[Text/Observer.com columnist Sha Qingqing Huang Lijun]
"The May Five System": the great integration of the right
In Japanese political terminology, there is the so-called "May Five System" or "1955 System", which refers to 1955 Japan's entire political operation model after the formal establishment of the Liberal Democratic Party .
The Liberal Democratic Party has been in power in Japan for a long time since its establishment. Occasionally, it has stumbled two or three times. However, the time when it lost power was very short, and it basically returned to the center of power quickly. This operating model of the Liberal Democratic Party almost directly determines the rules of the postwar Japanese political game. The "Fifth Five-Year System" is a special phenomenon of the Liberal Democratic Party being the largest party in Japan for a long time in power.
So, what is the background of the “Fifth Five-Year System”? Why was the Liberal Democratic Party born at this time? As can be seen from the party name, the Liberal Democratic Party was the merger of the Liberal Party and the Democratic Party in 1955. At that time, it was in the early stages of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, and left-wing forces were surging in Japan. Many left-wing political and social forces were integrating and trying to challenge Japan's existing political model. However, due to the background of the Cold War , neither the conservative forces in Japan nor the United States behind it want to see a leftist party seize power in Japan, or even dominate Japan's policy direction in the future. From the perspective of Americans, this undoubtedly shakes their Cold War foundation in the Far East.
Therefore, when the left-wing Socialist Party completed its integration, the United States was very nervous, and the Japanese Communist Party was also very powerful at that time. In order to prevent the left from coming to power, the United States has almost forced integration on both sides of the Liberal Party and the Democratic Party. Although the leaders of the Liberal Party and the Democratic Party have different political views on some issues, or even polar opposites, they at least have a background of right-wing conservatism. At least for the purpose of preventing the left from coming to power, the integration of the two parties has been barely achieved.
After the merger of the two parties in 1955, a relatively powerful political force was indeed formed, which was enough to effectively compete with the leftist forces. It was in an overwhelming dominant position and was able to govern stably for a long time.
But precisely because the Liberal Democratic Party was a political party born under this background, the various factional disputes or "clique" struggles within the party have been impossible to calm down since the founding of the party. It is originally a political group integrated under external pressure, and is bound to form a "husband" phenomenon around some important political figures within the two parties.
In 1955, the Liberal Democratic Party was established. Picture from Japanese Liberal Democratic Party website
Two important political figures should be mentioned here, Shigeru Yoshida and Ichiro Hatoyama . In fact, when it comes to Japanese politicians who are still on the stage, everyone should be familiar with these two people. The current Japanese Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Taro Aso ’s grandfather is Yoshida Shigeru, and the former Japanese Prime Minister Hatoyama Yukio ’s grandfather It's Ichiro Hatoyama. During his term in office, the latter experienced one of the two political party changes in postwar Japanese history - the first was the collapse of the Liberal Democratic Party in 1993 under the planning of Ichiro Ozawa. However, because there was no strong opposition party, the With the "Eight-Party Alliance"; the second time was when Yukio Hatoyama became prime minister in 2009. At that time, the Democratic Party was very strong and replaced the Liberal Democratic Party in power.
The evolution of the political stance of the Liberal Democratic Party represented by the two of them has continued to this day. There are still "doves" and "hawks" in the party. At that time, Ichiro Hatoyama's stance was more in favor of traditional Japanese values, while Shigeru Yoshida was more international.
Yoshida Shigeru was born as a bureaucrat in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. He played a pawn role to a certain extent in Japan's foreign aggression and expansion in the 1930s. Strictly speaking, he was guilty of historical original sin, but he was very critical of Japan's expansion policy after 1937. And he was opposed to it. For example, after the September 18th Incident, he exerted a bad influence during the establishment of the Puppet Manchukuo, but he also belonged to the so-called "non-expansion faction" in Japan. The idea of this group is that it is enough to hold on to Northeast China, and there is no need to go further. Launching a new war, Yoshida Shigeru was marginalized in Japanese politics after 1937.
On the other hand, because of Shigeru Yoshida's status as a diplomat, he has some personal channels with Britain and the United States.Grew, the U.S. ambassador to Japan, recorded some similar situations in "Ten Years in Japan". In late 1941 and early 1942, Japan and the United States went to war. As the ambassador, Grew was placed under house arrest. At that time, some Japanese friends who were close to him would quietly Send him food, and there may be people like Shigeru Yoshida among them.
However, it was precisely because Yoshida Shigeru was a marginalized political figure during the Pacific War that he was able to return to Japanese politics after 1945. Also because of this relationship, GHQ is relatively more at ease with these people and will not pursue the political responsibilities and war crimes he committed before the Pacific War, and will even let him take charge of post-war Japanese politics. Between 1945 and 1955, Yoshida Shigeru became the most important figure in Japanese politics.
