Perhaps, there is a possibility that a global economic crisis has erupted, but the superpowers with economic leadership are not willing to admit it. Since July, more and more "2008" has appeared in media reports. When the various performances of the economic crisis in 2008 are us

Perhaps, is there a possibility that a global economic crisis has broken out, but the superpower with economic leadership is not willing to admit it yet.

This may be what the world should reflect on most after the first half of 2022.

Since July, more and more "2008" has appeared in media reports. When the various performances of the economic crisis in 2008 are used as comparison objects today, we will find that there are more and more differences between the two. There are many similarities, and some words such as "more than 2008" and "close to 2008" tell us that we are already standing on the edge of a cliff.

Even the International Monetary Fund IMF, which has been working hard to convey positive information to the outside world, has begun to become negative. The IMF, which previously gave a 3.6% valuation in this year's expected global economic growth, also announced that it has once again renegotiated its downward revision of its expected growth valuation. This is a rare occurrence for the IMF to lower its global economic growth valuation three times in a row. It also shows This year’s economic situation is severe.

According to Reuters reported on July 6, IMF President Kristalina Georgieva said: Since April this year, the global economic outlook has been "significantly bleak", and given the rising risks, She cannot rule out the possibility of a global recession in 2023.

This is a very euphemistic political rhetoric, because when half of 2022 has passed, everyone already knows that even if the economic data of most countries in the world are growing positively this year, the year-on-year growth data will definitely not be able to outpace inflation. If the global economic growth rate in the coming year As Georgieva said, it will return to negative numbers, then 2023 will be more dangerous, and the era of global recession will really come.

However, at least for developed countries this year, life is still more difficult, and there is still room for maneuver. Appropriate monetary policies can pass on the crisis, maintain the operation of some national functions, and even achieve partial recovery of the economy.

For those emerging market countries that are already reeling from the economic downturn, it is inevitable that they will be used as a floodgate by developed countries in this wave of global inflation crisis. Under the already sluggish economic situation, if they are harvested by the West again, the fate of these small countries is almost destined to go bankrupt.

The number of emerging market countries with unhealthy levels of sovereign debt has more than doubled in the past six months. Currently, the sovereign debt status of 19 emerging market countries is at a bad level. Although there is no official information indicating that these countries have debt default risks, according to the sovereign debt yields that can be queried on the Internet, default risks are already real.

Emerging market countries currently hold a total of approximately 1.4 trillion US dollars in foreign debt , of which the default risk involved in 19 countries is close to 250 billion US dollars. Considering that the countries that are already at risk are generally relatively small countries with relatively poor economic conditions, a default on this US$250 billion debt will be a disaster for them.

What will happen to a country after a debt default? We can intuitively see it from countries that have already defaulted. At present, small countries such as Sri Lanka and Lebanon have experienced substantial debt defaults. Sri Lanka was the first country to stop paying foreign debt this year. It declared a debt default as early as May and officially declared national bankruptcy at the beginning of this month.

Before the bankruptcy, Sri Lanka had already experienced months of material shortages and civil strife. Since April, demonstrations caused by high inflation and lack of supplies have continued to occur. In the next two months, the demonstrations gradually evolved into civil unrest. Gas stations became important places that required military guarding, and conflicts between the people and the military continued to brew. It turned into a bloody incident, but the government could only watch as the U.S. dollar foreign exchange used to import daily necessities gradually dried up.

html In early July, after Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy, the national gasoline reserves were only enough for one day, and the next batch of shipments would not arrive until after the 22nd.

described it this way in an American media report: “The cheering queue coiled around the entire suburb like a giant metal python, growing longer day by day.Three-wheel taxi drivers in Sri Lanka have to wait in line for 48 hours with pillows, a change of clothes and water before they can hit the road again. "

Accompanying the depletion of gasoline reserves is the overall depletion of daily necessities and the uncontrolled rise in prices. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka has raised interest rates by more than 800 basis points this year, but it still cannot collect any funds and cannot curb the rapid rise in prices. .

2 About 30% of the 22 million Sri Lankan families do not have enough meals and are facing the threat of hunger; 70% of families have reduced their three meals a day to two meals due to the severe national situation. For half a month, power outages have become the norm in the city. Medicines, food, drinking water, and daily necessities are all lacking in Sri Lanka.

Almost all the reports sent by reporters from Sri Lanka described staying in front of gas stations in the country. The spectacle of queues and the surge in the number of beggars on the streets. According to a report issued by Global Times, the beggars seen by the reporter on the streets of Sri Lanka were not only old people who were unable to work, but also women holding babies.

And the IMF was there. The only role played in the whole incident was that negotiations for a 3 billion aid loan with the Sri Lankan government began in May, but to this day, the loan has still not been negotiated.

It is difficult to imagine that life in Sri Lanka was relatively stable a few years ago. Although Sri Lanka is not rich, it has been in a period of relatively stable economic growth since the end of the civil war. The annual per capita GDP is between 3,500 and 4,000 US dollars, which is lower than the middle level and compared with less developed countries that are really struggling to survive. It is said that it is enough to maintain a normal life.

What happened to Sri Lanka is very simple. After the war between Russia and Ukraine, the energy crisis was magnified and the inflation rate soared. Some small countries that borrowed money to develop their economies did not have enough ability to control the explosion of inflation. When the outside world received actual help and was already on the verge of collapse, the United States violently raised interest rates and shrunk its balance sheet , causing the dollar exchange rate to skyrocket. These small countries became unable to pay debt interest in a short period of time and entered a debt crisis

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates . The pace will not stop. With the strong non-farm employment data in the United States rebounding, the Fed that has seen results will not stop now. This is doomed that Sri Lanka's bankruptcy will not be the end of Sri Lanka's fate as a country. The beginning of a crisis that spreads across emerging market countries.

When the Federal Reserve calmly announced that raising interest rates may cause a market recession, but must be implemented; when the G7 leaders decided to continue supporting Ukraine and delay the progress of the war, An economic crisis in emerging market countries has actually begun.

Perhaps in this economic crisis, the concept of "emerging country markets" relative to Western developed countries and backward underdeveloped countries has gradually become a false proposition. The West is convinced that this is the case. A crisis can be constrained within the scope of this proposition, but the reality is unpredictable. If the IMF continues to play this conciliatory role, the economic crisis in emerging market countries may not turn into a global economic crisis.

There are many fragile market countries with high foreign debt and low foreign reserves that are in a similar situation to Sri Lanka. According to comprehensive data from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank and other institutions, the economic conditions of at least 9 other countries Worryingly, they may even face the same fate as Sri Lanka. The nine countries are Afghanistan, Argentina, Egypt, Laos, Lebanon, Myanmar, Pakistan, Turkey and Zimbabwe.

When US dollar capital was withdrawn, the situation of these countries became extremely difficult. In the last similar incident, the United States successfully limited the scope to Latin America and created the world-famous Latin American sovereign debt crisis. History has come back here in a circle today. The depth of the flood relief pond is no longer as good as it was back then. The situation of European and American countries is no longer as good as it was back then. However, the script of that year was once again placed in front of us. Sri Lanka's bankruptcy was not the end, but a financial disaster. Start.

Putting out the fire and fishing for the best, we finally saw the old script. Even if developed countries get through it this time, what about next time? Judging from the actual situation in Latin American countries, the countries that were used as flood discharge basins between the two cycles cannot effectively recover. If they continue to fish from the lake like this, the fishermen will eventually starve to death.