Talking about the situation in the world, if we unite for a long time, we will be divided and we will unite for a long time. Where there are people, there will be conflicts, and where there are countries, there will be disputes. Nowadays, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has become a game of global attention. Not long ago, Russian President Putin just announced that it recognized the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine.
This announcement directly bombarded the whole world, and the whole world was not calm. Russia would actually make such a move, which was simply unexpected! Some politicians believe that Russia's recognition of the independence of the two eastern regions of Ukraine violates international law, the Minsk Agreement, and Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and they severely condemned this.
Putin believed that this was a helpless move and held many "press conferences" to explain his country's views. In the eyes of the outside world, every move by Russia and Ukraine exaggerates a dangerous atmosphere that a war is imminent.
So let’s take a look at the probability of a war between Russia and Ukraine? starts with the reasons. The main reason is that Russia's current economy is beginning to decline, but Ukraine wants to jump up and develop well, but the geographical location of the two countries is too close. If one party wants to develop, the other will not let go, or one party cannot lead the other. One side is becoming developed, so the other side, Ukraine, wants to seek more help from others to boost its already declining economy. For example, joining and EU is actually a conflict of interests.
The tug of war between the two has formed a long-term conflict. Let’s first briefly understand the situation between the two countries. The relationship between the two countries is very special, because Ukraine has strong national feelings for Russia. The Russian nation first flourished in the wilderness of Ukraine. The blood relationship between the two nations is too close. It can be said that Ukraine is not only the strategic link between Russia and Western Europe, but also the existence of the same source and the root of Russia. .
This probably dates back to the Northern Song Dynasty. The first feudal state "Kiev-Rus" established by the ancient Russians was based in Kiev (Kyiv), across the Dnieper River. Grand Duke Vladimir (Vladimir) also had his citizens baptized in the Dnieper River (Dniper), and from then on the Russians converted to Orthodox Christianity.
This famous river, the Dnieper River, is the mother river of today's Ukraine. Since then, Kiev has been the political center of the Russians, and many important decisions came from here. Whether geographically or psychologically, this land will be remembered by Russians and Ukrainians.
Later, due to the invasion of the Mongols in the late Southern Song Dynasty, Kievan Rus split into multiple grand principalities. The ancient Russians slowly differentiated into three modern ethnic groups: Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. During this period, it experienced wars and national changes. Tsarist Russia completed the multi-ethnic state spanning Eurasia . At this point, Tsarist Russia’s territory expanded rapidly and its national power increased day by day until it annexed today’s eastern Ukraine in the late Ming Dynasty . From then on Ukraine has always been part of Russia, except for the Carpathian region.
During that time, Ukraine was ostensibly subordinate to Tsarist Russia. In fact, internal demonstrations continued, and more patriots came forward and sought to break away from Tsarist Russia.
It was not until 1991 that this wish was finally realized, but of course the price paid was heavy. No matter what, for Russia, Ukraine will always be a part of it. In Putin's foreign policy for so many years, he has always wanted to bring Ukraine back into the arms of Russia. Think of the countless Russian writers, artists, and military strategists who have a deep attachment to Ukraine.
I remember that the two consecutive leaders of the Soviet Union Khrushchev were Ukrainians, Brezhnev grew up in Ukraine, Gogol was Ukrainian, and the painting master Repin was Ukrainian. One of the founders of MIG, Grevich , is a Ukrainian. Chekhov lived in Crimea for many years when he was young. Putin's view is not unfounded. But now it is unrealistic to expand Russia's territory to Ukraine. Ukraine finally came out, how can it be possible to go back.
Therefore, Putin’s focus is on the integration of economy and defense. Putin came up with an idea to engage in national integration based on the CIS framework. That’s what it means above.
I don’t want your land. But it takes your "heart". Of course, Ukraine does not agree with this policy. From Ukraine's perspective, Russia's plan cannot help itself. Instead, it is a knife for Russia to restore its status as it was during the Soviet Union. Ukraine wants to avoid this knife. Looking for more assistance, they naturally turned their attention to places like the United States and Europe.
For this reason, there has been a situation of disputes between major forces in Ukraine. It can be said that the crisis caused by Ukraine itself is very serious. The first is the economy. After 1991, Ukraine dragged itself and started a solo project with its tired body. However, this project was not easy to implement. There were too many "blood suckers" inside, and the economy was in the hands of some oligarchs . This even endangers politics, exactly as it was in Russia at the time.
Therefore, Ukraine’s economy has been in a state of limbo and is unevenly distributed. The eastern part of Ukraine is rich in coal mines and water conservancy resources and has developed industry, while the western part is dominated by agriculture and small handicraft industries, and its economic development lags behind that of the eastern part. It is precisely because of this gap , making people in eastern Ukraine more insistent that closeness with Russia is beneficial to economic development, while people in the west believe that their agricultural products can only be sold to Western Europe at a good price, so disputes continue.
The political aspect is not much better. There are ethnic barriers between the east and west of Ukraine. The east of Ukraine was part of Russia during the time of Peter the Great , so Russian-speaking residents were the main ones, while the west has long been under the jurisdiction of Poland and the Austro-Hungarian Empire Under the rule of the Soviet Union, it was only transferred to the Soviet Union during the Stalin period. There are two voices in one country, which will inevitably lead to discord.
