2021 has passed, and what is shocking is that the number of births in Taiwan is only 154,000. Compared with 2016, when Tsai Ing-wen came to power, the number of births has evaporated by 54,000, a 26% drop. What is the reason?
Table 1 Number of births in Taiwan over the years Data source: Monthly statistical report of the Taiwanese government’s internal affairs department
After Tsai Ing-wen took office, she said every year that she would respond to the declining birthrate, but she ended up reducing the number of newborns every year (Table 1). In 2017, the "Office of Reducing Birthrates" was established in reality, but stopped after just one meeting; Tsai Ing-wen said that if Lin Jingyi was elected, the birth rate in the Second District will be greatly improved. If Lin Jingyi is so powerful, she should be made the leader of Taiwan, and it will only benefit the Second District. What a pity.
The Democratic Progressive Party will argue that "fewer birthrates are a trend." The real trend is that the number of births in 2008, when Ma Ying-jeou took over, increased from 199,000 to 208,000 in 2016, when he handed over. Ma Ying-jeou increased the number of births by 5%, but Tsai Ing-wen reduced it by 26%.
There are many factors that affect the birth rate, but economy is definitely the key. Ma Ying-jeou is accused of not being good at anything, even breathing is guilty, but the number of births can still increase during his term; Tsai Ing-wen says that she is "in power" very well, so why don't workers dare to have children?
This article first analyzes the declining birthrate from one aspect: the real wage of labor. Raising children costs money and takes time. Nowadays, most young couples "have at most two children if they have money, but they dare not have one if they don't have money." However, the Tsai administration's policies are conducive to the manufacturing industry for export, and are not conducive to the past. The service industry is dominated by domestic demand, which affects the fertility willingness of workers in the service industry.
From May 2016 to November 2021, during Tsai Ing-wen’s term, Taiwan’s total real wages in the manufacturing industry increased by 10.11%, while the real total wages in the service industry had a negative growth of -1.1%. This phenomenon will be more serious during the epidemic in 2021. As can be seen from Table 2, after the epidemic broke out in April 2021, there was a significant gap in the real total salary growth rate of the manufacturing and service industries. The service industry was house leakage. It happens that it rains all night .
Table 2 Real total salary growth rate (compared with last year) Data source: Salary situation platform query system
Compared with the rising stock prices of some industries, the service industry and its employees have been more deeply affected by the level 3 alert, which makes us unable to Don’t think about it, if the trade in services had passed the customs back then, would it still be the same?
It is an indisputable fact that Taiwan’s exports depend on the mainland. The manufacturing industry can make money by exporting to the mainland, but can the service industry do the same? The DPP said, no. However, the so-called ECFA service trade agreement is to relax mainland capital investment in Taiwan, and investment must poach workers; Taiwanese workers are robbed, and wages will naturally increase, while Taiwan's service industry bosses must face competition from mainland capital.
In short, the Trade in Services Agreement is beneficial to Taiwanese workers in the service industry, but detrimental to Taiwanese capital in the service industry. Take the "Mainland-owned one-stop tourism" that was often used as an example. Even if the Mainland-owned one-stop service only allows mainland bosses to earn the money originally earned by Taiwanese bosses, the mainland bosses still have to hire Taiwanese employees to do the work. More employers Competition for Taiwanese labor is beneficial to the labor force.
Why does the Democratic Progressive Party want to protect the profits of Taiwanese employers and prevent Taiwanese workers from earning more wages? This is really a contradiction of democratic politics. As for mainland investment in Taiwan being a "united front", isn't it also a united front for the DPP to make Taiwan's exports dependent on the mainland?
The "Service Trade Agreement" is on the rocks, hurting Taiwan's service industry workers, and the reduction in real wages of service industry workers has lowered Taiwan's fertility rate. This is part of the reason why the Tsai administration has "worsened the low birthrate" in the past five years. The students who participated in the "Sunflower Movement" must have had parents who were engaged in the service industry. Today, you might as well ask yourself, has the situation of their parents gotten better?