From May 1946, when Shigeru Yoshida first formed a cabinet at the age of 68, to December 1954, except for the brief cabinets of Tetsu Katayama and Jun Ashida, Yoshida Shigeru formed the cabinet five times. During the existence of his regime, In the history of Japanese constitutional government, it is the long-term regime (2616 days) second only to Shinzo Abe, Katsura Taro, Eisaku Sato, and Hirobumi Ito. Picture from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan
In contrast, Ichiro Hatoyama has a stronger conservative background, and is more "dove" or more moderate in the Liberal Democratic Party; in his interactions with Americans, he obviously cannot be like Shigeru Yoshida. Long-sleeved, good at dancing, flexible and changeable, and more importantly "adhering to traditional Japanese values". And his so-called Japanese values are somewhat similar to Japan's current constitutional revisionists, because this group of people always believes that the current Japanese Constitution was revised under the will of the United States, so they have always advocated constitutional revision.
The Hatoyama family is a political family. In 2009, Yukio Hatoyama, the grandson of Ichiro Hatoyama, became the Prime Minister of Japan. The main reason why he was promoted to the prime ministership by the Democratic Party was that he was a major financial backer behind the Democratic Party. Yukio Hatoyama is a political figure with a distinctive personality. He is called an "alien" in Japan. He is so imaginative that the outside world often cannot guess what he is thinking. After becoming Prime Minister in 2009, he adopted a policy on Japan-US relations. A series of aggressive policies directly challenged the Japan-US alliance, calling for the "East Asia Community", relocating the US military's Futenma base in Okinawa, etc. From the perspective of the United States, these are almost shaking the political foundation of the Japan-US security alliance.
Therefore, many people still believe that Yukio Hatoyama’s resignation was the result of the influence exerted by the United States behind the scenes. At that time, the relocation plan of the Futenma base and important documents during the negotiations were supposed to be state secrets, but they were leaked by the Japanese media in advance. According to the recollections of Hatoyama and those around him, what he said the night before was immediately published by the media the next day. It was obvious that some people around him who were responsible for specific affairs or some bureaucrats deliberately leaked information to the media. Hit him politically.
When Yukio Hatoyama first came to power, Japanese society was well-received. First of all, the Liberal Democratic Party has been in power for too long, and the Japanese people have a really bad impression of the Liberal Democratic Party at that time. Secondly, he himself has a lot of aura. His grandfather, Ichiro Hatoyama, was the founder of the Liberal Democratic Party, but he defeated the Liberal Democratic Party. His mother was The daughter of Bridgestone Company, her family is powerful and wealthy. Their family has a bungalow in the best area of Tokyo. "Dove" means pigeon in Japanese. The entire building is carved with the image of pigeons, and it is called the "Pigeon's Palace". At that time, the Democratic Party had few sources of political funds, and Yukio Hatoyama was one of its major donors. However, as relations between Japan and the United States became tense, public opinion turned, and the relocation of the Futenma base could not be pushed forward, it fell.
To some extent, this setback caused Japan's opposition parties to be in a state of decline for a long time. For example, with the epidemic recurring in the past year or so, the Japanese people's support rate for the Liberal Democratic Party is very low, but the support rate for the opposition parties is even lower. For many people, the Liberal Democratic Party does have various problems, including corruption, conservatism, and arrogance. But at least the Liberal Democratic Party can still do things. If the opposition party comes to power, it may be difficult to even maintain the normal operation of the government.
Of course, in the longer term, the difficulty for the opposition parties to come to power is related to the shaping of Japan’s domestic political landscape and historical evolution after 1955.After the establishment of the "Fifth Five-Year System", Japan's conservative camp completed a major integration. Although there are factions within the party, which attack, defend and undermine each other, they can at least be unanimous in the election and maintain a majority in Congress for a long time.
On the contrary, divisions have often occurred within the leftist camp since the 1960s, and it has always been difficult to form a joint force at the congressional level to confront the Liberal Democratic Party. This problem continues to this day. Even before this upcoming congressional election, the Cadets shouted the slogan of "opposition parties fighting together," but the actual effect is still questionable. For example, whether to accept the participation of the Japanese Communist Party has always been a "dilemma."
For the opposition parties, the Japanese Communist Party is a very embarrassing "potential partner." Although the Japanese Communist Party is not large in scale, it has a strong fighting capacity and a stable support group. Over the past few decades, the image of the Japanese Communist Party has been shaped very strangely by the Japanese media, which has led to the Cadets taking a delicate position. They want the fighting power of the Japanese Communist Party, but do not want to be too tied to the Japanese Communist Party to avoid losing votes. However, in recent years, Japanese young people have also tended to "leftward". The best-selling book in Japan during this period is called "Capital in the New Age". The author is a young scholar named Yukihei Saito. , this book has sold more than 500,000 copies. It can be seen that the ideological trends of young people in Japan are also changing.