In fact, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, the entire environment was in a state of decline. The contradiction between Russia and Ukraine became increasingly deepened. It was not only an internal problem between the two countries, but also included many external difficulties.
For example, take the game between the EU, the United States and Russia. The EU and the United States are bent on winning over Ukraine, because Ukraine’s position is very important. This strategic land can bring countless benefits. The most important thing is that as long as Ukraine and Russia are at loggerheads, That's because the heartland of Russia is completely exposed to Europe and the United States. The deterrent effect of Moscow's missiles on the West is greatly reduced. This is the most critical point. Russia needs Ukraine to maintain the stability of its own country, and the consequences of losing Ukraine will be disastrous. Russia does not want to see the dispute between the two countries and the profit of the fishermen, but Ukraine is only focused on economic development and does not care about the life and death of Russia. Therefore, Putin has declared that he does not want to see Ukraine join the EU, let alone see the two countries start a war.
But saying that Russia does not want to fight does not mean that it will not. After all, it is a fighting nation.
Ukraine is jumping hard on the edge of war, which is very intriguing. From here, the possibility of war is divided into 50 and 50. Secondly, judging from the current situation, in fact, the conflict has already occurred, but it only occurred within Ukraine under the provocation of Russia.
From a military perspective, 2014 is a key year. Historically, on January 19, 2014, anti-government riots occurred in Kiev, kicking off a scene of open conflict.
said before that Kyiv has been a political center since ancient times, and choosing here also represents a certain deterrent. At that time, many southeastern Ukrainian states and regions, that is, some pro-Russian people, were incited by the Russian government to erupt in demonstrations and protests against Ukraine. The pro-American forces overthrew the Yanukovych regime in a coup, while the pro-American forces and extreme right-wing elements in Ukraine suppressed the demonstrators, especially in the southwest Odessa area, causing bloody incidents, resulting in the death of more than 50 Russian demonstrators. It can be said that this is a trigger.
On January 29, 2014, the General Prosecutor's Office of Ukraine announced that the amnesty law passed by the parliament will take effect on March 17, 2014. This means that the government has made certain compromises and will no longer pursue criminal liability for the troublemakers, but the riots have not stopped. .
From March 2014 to February 2015, before the Minsk Agreement was signed, the Ukrainian armed forces and the local armed forces of Eastern Ukraine continued to fight in Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast in southeastern Ukraine. The Ukrainian army fought in the early stages. The Chinese suffered huge losses and retreated one after another. The local armed forces in Eastern Ukraine controlled most of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
On June 6, 2015, after a brief period of calm, fierce conflicts broke out again in eastern Ukraine, and the Minsk ceasefire agreement was destroyed. This internal conflict is actually a microcosm of the contradiction between Russia and Ukraine. Although there was no exchange of fire between the two countries, they were still at war with each other and had long-standing grievances.
In the 1930s, Soviet leader Stalin deliberately starved all Ukrainians because Ukraine protested against his policies, resulting in the death of millions of Ukrainians. This period of history must become a point of condemnation for Ukraine.
In the 1940s, at the end of World War II , Stalin seized some land in Poland and mass deported all Poles from the lands he claimed as the Soviet Union.
In the 1990s, Ukraine was independent but divided between east and west. The two sides continued to have conflicts. Russian leader Putin saw a weakness. The Ukrainian regime was in turmoil, and Ukraine was not even truly owned by the Ukrainians. As a result, the Ukrainians wanted to seize their own country. interests, and launched more means. They have always been inclined to the United States and Western Europe to continuously obstruct Russia's development. There are too many cases.
For example, Ukraine has repeatedly blocked the construction of the Nord Stream-2 natural gas pipeline between Russia and Germany, and Ukraine does not hesitate to sell its own resources at low prices to NATO countries in order to obtain assistance and interference. With an unreasonable spirit, he wants to defeat Russia and place himself among Western Europe, or the opposite of Russia. Russia's feelings towards Ukraine have been destroyed step by step by Ukraine's repeated leaps.
Finally, we said that triggering a war requires some fuse. At present, we advocate world peace, and the economy, politics, and culture between countries have all become part of globalization.
If war is inevitable, it will affect not only some countries; if the two countries can coexist peacefully, I think both countries will also feel relieved in their hearts. Russia wants to protect itself, but it has never thought about destroying Ukraine. Even in the Russian government, there are many Ukrainian seats. Many people say that Russia is too indulgent to Ukraine, and that the Ukrainian regime is not worthy of its role.
From a step-by-step analysis, Russia has Russian feelings, and Ukraine also has its own urgent interests and needs. In addition, what could have been a family matter between the two countries is mixed with the instigation of discord by a third or fourth party. We don’t know what the outcome will be in the end.
But what we can hear is what Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said: "Russia has no intention of having any conflict with Ukraine, especially a military conflict." But what Ukraine spreads is that we just don't want to. To be Russia's little follower, we must severely sanction Russia and join forces with outsiders. If there is a fight, someone will help us.
So if there is a fight, will anyone really help Ukraine? We don’t know, but here we all hope for world peace, and war is never the best choice.
We will continue to pay attention to whether the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to a war. What do you think of this? We look forward to your attention and messages. See you in the next issue.
