase in import containers and the failure of some export cargo to be loaded on scheduled ships. Local sources said that around 4,000 trucks handling cargo at the local container freight station (CFS) at the ports of Chennai, Ennore (now renamed Kamarajar) and Kattupalli ports have been stopped since Monday.
[Market Outlook]
Containers, on the demand side, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and global high inflation, demand-side pressure in European and American countries is gradually emerging. The recent economic recession is expected to strengthen, but the media said that U.S. President Biden is expected to announce the cancellation of some additional tariffs on China soon. The plan may include suspending tariffs on consumer goods such as clothing and school supplies, which is expected to boost exports during the peak season. Starting from July 8th, Shanghai will gradually reopen cinemas and performance venues, and the resumption of work and production will continue to advance. The increase in peak season shipping volume coupled with the intensification of congestion at European ports, container freight rates are still expected to rebound, but due to the impact of rising inventories in Europe and the United States and declining demand, the impact on It is not appropriate to be optimistic about the rebound height.
In terms of dry bulk cargo, orders on hand are still at a low level, and dry bulk carrier shipping capacity cannot be significantly increased in the short term. In terms of demand, short-term demand for imported thermal coal from China remains sluggish, and with the arrival of the rainy season, demand from Indian buyers has been sluggish, putting pressure on short-term shipments. However, after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe still has a demand for coal, which supports coal demand. In terms of iron ore, short-term shipping demand in Europe is weak due to the profit losses of steel mills and the reduction pressure brought by policy-based production restrictions in China in the second half of the year. However, weak infrastructure in China and Europe in the second half of the year is expected to shape demand for iron ore. Definitely support. In terms of grain, global grain transportation demand is generally stable, and the easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to promote grain exports. Short-term freight rates are expected to remain volatile and weak. With the arrival of the peak dry bulk shipping season in the third quarter, dry bulk freight rates are expected to bottom out and rebound.
Soybean/meal
[External market situation]
The overnight CBOT soybean index rose 0.66% to close at 1,410.91 cents/bu, and the US soybean meal index rose 1.64% to close at 409.4 US dollars/short ton.
[Related information]
1.USDA: As of the week of June 30, net export sales of US soybeans in 21/22 were -160,000 tons, compared with -120,200 tons in the previous week (expected -300,000-300,000 tons), lower than the previous week Four-week average; 22/23 net export sales were 240,100 tons, compared with 128,000 tons the previous week (100,000-300,000 tons expected);
2.USDA: For the week ended July 8, Illinois soybean crushing profit was 2.65 US dollars, compared with US$3.02 last week and US$3.12 in the same period last year, of which soybean prices were US$16.46/bu. With the economic and financial environment and the weak national currency, Argentinian soybean farmers are very reluctant to sell soybeans, peso real exchange rate is expected to be only half of the official announcement. The four major grain groups called for a strike on July 13 to protest the severe diesel shortage and high tax burden;
4. My agricultural products: As of the week of July 8, the actual crushing volume of soybeans by 111 oil mills was 1.7105 million tons, The startup rate is 59.45%. The actual operating rate of oil plants this week was lower than previously expected, 110,700 tons lower than expected.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: Affected by the recent weather model showing that the weather will be dry in the coming period and Argentine farmers' reluctance to sell, the US soybeans rebounded significantly overnight. It is expected that the US soybeans will continue before the monthly supply and demand report is released. In the rebound trend, soybean meal will also follow the trend of strength. It is recommended to be bullish in the near future. The pressure on the US soybean November contract is tentatively 1480-1500 cents;
2. Arbitrage: M91 and RM91 positive set;
3. Options: bearish bull market It is recommended to continue to hold the spread position, buy M2209-P-4200 and sell M2209-P-4100 to hold the bearish bull market spread, buy RM2209-P-3800 and sell RM2209-P-3650 to hold the bearish bull market spread (views only For reference, not as a basis for buying and selling)
Oils and fats sector
[External disk impact]
Cbot the main price of US soybean oil rose 1.9% to 60.7 cents/pound; the main price of bmd crude palm oil rose 0.7% overnight to 4163 ringgit.
[Important information]
1. Indonesian officials said that Indonesia plans to increase the blending rate of palm oil in biodiesel to 35% before the end of the month.
html Germany’s biodiesel consumption in April fell 7% month-on-month to 213,000 tons, which was the same as the same period last year. However, diesel consumption in April dropped sharply by 12% month-on-month, which means that the blending ratio increased to 7.8% from 7.4% last month.