"Jiaofu War": The smell of money is in the air
After the formation of the "Fifth Five-Year System", factional evolution and struggle within the Liberal Democratic Party have always existed. The factional politics of the Liberal Democratic Party is institutionalized. A faction is an open political group that meets frequently. It may initially be in the name of a study meeting or seminar, and eventually form a political entity, and sometimes even have its own office, but this The entity belongs to the Liberal Democratic Party.
In the 1960s and 1970s, factional struggles were the most bloody and cruel. The most dramatic one was the "Jiaofu War", or there is another way of saying it, the "Triangle Dafu". The former refers to Tanaka Kakuei and Takeo Fukuda , while the latter refers to the four most important politicians in the Liberal Democratic Party at that time. Each of their names has one character, "three" is Miki Takeo , and "corner" It's Tanaka Kakuei, "big" is Dahira Masaoshi , and "fuku" is Takeo Fukuda. All four of them had served as Prime Ministers of Japan, and all had played an important role in the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan. They had good relations with the older generation of Chinese leaders at the time. As the leader of the four major factions,
basically dominated the political struggles within the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan in the 1970s. During every election, he performed various behind-the-scenes operations. The core dispute was the "Kakufu War." In the 1980s, Yasuhiro Nakasone came out to show off his skills.
During the 1972 Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, Tanaka Kakuei shook hands with Fukuda Takeo. Picture from Jiji News Agency
The backroom politics or money-power politics at that time were indeed very dirty. In the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election, those eligible to vote are all members of Congress, local party headquarters votes, and some party member votes. The main focus is to capture members of Congress, so each faction will count the number of members of Congress they have.
Just like those scenes you have seen in documentaries or film and television works, party bosses gather in high-end kiosks in Akasaka, Nagata Town, and other places to have a meal. In the parlance of Taiwan, China, they are "making glutinous rice balls." The boss discussed matters in the restaurant, while his subordinates opened a suite in the high-end hotel next door, called the "war room." So, while the big bosses were talking about things, they gave instructions to their subordinates in the "war room". Members who were willing to vote for them should go to a certain private room in a certain hotel and were not allowed to come out after entering. At that time, all communication was by landline, and subordinates from all parties would run around the room to answer the phone and report how many votes they had obtained. A politician once recalled that when a congressman walked into Tanaka Kakuei's war room, a black suitcase was directly placed in front of him. When he opened it, it was filled with money, which was equivalent to buying a ticket on the spot. Tanaka Kakuei's trusted member, Congressman Ozawa Tatsuminami, once said frankly that every Mid-Autumn Festival or New Year, Tanaka would give gifts to other members of Congress, not only members of the same faction as himself, but also members of other factions in the party. The number is about There are 200 people.
The reason why factions within the Liberal Democratic Party are able to form and control their party members for a long time is simply through the provision of political resources or funds. To participate in local elections, you need money and connections. For example, I am a small person from the countryside of Akita Prefecture, Japan. As a young member of the Liberal Democratic Party, I was elected to the National Assembly for the first time. Then I had to start occupying seats and paying homage to the dock. After that, various factions may come to you and give you some political resources and campaign funds to help you fight for re-election, or to coordinate the constituency in the next election. For example, although you were elected as a member of the Akita constituency this time, the assessment is that It is not safe for the next term to be re-elected in this constituency, and the faction is stronger in another constituency, so let you move to that constituency. This is done to ensure that the political career of members in Congress can be long-term and to give emerging members greater appeal and therefore choose to join a certain faction. After
members join, they also have their own obligations. For example, in this presidential election, you must vote according to the instructions of the faction. It may not be to support your own faction leader. It may be that the faction boss has reached some kind of compromise. This time If you support A and support B next time, members must follow the instructions to vote. Once someone is found to be running away from votes, we will wait and see in the next election.
This method of factional politics was very effective in the elections at that time, especially in the mid-term electoral district system before the 1990s. The mid-electoral district means that several candidates can be produced in the same electoral district. As a member of the Liberal Democratic Party, it is very important to be able to squeeze into the LDP candidate list; because relatively speaking, in the mid-electoral district, the votes of voters from different political factions are generally not large. Flow, if I choose Socialist Party I will choose the Socialist Party, and if I choose the Liberal Democratic Party, I will choose the Liberal Democratic Party. There are very few "rebellions", so the Liberal Democratic Party candidates can hardly attract votes from other support groups, such as right-wing conservative groups. To canvass votes, but it is impossible to get votes from the Communist Party. In this way, if a party member cannot become the party's recommended candidate, it basically means that it is impossible to be elected. Under the electoral district system in
, for example, four members of Congress can be elected in a certain district. The usual electoral structure is that the strongest candidate of the Liberal Democratic Party is elected first in the district, and the second place is a candidate of the Socialist Party, because the left-wing votes Give it all to him, and then the third and fourth candidates may still be the Liberal Democratic Party. This is equivalent to the fact that each of the three major factions can choose one of their own candidates.
