Xiong Xing, Researcher, Center for Taiwan and East Asia Studies, Central China Normal University
Taiwan’s 2020 election is approaching, although the Tsai administration has been criticized on a series of issues. However, judging from the polls and support rates, it does not seem to have had a major impact on the election of Tsai Ing-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party. Moreover, a series of incidents in Hong Kong since June this year have actually caused Tsai Ing-wen to accidentally "pick up a gun." Polls, which were originally sluggish, are gradually improving.
Even in the latest poll released by the blue-leaning "United Daily News", Tsai Ing-wen is still more than ten percentage points higher than Han Guoyu , making her more confident in the role of "hot Taiwanese girl" and focusing on On elections rather than on the livelihoods that are closely related to the majority of the people on the island. Because votes are more important!
Someone once said that the so-called democratic elections in Western-style democracy require both the money of the rich and the votes of the poor. Because the rich are often in the minority, and the electoral system enables people to gain power through peaceful means and achieve political party rotation and even regime change. Under such circumstances, maximizing voter support and obtaining votes has become the most important goal of politicians.
Taiwan’s “nine-in-one elections” at the end of 2018 have clearly expressed Taiwan’s mainstream public opinion, which is to fight for the economy, promote people’s livelihood, and “live a good life.” However, judging from the subsequent performance of the DPP administration, although the Tsai Ing-wen administration has always claimed to review its previous work, in actual work its main goal is still to win the 2020 election. The "cross-strait card" and "anti-Chinese card" continue to be tools to boost electoral sentiment.
However, the people's livelihood and economic problems faced by Taiwan do exist objectively. Since the beginning of this year, no matter how high-profile the ruling authorities are in publicity, the risk of Taiwan's economic downturn has not been eliminated. People in Taiwan's economic circles are generally doubtful about whether the economic growth rate can be maintained at 2% this year. Export data has also declined for several consecutive months, and the employment and salary situation, which are closely related to people's livelihood, are not optimistic either.
Although the DPP government has proposed many measures to boost the economy, they have given the public the impression that they pay lip service but do not deliver. After the economic and trade friction between China and the United States, the Tsai administration announced that the return of investment from Taiwanese businesses to Taiwan is expected to exceed NT$500 billion. However, there is a lot of watershedding in it. In fact, due to the cost of land acquisition, it cannot boost the real economy, and business operators There are also problems such as lack of workers and even lack of electricity.
Especially since August, with the cancellation of free travel for mainland tourists to Taiwan, Taiwan's tourism industry has been hit by a "king-level cold wave." The annual "National Day" holiday is originally the peak period for mainland people to travel. However, during this year's "National Day Golden Week", the number of mainland tourists visiting Taiwan hit a record low in 11 years, only one-third of the number in the same period in the past. The number of mainland tourists has dropped sharply. In addition to factors such as the 70th anniversary celebrations, cancellation of independent tours, and Taiwan's declining attractiveness to mainland tourists, the impact of the continued freezing of cross-strait relations may also be a more important factor.
At present, many travel agencies on the island have begun to take unpaid leave. 85% of the existing more than 40,000 Chinese-speaking tour guides are out of business. The related tourism and tourism industry is likely to go bankrupt. In order to make up for the losses in the tourism industry, the Tsai government not only opened up visa exemption to many Southeast Asian countries under the "New Southbound Policy", but also adopted a preferential plan to provide subsidies for group tourists to attract tourists.
However, although the number of tourists from Southeast Asian countries coming to Taiwan has increased, because their own consumption power is not very strong, there has been a strange phenomenon of "increasing number of tourists and decreasing consumption". And due to other factors such as language, tourists to Taiwan are mainly concentrated in a few urban areas in Taiwan, and the number of tourists going to other regions such as central, southern and eastern areas is smaller, resulting in business opportunities being unable to expand to more places.
To this end, the ruling authorities have also taken some short-term measures to try to boost the economy, but this has also raised suspicions about whether it is for election considerations.Lin Jialong, who failed to run for re-election as mayor of Taichung last year, was promoted to head of the transportation department after the election. He previously asked the "Tourism Bureau" under the transportation department to come up with the "International Tourism Warm Winter Plan", and is expected to propose a research scholarship and talent training plan in the near future. , according to the autumn and winter international travel subsidy plan, we will assist relevant public associations, tutor and subsidize Chinese-speaking tour guides to apply for foreign language tour guides and other measures, hoping to relieve the tourism industry.
At the same time, other relevant departments in Taiwan also provide some subsidies to independent travelers coming to Taiwan. It is said that tourists can receive a "night market consumption voucher" of NT$200 per room with proof of accommodation, hoping to stimulate the tourism industry. However, this kind of money-splitting emergency relief method may only have a short-term boost to the tourism industry at best.
Not to mention how much consumption this NT$200 "night market consumption coupon" can bring, or whether it can only "exclusively benefit" a few practitioners, and the implementation period of this plan is from September 16 to December 31. The deadline is exactly ten days before the 2020 election. Therefore, he was criticized by the opposition parties as demolishing the east wall to pay for the west wall, seeking medical treatment in a hurry, and was even questioned as an act of "policy buying votes" for the election. Some media and people on the island believe that this is once again the authorities using Taiwanese people’s tax dollars to rescue losses caused by the Tsai administration’s erroneous cross-strait policies.
Therefore, it is important for the Taiwanese people to recognize the true nature of the Tsai Ing-wen authorities’ manipulation of unification and independence consciousness and the “China-phobia”, “China-hatred” and “anti-China” cards for electoral politics as soon as possible. For the ruling Democratic Progressive Party government, the right way to gain public support is to comply with public opinion, improve people's livelihood, and integrate into the historical trend of one family on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. (Editor: Tang Hua)