3. In June Ukraine sunflower oil exports increased to a four-month high of 267,000 tons, with cumulative sunflower oil exports from January to June reaching 1.77 million tons. Export volumes once again exceeded market expectations despite the closure of Black Sea ports.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: In the case of high profits from raw firewood processing, last week the Indonesian government confirmed that the B35 firewood plan will be implemented soon. In the short term, the firewood plan will have a limited impact on Indonesia’s current inventory expansion pressure, but The long-term impact is more optimistic. As for the recent market, we continue to see a rebound. The recent macro sentiment has recovered under the extremely bearish sentiment last week. In addition, consumption is expected to increase due to generally low domestic oil inventories, and the short-term and long thinking at the bottom continues.
2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to the expansion of the price difference between beans and ; rapeseed oil 91 can continue to pay attention to the positive trend; in addition, the monthly spread of y91 is still unlikely to change structure. If it is weak in the near future, continue to pay attention to short-term positive opportunities, with a target of 200-300.
3. Options: Pay attention to the secondary point price strategy of oil. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
Corn/Corn Starch
[Important Information]
1. According to the latest survey data from the Mysteel corn team on 47 large-scale feed companies in 18 provinces across the country, as of July 7 The average corn inventory of feed companies is 32.34 days, a decrease of 2.07 days or 6.03% week-on-week, and an increase of 9.24% compared with the same period last year.
2. According to the latest survey data from the Mysteel corn team on 96 major corn deep processing manufacturers in 12 regions across the country, in the 27th week of 2022, as of July 6, the total corn inventory of processing companies was 4.269 million tons, a decrease of 4.56% from last week. %.
3. Mysteel corn team research data shows that on July 1, the corn inventory in the four northern ports totaled 3.538 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 58,000 tons; the shipping volume of the four northern ports that week totaled 385,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 200,000 tons.
4. The Ukrainian Grain Traders Council UGA revised the country’s grain and oilseed production forecast upward to 69.4 million tons from the previous 66.5 million tons, but it is still far lower than the 106 million tons in 2021. The committee said in a statement that Ukraine may harvest 20.8 million tons of wheat and 27.3 million tons of corn this year. In the 2022/23 season starting in July, Ukraine may export 10 million tons of wheat and 10 million tons of corn.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: U.S. corn rebounded slightly as concerns about the risk of economic recession temporarily eased. At present, domestic futures prices are already at a substantial discount to spot prices. As surplus grain is gradually consumed, the room for spot declines is limited. Short-term macroeconomic shocks are showing signs of weakening, and futures prices are likely to rebound and recover.
2. Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening price difference of starch corn in 09.
3. Options: Sell c2209-P-2640 and sell c2209-C-2840, or sell c2209-P-2800. (The above opinions are for reference only and are not used as a basis for entering the market)
Live pigs
[Market Information]
1. Spot quotation: National pig prices rose during the holidays, but overnight pig prices began to fall. Among them, Northeast China is 22.9-23.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.3-1 yuan/kg from last Friday; North China is 23-23.5 yuan/kg, an increase of 1-1.2 yuan/kg from last Friday; East China is 23.2-23.6 yuan/kg. , an increase of 0.8-1.1 yuan/kg from last Friday; South China 23.1-24.6 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.4-1.7 yuan/kg from last Friday; Southwest 21.8-22.4 yuan/kg, an increase of 1.6 yuan/kg from last Friday ;
2. Piglet and sow prices: As of the week of July 7, the price of 15 kilogram piglets was 743 yuan/head, an increase of 99 yuan from last week, and the price of 50 kilogram sows was 1,829 yuan, an increase of 25 yuan from last week;
3. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs : On July 8, the "Agricultural Products Wholesale Price Index 200" was 118.92, an increase of 0.09 points, and the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 119.27, an increase of 0.10 points. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 28.98 yuan/kg, down 0.4%; beef 76.94 yuan/kg, down 0.2%; mutton 65.48 yuan/kg, down 0.5%; eggs 9.59 yuan/kg, up 1.8%; white strip chicken 17.92 yuan/kg, down 1.2%;
4. Pig Farming Network : The German Ministry of Agriculture issued a statement on July 2 that farms in Lower Saxony in northwest Germany and Brandenburg in the east Two major pig-raising states in Germany have detected African swine fever. South Korea, Japan and some major pork importing countries have also followed suit and banned the import of German pork. Spain, Germany's main competitor in and EU , received a large number of new trade orders from Asia after the introduction of these import bans.