However, after the introduction of the small electoral district system in the mid-to-late 1990s, only one person can be elected, which means that as long as you are a person promoted by the Liberal Democratic Party, you can be elected without any suspense. But it also means that faction factions have a lot less resources to allocate. There used to be a lot of seats for their own people, but now the original pattern of small parties and big factions has suddenly changed. The Liberal Democratic Party is the largest, and faction factions are no longer so important. Therefore, after the reform of the constituency system, the number of non-sectarian members of the Liberal Democratic Party has increased. For example, the current Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has always claimed that he is non-sectarian. As of now, there are approximately 68 members of Congress who are non-sectarian. If the no-faction faction is considered a faction, it is the second largest in the Liberal Democratic Party, second only to the Hosoda faction.
It should be noted that not having a faction does not mean that one is absolutely non-conforming. He or she will still be relatively close to certain politicians or factions, and sometimes they will act together.
Going back to the "Kakufuku War", Tanaka Kakuei ran a construction company before entering politics and was successfully elected as a member of the parliament in Japan's second post-war general election in 1947, which was also the first election held under the Japanese Peace Constitution. Since then, he has successively held positions such as Chairman of the Political Consultative Conference and Secretary-General within the party. He has also served as Minister of Postal Affairs, Minister of Finance, Minister of International Trade and Industry, etc. in several cabinets. It can be said that he is powerful and wealthy.
As a former builder, Tanaka Kakuei is very enthusiastic about legislative work in land development, residential construction and transportation network construction, so he is nicknamed "Tanaka Earthwork Representative", "Earthwork" means civil engineering. Tanaka Kakuei boasted of two major political achievements during his tenure, one was the normalization of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, and the other was the transformation of the Japanese archipelago and infrastructure construction. There are many gray spaces in this.For example, over-construction of highways, even in sparsely populated areas, is because construction companies give rebates to politicians after winning bids, and politicians rely on these gray incomes for political operations.
Tanaka Kakuei's main experience picture comes from nippon.com
Furthermore, the biggest difference between Tanaka Kakuei and Japanese politicians such as Yoshida Shigeru and Kishi Nobusuke is that Tanaka has a completely grass-roots background and graduated from elementary school. Many of his methods are "wild ways" and are full of market sentiment. "wisdom". Of course, you can say that he is very philistine, but he doesn't care, and is even proud of it, which is different from the elites of traditional political families.
If you know Japanese, you can search for Tanaka Kakuei’s street speeches online. He speaks with an accent and his voice is thick and rough, but it is easy to be impressed by him because he speaks grassroots language and has no policy words. He gets close to ordinary people on the streets, criticizes politicians in high positions for not understanding the sentiments of the people, and creates the feeling that we are one family. People love him for this. For Tanaka himself, it is also like a duck in water. Of course, success or failure depends on this. Tanaka Kakuei's method later led to many political corruption cases, such as the Lockheed case, for which Tanaka also paid a huge price. As the former Prime Minister of Japan, he was arrested and later withdrew from the Liberal Democratic Party; and after a protracted 20-year trial in this corruption case, Tanaka Kakuei was finally convicted in 1995, nearly two years after Tanaka died of illness.
On the other hand, Takeo Fukuda, graduated from the University of Tokyo , started out as a civil servant in the Ministry of Japan, and later served as secretary to politicians, which is completely elite; in contrast, Tanaka Kakuei is a country boy. Therefore, you can imagine how fierce the struggle between the two was. It was basically the main theme within the Liberal Democratic Party in the 1960s and 1970s. You can also think of it as a struggle between two lines within the Liberal Democratic Party.
This may explain why Japan's prime minister changes relatively quickly. On the one hand, it is due to Japan's political election mechanism, and on the other hand, the factional ecology of the Liberal Democratic Party determines that it is difficult for the prime minister to rule for a long time, because the factions restrain each other, compromise with each other, and take turns taking charge. Therefore, it is very rare for people like Yasuhiro Nakasone, Junichiro Koizumi, and Shin Abe to be in power for a long time, and they are anomalies in Japanese politics. Under normal circumstances, it is relatively normal for a prime minister to serve a term of about two years. If he can complete a four-year term, it is already a good result.
