The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered its 141st day. Russia and Ukraine have launched fierce shelling over the territory of Donetsk and Kherson . According to the news released by the Russian army, the Ukrainian army launched a fierce bombardment on Hel controlled by the Russian army. The city of Novokakhovka in the Song area was violently bombarded with M777 howitzers provided by the United States, causing dozens of casualties. The Ukrainian side said the move was to combat Russia's attack on Novokakhovka. Ammunition depot .
In the direction of Donetsk, Ukraine claimed that the Russian army carried out heavy night shelling on Bakhmu. The current overall situation is that Russia and Ukraine are engaged in an artillery war. The Ukrainian army used the M142 multiple rocket launchers and M777 howitzers provided by the United States to cause a lot of trouble to the Russian army. The Russian army is increasing artillery shelling and air strikes in Donetsk. On the 141st day of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there are three new news worth interpreting.
First news: The governor of Donetsk said that the Russian army is undergoing a large-scale build-up to prepare for an attack on Slavyansk and Kramatorsk
Pavlo Kirilenko as Donetsk The governor's understanding of the frontline war is relatively accurate. After the Russian army captured Lugansk , they basically did not carry out too high-intensity ground advancement in the past week. Instead, they carried out air strikes and artillery bombardments to maximize the Destroy the effective forces of the Ukrainian army, and then the armored group advances.
Controlling Donbass is the second stage goal of the special military operation formulated by Russia. This means that the Russian army must take over the entire territory of Donetsk. Although the Ukrainian army is still resisting, the defeat has been determined. In absolute terms In the face of strength, the resistance of the Ukrainian army can only last for a while.
①. The Ukrainian army currently has too few long-range strike weapons. It is unrealistic to defeat the Russian army with the help of more than a dozen multiple rocket launcher systems supported by the United States and Britain. After all, the Russian army has many more means to attack the Ukrainian army than the Ukrainian army does to attack the Russian army. The Russian army can use artillery shelling, air strikes and ballistic missiles to attack, while the Ukrainian army relies on artillery at high speed.
Of course, a fact that cannot be ignored is that although the United States and Britain did not provide many multiple rocket launcher systems to Ukraine, they were all successfully transferred to the front line. It must be said that the Russian army's reconnaissance capabilities are very low. It is not difficult to understand why many Russian fighter jets and helicopters were shot down at the beginning of the war, because it was difficult for the Russian army to detect the ambushing Ukrainian army and there was too little reconnaissance aircraft.
②. After losing all of Lugansk, the morale of the Ukrainian army is low, and the support of Europe and the United States for Ukraine has also declined recently, especially EU . On the occasion of the first anniversary maintenance of the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline in Russia, Russia Germany has been notified that it will be maintained for ten days, which means that Nord Stream 1 will not transport natural gas within ten days. If the EU continues to cause trouble in the Ukrainian battlefield at this time, Russia will not rule out extending the natural gas maintenance time to retaliate against the EU.
The problem facing the West now is no longer as simple as the EU's natural gas shortage. US President Biden has lowered his head to go to Saudi Arabia. The purpose is very clear, which is to hope that Saudi Arabia can increase oil production.
The energy pressure faced by the West has increased social costs. The UK is now facing a shortage of rebar due to sanctions against Russia. The backlash caused by sanctions against Russia will be difficult to solve in the short term. In the long term, if the EU really It is indeed not good news for Russia to be able to get rid of its dependence on Russian natural gas, but at present, no country can provide such a large share. Against this background, it is conceivable that the West’s support for Ukraine will not be enough to defeat the Russian offensive.
③. Russia is preparing to purchase hundreds of drones from Iran and put them into the battlefield. Iran now has enough drones and will be able to provide Russia with large-scale drones in the short term. Once these drones are put into the battlefield , which will greatly promote the improvement of the Russian army's reconnaissance and combat capabilities. By then, the Ukrainian army's advantage of using jungles and terrain to ambush will be greatly reduced.
Although Russia also has the ability to develop and manufacture drones, the number is completely insufficient. Iran's drones are low-cost and only in large enough quantities, the losses are completely bearable for Russia. It is understandable that Russia made this choice. The technical level of the Russia-Ukraine conflict was not very high. Artillery and tanks still served as the main force in ground warfare. Only at this time did simple drones come into play.
The second news: Putin will visit Tehran
Putin will visit Tehran at this time, indicating that there is a great possibility of military trade cooperation between Russia and Iran. And recently, Biden also went to the Middle East , which is obviously part of the game between the United States and Russia. The United States wants to recruit its followers to deal with Iran, while Russia takes the opportunity to cooperate more extensively with Iran.
Whether it is on the Syrian battlefield or in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the shadow of Middle Eastern countries is everywhere. Turkey is currently inviting Russia and Ukraine to negotiate on Ukraine’s grain exports, and Saudi Arabia’s increase in oil production has also become the focus of the United States. The root of these is the geopolitical struggle between the United States and Russia.
Iran is a traditional user of Russian weapons. Iran is now facing the upgrade of air defense missiles and fighter jets, and Russia can provide Iran with these weapons and equipment. Iran may not have had enough money to buy it before, but it is different now. Iran can completely exchange it with its own drones. This possibility cannot be ruled out.
The third news: Ukrainian President Zelensky said: The outcome of the war is certain, and Russia does not have the courage to admit defeat.
I have to say that Zelensky can still say such things now. It is obviously no longer the case. Being rational, even after losing so much territory, he can still say that the outcome of the war is certain, and point the losing side to Russia. This is very blind. Zelensky himself probably believes this. Even the Ukrainian army knows the gap between itself and the Russian army.
Ukraine is now a bottomless pit. The United States provided an additional $1.7 billion in economic assistance to Ukraine on Tuesday, and the European Union has also begun to provide Ukraine with the first tranche of 1 billion euros of the 9 billion euro rescue plan. It can be seen that the West is now investing The cost of traveling to Ukraine, especially to the United States, is significant.
Even with such generous assistance, it can only maintain the resistance of the Ukrainian army and cannot change the overall direction of the battlefield at all. And this cannot be ruled out as Ukraine’s “resistance” in order to stabilize Western aid. If the West “cuts off” its aid, will the Ukrainian army be completely defeated?
Russia and Ukraine are about to face a decisive battle in Donbas. As long as the Russian army captures Slavyansk, it means that the Ukrainian army will not be able to hold on to Donetsk. After the entire Donbas falls, we will see whether the Ukrainian army can hold on. Kharkiv , Nikolayev and Odessa . It seems that the Russia-Ukraine conflict may not end this year.