[Trading strategy]
1. Unilateral: Although the pig quotation was lowered yesterday, in the short term, the market supply contradiction is still relatively prominent. The price of pigs may be difficult to fall deeply. In the near future, we will mainly wait and see, waiting for lows to do long;
2. Arbitrage : Wait and see (the above opinions are for reference only, not as a basis for entering the market)
chicken
[Important information]
1. White feather broiler chicken: The mainstream quotation in front of the Shandong white feather broiler shed last night was about 4.75 yuan/jin, with an increase of 2-7 cents. It is expected that the price of chickens in front of the shed in Shandong will be reduced by 0.05 yuan/jin tonight, and the mainstream price in front of the shed in Shandong is 4.70 yuan/jin. (My Agricultural Products Network)
2. White-feathered broiler chicks: On July 11th and July 12th, the price of white-feathered broiler chicks from Shandong Dachang was 2.70 yuan/bird, the transaction price of Shandong Zhongda Factory’s chicken chicks was 2.40-2.50 yuan/bird, and the transaction price of white-feathered broiler chicks from Shandong Zhongda Factory was 2.40-2.50 yuan/bird. The transaction price of chicks is 2.30-2.40 yuan/bird. (My Agricultural Products Network)
3. Segmented products: The price of white feather segmented products was stable over the weekend, and the mainstream transaction price range of frozen large breasts in Binzhou, Shandong was 10.58-10.85 yuan/kg.
4. Zhuochuang Information : From July 1st to July 7th, Zhuochuang Information monitored a total of 50.228 million white-feather broiler sample enterprises emerging, with a month-on-month increase of 5.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.34%.
5. Zhuochuang Information: The average operating rate of key domestic white-feather broiler slaughtering enterprises in the week from July 1st to July 7th was 55.76%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.88 percentage points; the average frozen product storage capacity rate was 66.00%, a month-on-month decrease of 3.06 percentage points.
6. Zhuochuang Information: The total number of white-feathered broiler chickens sold in May 2022 was 390 million, a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.7%. From January to May 2022, the total slaughter volume of white-feathered broiler chickens was 1.857 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%.
[Market Outlook]
The speed of hatchery discharge has accelerated recently. Last week, 50.22 million chicks were hatched, an increase of 5% from the previous month. The replenishment of chicks next week can avoid the dog days of summer, and the willingness to replenish the flock is expected to increase. promote. On the consumer side, the national epidemic prevention and control policies have been relaxed, and the rise in pig prices has been conducive to the recovery of downstream consumption of chicken. However, the epidemic has recently rebounded locally in Anhui, Jiangsu, and Shanghai, and the school holiday has gradually entered. The group meal channel is expected to be affected. suppress. In terms of raw chickens, the current supply is still limited, and subsequent slaughter is expected to gradually recover. The operating rate of slaughterhouses is still at a low level. Boosted by pig prices, short-term price fluctuations of raw chickens are expected to be the main concern. In the second half of the year, supported by high feed costs and rising pig prices, the price of raw chickens is expected to rise, but the overall price will remain high and volatile.
eggs
[Important information]
1. Spot: Mainstream egg prices across the country mainly increased over the weekend, with egg prices in main production and sales areas across the country rising. The mainstream egg price in Beijing also rose to 188 yuan/44 pounds. Today, egg prices continue to rise in most areas across the country. Prices in the Beijing market have risen. The wholesale price of mainstream Shimen, Xinfadi, , Huilongguan and other mainstream products is 193 yuan/44 jins, which is 5 yuan higher than yesterday's price. As of 7 a.m., the total arrivals on the Great Ocean Road are 7 cars, arrived and shipped normally. The mainstream wholesale price is 193-200 yuan/44 pounds, which is 5 yuan higher than yesterday's price. The price of laying hens in most major production areas also increased. The peak season for restocking arrives before the Mid-Autumn Festival. The price of live pigs has also risen sharply recently, and the price of eggs has increased seasonally and replaced it.
2. Zhuochuang data: The number of laying hens in the country in June 2022 was 1.181 billion, an increase of 0.25% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 0.25%, in line with expectations. In June, the monthly emergence of layer hen seedlings from sample companies monitored by Zhuochuang Information (accounting for 50% of the country) was 35.98 million birds, a decrease of 10.7% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.
3. According to Zhuochuang data: the number of laying hens eliminated in the country's main production areas in the week of July 8 was 14.42 million, a decrease of 5.5% from last week. According to Zhuochuang Information's monitoring statistics on the age of culled chickens in key production areas across the country, the average age of culled chickens in the week of July 7 was 503 days, 1 day more than the previous week.