If a certain faction chooses a prime minister whose term is too long, it will easily become a target for other factions to attack. For example, Shinzo Abe's faction is the "Hosoda faction", which belongs to the conservative faction. Because he has been in power for a long time, no one from the Hosoda faction came out in the last election, otherwise other factions would be intolerable. After Abe resigned last year, Yoshihide Suga came to power. The author once wrote an article to analyze that Yoshihide Suga came to power largely because of his non-sectarian status, which gave other factions the opportunity and time to continue to share the cake, because they It is judged that it is difficult for Yoshihide Suga to become a long-term regime.
Organization chart of the Liberal Democratic Party
"Koizumi Theater Show": Political Polarization
Although Tanaka Kakuei was not prime minister for a long time, it profoundly affected the entire Japanese political scene in the 1970s; he has long played the role of "Kingmaker" behind the scenes, and this set of The practice affected another person - Ichiro Ozawa.
Ozawa Ichiro can be regarded as a direct disciple of Tanaka Kakuei. He entered the leadership of the Liberal Democratic Party in his forties and had the opportunity to compete for the positions of president and prime minister of the Liberal Democratic Party, but he seems to have been obsessed with being a "kingmaker." Ozawa Ichiro's biggest political enemy is Takeshita Nobu, who once served as prime minister, and the "Takeshita faction" originating from him still exists today. After Noboru Takeshita became prime minister, Ichiro Ozawa felt a little disillusioned, which to a certain extent contributed to the defeat of the Liberal Democratic Party in 1993.
In June 1993, Ozawa and Hata Azumi5 together led 44 members of the Liberal Democratic Party in the House and Senate to withdraw from the Liberal Democratic Party; then they gathered eight opposition parties to form a coalition government, shouting the slogan "Not a liberal democracy, not a communist", with the only goal of overthrowing the Liberal Democratic Party. of governance. The ultimate goal was indeed achieved, but the eight-party coalition was also short-lived and ended after several prime ministers including Hata Tsutomu and Murayama Tomiichi.
Before the reform of the small electoral district system, Japanese politics experienced a very chaotic and turbulent period; from the Heisei era in 1989 until 1995, the prime minister was almost constantly changing. The then U.S. Ambassador to Japan made this comment when reporting to the country: I had been working as an ambassador in Japan for less than two years, and I had already met four prime ministers. It was not until the return of the Liberal Democratic Party in 1995 that Ryutaro Hashimoto became prime minister, ending the eight-party rule.
Ozawa Ichiro information picture comes from . Hashimoto Ryutaro was followed by Obuchi Keizo, but Obuchi passed away due to cerebral hemorrhage during his tenure as prime minister. The Liberal Democratic Party first aid chapter launched Yoshiro Mori as president to take over the post of prime minister. I believe everyone knows something about Yoshiro Mori when watching the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. He served as the president of the Japanese Olympic Organizing Committee, but later resigned due to various inappropriate, bizarre and discriminatory remarks.
Yoshiro Mori's coming to power has greatly highlighted a major drawback of factional politics. Yoshiro Mori is a senior lawmaker and a big boss in the party, but he won the position of prime minister without passing either the intra-party election or the national election. This was completely the result of bargaining between the major factions.
The faction that Yoshiro Mori belonged to was the "Hosoda faction", which was called the "Mori faction" at the time. He is indeed a master of "making glutinous rice balls" in intra-party politics, and can effectively balance the forces of various factions. However, when facing the public or formal occasions, he is somewhat unsociable and lacks personal charm. He often makes wild remarks in public speeches, such as " "Japan is the country of God" and other inexplicable remarks. The fact that such a person can become prime minister is determined by Japan's system. As long as the Liberal Democratic Party thinks you are next, nothing else matters. During Yoshiro Mori's tenure, the support rate of the Liberal Democratic Party fell to the bottom. It had no choice but to hold an early presidential election. At this time, the "political weirdo" Junichiro Koizumi appeared on the stage.
On September 4, 2005, the then Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi canvassed votes for Yuriko Koike who was running for the House of Representatives election at a campaign rally near Ikebukuro Station in Tokyo. ( . After this round of tossing, there are indeed some "results". For example, if he disagrees with the policies of some Liberal Democratic Party bosses, he will "send assassins" to the constituencies to "assassinate" them. This means picking a young party member during the election to go to the constituencies of these bosses to disrupt them. Because the small electoral district system had been changed at this time, only one person could be elected from the district. The original members of this district could continue to run, but Koizumi, as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, could send other party members to compete. Koizumi recruited a number of young and female members of the Liberal Democratic Party, including Yuriko Koike, who was called "Koizumi's children" by the media.
