The world is like a chess game, full of surprises and surprises. During this period, a series of farces and tragedies occurred in the world. First, Johnson and Johnson were jointly "forced into the palace", and they had no choice but to withdraw from British politics. Then, Abe was assassinated, and the whole country in Japan was grieved.
Almost at the same time, the negotiations on the Iran nuclear agreement changed again. The United States imposed new sanctions on Iran . Not to be outdone, Iran retaliated in kind and arrested "suspicious characters" including British diplomats on the grounds of "espionage".
The sudden changes in the international situation can't help but make people sigh: This is really an era of constant changes.
When the world is paying attention to the earthquake in the British political arena and the assassination of Shinzo Abe , the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has also ushered in new variables. Lithuania , which will not hit the south wall and never look back, completely angered Russia. Germany, which refused to push Russia to the cliff, has reversed its attitude. There are at least two new trends in
worth noting.
Trend 1: Russia is preparing to retaliate against Lithuania. Starting from July 10, Lithuania will ban more Russian goods from its mainland to Kaliningrad in accordance with the requirements of the EU sanctions against Russia. Prior to this, the Russian Foreign Ministry had warned Lithuania and the European Union that if the situation could not be restored to stability, Russia would take tough measures, and Moscow was ready.
Kaliningrad has prepared a counterattack plan to "respond to the Lithuanian blockade", emphasizing that this plan will cause a devastating blow to Lithuania.
Russia emphasized on July 8 that the EU has promised to solve this problem soon, but Russia will not wait forever.
Judging from Lithuania's choice, this EU member state with NATO support obviously does not care about Putin 's tough signal. Lithuania seems to believe that Russia will not take serious action against NATO member states. But Russia's meaning is clear: If Lithuania does not know how to exercise restraint, Russia will never show mercy.
The reason why Russia issued an "ultimatum" to Lithuania is closely related to the backyard fire. At present, countries such as Kazakhstan are competing with Russia for the oil and gas market, and Kazakhstan intends to follow Lithuania's example and ban some Russian goods from passing through Kazakhstan. This is equivalent to challenging Putin's bottom line.
The reason why Kazakhstan is so confident may be related to Russia’s delay in retaliating against Lithuania. Regarding Lithuania, Russia made many harsh words but took few practical actions. This gave Kazakhstan and other countries the confidence to cause trouble for Russia.
Today is different from the past. Whether it is to give Lithuania a blow, to give a warning to the EU and NATO, or to scare the monkeys and deter Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries, Putin will take action.
If not, the world will inevitably think that Russia is easy to bully.
Putin once said that if is discussed a thousand times on the negotiating table, it may not be effective if bomber flaps its wings once. Sometimes, you can't win the respect of your opponent by simply being patient. Take action when it's time to take action, and always use your sword when encountering an enemy. This is the Russian style.
Should enough be enough, or continue to provoke Russia? Lithuania should think twice before doing so. In the final analysis, there is no turning back. After Russia launches retaliation and the United States sits idly by, it will be too late for Lithuania to regret it.
Trend 2: Germany’s attitude has changed, Schroeder and Merkel are likely to come back. On July 10, France issued a warning that Russia is likely to stop exports of natural gas to the EU, and France must be prepared. German Chancellor Scholz said on the 9th that energy shortages may affect Germany for several years. In a short period of time, Germany has made a lot of preparations to solve the energy crisis. But in the long term, Germany should find more and more suitable energy exporters and expand the use of renewable energy.
On the surface, Germany seems to be unhurried, but in fact, under the current circumstances, if Putin really "ends the life" of the EU, the price Germany will pay will be immeasurable.In order to alleviate the urgent need, Germany has told Canada many times that the fittings of the " Nord Stream 1" pipeline should be returned as soon as possible. Only in this way will Russia resume natural gas supplies to Germany.
Putin reduced natural gas supply to the EU, firstly because Canada is creating obstacles for Germany and Russia, and secondly because he wants to teach Germany a lesson so that Germany can become self-aware. Judging from the results, Russia has indeed gained a lot.
Germany did not forget to hint at Russia, saying that in 2021, it only took 10 days for Russia to repair the "Beixi 1" pipeline. This time, Russia should take about the same amount of time.
The implication of Germany is nothing more than: Canada has promised Germany, is about to return the natural gas pipeline parts that Russia needs, Russia should not give Germany any more power.
The problem is that even if Canada sends a "big gift" to Russia, Putin will not necessarily make concessions to Germany and the EU, because Germany does not cooperate with the United States in targeting Russia.
For Germany, the top priority is to work hard to import natural gas before the cold winter arrives to avoid freezing.
It is worth mentioning that former German Prime Minister Schroeder and Merkel also chose to come forward.
Previously, the German Bundestag had sanctioned Schroeder, including depriving Schroeder of some of his benefits, for refusing to withdraw from Rosneft , insisting on speaking out for Putin, and calling on the EU to maintain dialogue with Russia. Pensions and security personnel were left behind.
Many German politicians believe that Schroeder refuses to listen to advice and still insists on a "pro-Russian" stance, which is obviously a problem with the EU, and Schroeder should be withdrawn from the German Social Democratic Party. Many German media mocked Scholz and called him "Putin's man."
Under such circumstances, Schroeder was still able to resist the pressure and expressed his willingness to talk to Putin. also emphasized that it is indeed not easy to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict through negotiation.
Someone who holds a similar position to Schroeder is the Iron Lady Merkel. During this period, Merkel often spoke out on the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Merkel believed that it was impossible to isolate a world power like Russia. Germany and the EU should talk to Putin, and the EU should maintain trade with Russia.
Merkel also condemned Scholz. In Merkel's view, Germany should not stop "Beixi 2", and should not provide weapons for Ukraine . Although Merkel's position is to support Ukraine, Merkel insists that the decision not to allow Ukraine to join NATO was not wrong.
Merkel also released a signal of "willingness to return to the world", but there are several prerequisites, that is, Germany and Ukraine must invite her to be a mediator, and "the time must be right." Merkel believes that now is not the best time to mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Only when Russia and Ukraine are willing to sit down and talk will it be time to step forward as a mediator.
Of course, neither Schroeder nor Merkel will have a chance to make a comeback. After all, it is Scholz who is in charge of Germany. Generally speaking, Zelensky will not extend invitations to Schröder and Merkel, and Scholz will not leave Merkel with the opportunity to show off his talents.
So far, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than four months. With the continuous fanning of the United States, this protracted war may drag on into the cold winter. At that time, the United States will be able to better rip off the EU.
The result of continued fighting can only be that Russia and Ukraine will both suffer losses, the EU will suffer, and the United States will be happy on the sidelines. Endless war can only bring casualties, suffering and catastrophe. Once the conflict between Russia and Ukraine spills over, more and more forces will be affected. It is wise for the United States, Russia and the European Union to maintain restraint. It's time for this war of
to come to an end.