4. According to Zhuochuang data: Egg sales in representative sales areas nationwide in the week of July 7 were 7504.6 tons, an increase of 3.2% from last week.
5. According to Zhuochuang data: In the week of July 7, both production link inventory and circulation relief inventory decreased. The average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.39 days, a decrease of 0.07 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 0.88 days. A decrease of 0.06 days compared with the previous week.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: On the egg supply side, the number of eggs in production was still relatively low in June. The number of eggs continues to recover but at a slow speed. However, the egg production rate decreases due to hot weather. Overall, the egg supply is acceptable. On the demand side, the peak season consumption of and Mid-Autumn Festival will begin in July, and catering and tourism consumption will increase after the epidemic prevention and control is relaxed. Recently, the spot price of eggs has increased significantly. The price of pork has risen sharply recently, and the price of Taobao chicken has also increased. It is expected that the substitute role of eggs will increase, and stocking for the peak consumption season will begin, and the spot price of eggs will continue to rise. In terms of futures, commodities have generally fallen recently, and the market transaction feed cost has been reduced. The September contract has fallen to around 4300, and the price has dropped to the mid-to-high position of the price range for the same period in previous years. Corresponding to the lower expected future inventory, the price is basically It has reached a normal range, so it is expected that this position will have a strong supporting effect, and the spot price of eggs has recently begun to rise, coupled with the sharp rise in pork prices, which has increased the substitution of eggs, it is recommended that you consider opening a long position on dips.
2. Arbitrage: From a statistical perspective, we can consider long September and short November. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
white sugar
[Important information]
1. On July 5, the plenary meeting of the European Parliament passed a report on future trade and investment cooperation between the EU and India. The European Parliament has called on the EU to make no concessions on sugar in ongoing trade talks with India in light of a WTO ruling condemning India's sugar subsidies. The European Parliament also called for the immediate suspension of WTO quotas that provide India with preferential access to the EU sugar market worth 10,000 tons per year. Despite the WTO ruling, India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry has announced that it has no intention of removing its sugar subsidies.
2. The latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that my country’s finished sugar production from January to May 2022 was 9.006 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The output of finished sugar in May was 540,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 39.2%.
html The spot quotations on 43.7 were generally stable, with only Guangxi Hunan and Guizhou lowered by 20 yuan/ton, and most quotations entered the low price range. The overall wait-and-see mood is strong, the trading volume is light and unchanged, and the transactions are average.
[Trading Strategy]
1. Unilateral: The market has digested concerns about recession, raw sugar has rebounded sharply, domestic futures prices have continued to adjust, and later prices have been significantly discounted to spot prices. As domestic temperatures rise, consumption will gradually increase, and later Futures spot prices are expected to gradually strengthen, short-term macroeconomic shocks are showing signs of weakening, and Zheng sugar may rebound and repair.
2. Arbitrage: wait and see.
3. Options: Sell SR209-P-5800. (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
Cotton - Cotton Yarn
[Influence from the external market]
The main ICE US cotton contract rose sharply last Friday, and the December contract rose 3.68 cents/pound (4%) to 95.72 cents. /pound.
[Important information]
1. According to the requirements of relevant national departments and the arrangements of China Grain Reserve Management Group Co., Ltd., in order to promote the smooth operation of the cotton market, China Cotton Reserve Management Co., Ltd. will organize the first batch of central reserve cotton rotation in 2022. (1) The rotation time will start on July 13, 2022, and the end time will be determined in a timely manner based on the market situation, rotation situation, etc. (2) The total incoming quantity is 300,000-500,000 tons, and the daily listed quantity is arranged in a balanced manner and dynamically adjusted in principle. (3) Turn-in price. The maximum price of the round bidding (delivery price) is dynamically determined based on the domestic cotton spot price on the previous working day (see the attachment for the specific calculation formula), and the start/stop price is set. The current domestic cotton spot price on the current working day is lower than 18,600 yuan/ tons (inclusive), start the rotation, and stop the rotation when it is higher than 18,600 yuan/ton. (4) Method. Through the national cotton trading market open bidding transaction.
2. According to the latest USDA export report, in the week of June 30, the United States signed 8,500 tons of upland cotton for the 2021/22 year. As of that week, the 2021/22 upland cotton contracted 3.5472 million tons. The contracting progress was 113%, and the five-year average was 112%; the weekly shipment volume was 85,700 tons, the cumulative shipment volume as of that week was 2.6964 million tons, the shipment progress was 86%, and the five-year average was 91%. That week, 86,600 tons of upland cotton for 2022/23 were signed, and as of that week, a total of 1,008,900 tons had been signed.