This approach indeed muddied the waters and changed the political ecology within the party. However, in hindsight, it did not really shake the foundation of factional politics. It was more like allowing the younger generation of politicians to debut earlier.
Objectively, Junichiro Koizumi created the so-called "theatre political show" era. After the introduction of small electoral districts in the 1990s, a new situation gradually formed. The Liberal Democratic Party became larger and larger, and the opposition between the left and the right became increasingly clear. In the past, under large electoral districts, there was competition between candidates. Now, the level of the candidates has become irrelevant. Just like the "Koizumi children" and other young people, your personal political opinions are not important. I am the president, and I will give it to you. The greatest political power is . Go to the constituency platform that you need to "assassinate" every day to support elections. As a result, a paradigm was indirectly formed, namely Junichiro Koizumi's "theatre politics". The personalized and flattering media strategy of a political party leader became very important, but the specific policies, ideology, etc. of the party were no longer so important.
It may be mentioned here that when Junichiro Koizumi first ran for president, his opponent was Ryutaro Hashimoto, who was a big boss in the party and had deep political power within the party.So, Koizumi did several things. First, he recruited Tanaka Kakuei's daughter Tanaka Makiko. The personality of Tanaka Kakuei's daughter is a bit like Park Geun-hye , and she is also the true biography of Tanaka Kakuei. Therefore, public opinion very much likes the image of Tanaka Makiko and Koizumi Junichiro singing in harmony, and their famous sentences frequently come out, setting off a media whirlwind. Traditional politicians like Ryutaro Hashimoto have fallen out of favor in the media.
Tanaka Makiko (left), the heroine known as "Koizumi Theater" Picture from fnn.jp
Although the Liberal Democratic Party presidential election is an intra-party election, if there is a congressional election immediately afterwards, the importance and complexity of the presidential election will be Sex will be amplified. Because for Liberal Democratic Party members, if the public opinion image of the president is better, it will be beneficial to his personal election next time, which will cause more and more members to vote for Koizumi. Coupled with Koizumi's public opinion tactics, the overwhelming public opinion finally overwhelmed Ryutaro Hashimoto and was successfully elected as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party. Later, he used the same model to defeat the opposition parties and secure the throne of prime minister.
Koizumi’s main rhetoric at that time was, “Anyone who opposes me is opposed to reform and Japan’s new future.” Japanese political commentator Masayasu Hosaka once criticized this method in his book "History of Heisei" for causing political polarization, without a middle ground, and causing everyone to be very excited.
In 2005, Koizumi pushed for postal reform, but members of the Liberal Democratic Party rebelled and had to dissolve Congress and call for an early election. However, in order to deal with these rebels, he sent a group of "assassins" like Yuriko Koike, and the results were astonishing. But at this time, Koizumi retreated bravely and handed over the baton to Abe.
In fact, this is also a problem of Koizumi's "theater politics". He did not, like Abe later, modify the presidential election method to allow himself to obtain a longer term. He just left when his term was up, which is indeed more personal; but at the same time, it also makes it difficult for Shinzo Abe or Yasuo Fukuda or other politicians to take over the mantle of "Koizumi Theater" because his reputation in public opinion is too high. The people behind you can't catch it at all. Abe faced this dilemma when he started his first term in 2006. More than a year later, many problems were exposed and he finally had to resign. From this point of view, Koizumi may be the most important and powerful president of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party after 2000.
In comparison, although Abe has been in power for a long time, he has mostly used the gaps between various factions to stabilize his long-term regime. Another very important point is that Abe has made great changes in the Japanese bureaucracy, taking the lifeblood of promotion in the bureaucracy into his own hands, thus taming the bureaucracy.
As an aside, in addition to taming bureaucrats, Abe does have a "unique secret" in political operations: he has strong political judgment and is sure of the timing of elections. He is worthy of being nurtured by a political family. of. In comparison, Yoshihide Suga's ability to grasp this aspect is very weak, and he has repeatedly missed the best opportunity to dissolve parliament.
Distribution of factions among Liberal Democratic Party members of parliament (Wikipedia, August 2021)
"Koizumi reappears"? The generational battle within the Liberal Democratic Party
After Yoshihide Suga announced his resignation, the drama of the Liberal Democratic Party's presidential election began. The four candidates who have officially announced their candidacy are Fumio Kishida , Takaichi Sanae , Taro Kono and Seiko Noda . The specific election schedule is to announce on September 17 and vote on September 29. The results should be available on the same day. The voters include Liberal Democratic Party members of Congress, local party members and party members. If there is no winner in this round, that is, no one can get more than 50% of the votes, a second round of voting will be held, with the top two vote-getters facing off. If
enters the second round of voting. Then the situation will be more delicate. Where the votes for the eliminated candidates in the first round go will become the key to victory; at the same time, local party members and party members cannot participate in the second round of voting. For example, Shinzo Abe has competed with Shigeru Ishiba many times. Ishiba is often more popular in local areas and gets more local votes, but he just can't win among members of Congress.
Therefore, the number of candidates will directly affect the direction of the first round of voting. Some people who are good at "conspiracy" can deliberately incite and encourage more people to run in order to prevent someone from breaking through 50% in the first round. Spread the vote so that those who were originally in second place can have more opportunities in the second round of voting, because only members of Congress will vote in the second round, making it easier to engage in backroom politics. Therefore, some people think that Sanae Takaichi or Seiko Noda may be the role responsible for this "task".
html On September 17, in Tokyo, Japan, Japanese Liberal Democratic Party presidential election candidates Kono Taro, Kishida Fumio, Takaichi Sanae and Noda Seiko (from left to right) took a group photo at the press conference after their campaign speeches. Picture from Xinhua News Agency The candidates running this time have their own characteristics. First of all, Kishida Fumio, who was the first to announce his candidacy, is more like the aforementioned Ryutaro Hashimoto. His "Kishida faction" currently has 46 people. Members of Congress, ranking third and fourth in the Liberal Democratic Party, are considered big faction figures themselves.
In recent years, the relationship between Fumio Kishida and Taro Aso, Toshihiro Nikai, , and Shinzo Abe has been pretty good, and they are basically equidistant from the big guys of all parties. If Abe had not resigned temporarily last year, but had "retired after his achievements", many people believe that the position of president is likely to be passed to him; that is to say, according to the seniority within the party or the traditional political inertia of the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida is the most popular A suitable and solid candidate for president.
But because of the interlude of Yoshihide Suga, his succession path was disrupted. News reports at the time said that when Abe suddenly announced his resignation, Kishida was participating in a political event in another place and was very excited, thinking that it was finally his turn. But I didn't expect that Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai was "making glutinous rice balls" behind the scenes and exposed Yoshihide Suga.
The second person to announce her candidacy is Takaichi Sanae. Her position is very clear. She is Abe’s spokesperson and even a megaphone. If Yoshihide Suga is more like the moon, mainly reflecting the shadows of those who collaborate with him, then Sanae Takaichi is 100% Abe’s puppet. Previously, a reporter asked her very directly at a press conference, does electing you mean electing Abe? She refused to answer the question in great embarrassment. Takaichi Sanae even launched "Sanae Economics" at the policy level, which is almost identical to " Abenomics "; in addition, he insisted on visiting the Yasukuni Shrine and also proposed amending the constitution. Moreover, as a female politician, she does not recognize a female emperor and opposes surnames for husband and wife, leading some commentators to say that her ideology is simply that of the most conservative "big man".
Some people originally analyzed whether the first female prime minister candidate would attract more female votes, but if Sanae is Takaichi, this may not be the case, and it may even have the opposite effect. Overall, she is unlikely to be elected, but she may have the effect of disrupting the situation. At this point, Noda Seiko's situation is somewhat similar to Takaichi Sanae's, that is, it is unlikely that she will be elected, but there is a possibility of "splitting votes." In comparison, most of Noda's policies are exactly the opposite of those in the high market.
Finally, there is Taro Kono. To some extent, he is very similar to Junichiro Koizumi back then. First, he lacks political roots within the party. Although he is a member of the "Aso School", and the "Aso School" was passed down to Taro Aso from his father, Yohei Kono, he may be "returned" to Taro Kono in the future, but now is definitely not the time. Besides, Aso's attitude towards Kono is very ambiguous now. When Yoshihide Suga was "dying" before, he hoped to increase his popularity through personnel adjustments within the party and cabinet reorganization. For example, Toshihiro Nikai gave up the post of secretary-general and considered letting Taro Kono take over, but after discussing this with Taro Aso, At the time of the incident, Aso threw a sentence to Suga Yoshihide: You are already a sinking ship, don't drag Kono onto the ship with you. From this point of view, Aso is taking care of Kono.
But on the other hand, there are recent media reports that Kono visited Taro Aso about his candidacy, hoping to get unanimous support from the Aso faction. As of now, Taro Aso and the "Aso faction" have not yet agreed on a unified statement, so it is very likely that in this presidential election, the "Aso faction" will vote independently, that is, they will not give unified instructions.As a result, Aso's attitude does not seem to be that supportive, and he even explicitly warned Taro Kono that even if you become prime minister, it is likely to be a short-lived regime.