3. According to a survey of 60 large and medium-sized cotton processing enterprises by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System, as of July 7, the national sales rate was 64.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 35.1 percentage points, and a decrease of 24.0 percentage points from the average of the past four years. Among them, Xinjiang Sales reached 61.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 38.2 percentage points, and a decrease of 26.2 percentage points from the average of the past four years. Calculated based on the estimated domestic cotton output of 5.801 million tons (forecast by the National Cotton Market Monitoring System in December 2021), as of July 7, the country’s cumulative sales of lint 3.718 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.185 million tons, compared with the average of the past four years A decrease of 1.565 million tons, of which Xinjiang sales were 3.221 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.996 million tons, and a decrease of 1.229 million tons compared with the average of the past four years.
[Operational Suggestions]
1. Unilateral: The September contract of Zheng Cotton is currently around 17,000. On the one hand, this position has a greater supporting role from the planting cost side, and most of the downstream textile companies are profitable at this position. The spot price There is also support. On the other hand, 17,000 is also the current low point that most industry people can recognize. The price fell to around 16,500, which has a very strong support effect. However, even if the cotton price falls to the current price, there are still few orders from downstream textile mills. Without volume support, it is difficult for the downstream to form purchasing motivation. Moreover, the Fed's interest rate hike expectations are strong, and the general trend of commodities is weakening. It is expected that the general trend of Zheng cotton will also maintain The trend is relatively weak, so it is recommended to open short positions on rallies. Although the Xinjiang cotton rotation policy was announced on Friday, the policy was basically within the expected range. It was slightly positive at the beginning of the announcement, but it may be negative after the profits are exhausted. The general trend of cotton yarn is the same as that of cotton.
2. Arbitrage: The internal arbitrage considers short US market and long Zheng cotton.
3. Options: In the short term, it is recommended to consider buying put options on and . (The above views are for reference only and are not used as a basis for market entry)
peanuts
[Important information]
The domestic peanut market was stable and strong last week. The shipment of goods in the northeastern production areas has improved slightly, and inquiries about prices have increased slightly, indicating a clear willingness to raise prices. Affected by the continued decline in surplus in some production areas, the price of finished rice has tended to be stronger, while the price of commodity rice has remained stable. The price of 308 rice in Northeast production areas is 4.75-4.80 yuan/jin. The price of ordinary rice in the Baisha production area in Henan is 4.50-4.70 yuan/jin, and that of large peanuts is 4.45-4.60 yuan/jin. The transaction price is based on quality. The price of ordinary rice in the Shandong production area is 4.30-4.50 yuan/jin. The arrival volume of oil plants remains at a low level. The transaction price of Luhua currency rice is 8,600-9,000 yuan/ton. At Luhua factory, only Laiyang and Fuyu factories are started. The rest of the factories have been shut down and will remain shut down for the time being. Continuously collecting status. Yihai Kerry has been completely stopped.
peanut oil: The domestic peanut oil market is running weakly, and the bean rice dumplings have rebounded slightly, but the negative impact still exists. At present, there are few inquiries for peanut oil, and the downstream market is still mainly waiting and seeing, with very few new transactions. Most oil mills are executing early orders, but delivery of early orders is slow. In terms of price, the current domestic average price of first-grade ordinary peanut oil is 17,000 yuan/ton; the market quotations of small-pressed strong-flavor peanut oil vary, with the mainstream quotation being 19,000 yuan/ton.
[Operational Suggestions]
Peanuts may be in a volatile trend in the short term, but due to the fact that production is reduced and the possibility of subsequent weather speculation, it is recommended to go long in the 9600-9800 range.
month difference: The 10 contract is the delivery of old peanuts, causing futures to return to the spot. In view of the price difference between old and new peanuts, the 10-1 price difference may go lower. It is currently believed that the monthly difference is in a volatile range, and the -300 point does not have the motivation to continue falling, and will be re-arranged when the correction is below -200.
period spot strategy: The basis is -500. After excluding the delivery cost, there is a profit margin of about 100 yuan per ton. You can choose to sell hedging or purchase spot and sell it to the market to lock in the basis profit. However, there is still room for growth in the peanut market, and you can choose to hedge at a higher level when the opportunity arises. Stay on the sidelines for now.