In addition, some senior leaders in the Liberal Democratic Party have a conflicting attitude towards Kono. On the one hand, after all, his father left a legacy of political factions, and everyone will take care of Kono, but on the other hand, they are afraid that Kono will not be able to control him when he becomes big. Therefore, we are very close to Kono, both guarding against and using him.
Taro Aso warned Taro Kono that even if he becomes prime minister, it will be a short-lived regime.
Taro Kono himself is a very unique person. He had elected the president of the Liberal Democratic Party as early as 2009. At that time, he had never been a minister of state, and he was just a young party member who dared to elect the president. As a result, he got more than 100 votes, which shows that this person's personality is that he dares to think and act. Moreover, he has long publicly stated that his goal is to become the Prime Minister of Japan. This is very different from the traditional style of Japanese society. He has never concealed his political ambitions. His logic is that since he has chosen the path of being a politician, he must of course be eyeing the position of prime minister, so there is no need to hide his political ambitions.
In addition, Taro Kono is one of the few Japanese politicians who has a relatively international outlook. This is related to his experience in the United States. He can speak fluent English with almost no accent. From this point of view, he is also an acceptable candidate for the United States. Furthermore, with a younger personal image and more fashionable clothing, it is easier to win the favor of female voters.
Taro Kono answers questions on Twitter
The most important thing is that he loves and is good at the Internet and social media. He has 2.3 million followers on Twitter in Japan, the highest among all Japanese parliamentarians. When he was chatting with a Japanese political reporter, he publicly said that he was the best user of smartphones in the Liberal Democratic Party. The first thing he did when meeting a reporter was to add him as a Twitter friend. Kono is very keen to answer questions from netizens on Twitter and also conducts online live broadcasts. When he visited China as Foreign Minister, he took a selfie with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying and posted it on Twitter, which received collective likes from Japanese netizens.
His behavior is very popular among young people. According to current polls, his support rate among those aged 20 to 45 is far ahead. A recent candidate comprehensive support poll showed that Kono ranked first, about 30%. Therefore, from this perspective, Kono Taro is very similar to Junichiro Koizumi in the 2000s. Interestingly, Junichiro Koizumi’s son Shinjiro Koizumi also publicly announced his support for Taro Kono’s candidacy for president.
Shinjiro Koizumi expresses his support for Taro Kono
Our observation point after that is whether Kono can suddenly emerge in the intra-party vote at the end of September and convert his high popularity into intra-party support. This involves young members of the Liberal Democratic Party and a group of congressmen with relatively weak support. They may be more inclined to Taro Kono because the congressional election is about to take place. Judging from the current situation, if Kono becomes president, the Liberal Democratic Party will definitely have an advantage in the subsequent House of Representatives elections. In comparison, Fumio Kishida may be in a state of neither adding points nor deducting points. To be honest, the Liberal Democratic Party has been in power for a long time, and the people are always a little tired and rebellious. Compared with old-school politicians like Kishida, Kono has high expectations.
But on the other hand, a group of "old-schoolers" in the Liberal Democratic Party still have deep prejudices against Taro Kono. For example, Amari Akira, who used to be the chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party's Political Consultative Committee, has publicly made some very vicious complaints, such as "Look I don’t understand why Kono’s approval rate is so high. Isn’t he responsible for the vaccine? The vaccine rollout was so bad before.” But in this regard, Kono’s own statement is that the current vaccine rollout rate is also due to him. A few days ago, he said in an interview with TBS Evening News that the current coverage rate of the second dose of the vaccine is almost the same as that in the United States.
Another variable related to Taro Kono is Shigeru Ishiba, who recently publicly expressed his support for Kono. Ishiba is very interesting. He has been outside the mainstream of the party for a long time, but his eloquence and knowledge are quite good. His views on relevant policy issues may even be more enlightened than those of Abe and Aso.But Abe and Aso hate Ishiba very much, so now Ishiba's high-profile support for Kono will definitely cause a headache for the party bosses. Next, it depends on how much endorsement Kono can get from the main factions of the Liberal Democratic Party, and it also depends on whether the young congressmen will continue to rebel against the older generation for their own electoral interests.
Based on this background, we can understand this Liberal Democratic Party presidential election as a generational war within the Liberal Democratic Party. From Shinzo Abe to Yoshihide Suga, a series of negative policies and news have given the public too many bad feelings. Therefore, the Liberal Democratic Party urgently needs a politician who is distant from them to stand up and have an innovative attitude.
However, regardless of the outcome of this presidential election, the factional politics of the Liberal Democratic Party has continued since the founding of the party in 1955. As long as the Liberal Democratic Party continues to be the dominant party, this state will continue. Because in the final analysis, it is still a question of resource allocation. As long as the positions of legislators, cabinet members, and CEOs are there, the battle over allocation will never stop.
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