Let’s take a look at the recent performance of some cyclical stocks:
Chinalco announced that it is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 967 million yuan in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of about 30 times!
Chongqing Iron and Steel announced that the net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company in the first quarter is expected to increase by approximately 1.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 259 times!
Jiangxi Copper announced that it is expected to achieve a net profit of 831 million yuan to 879 million yuan, with net profit increasing 419.00% to 449.00% year-on-year!
Many people have thought that when resource prices rise, the performance of listed companies will inevitably increase, but it surprised many people to increase so much all at once, so China Aluminum Corporation closed up 6% today. And Chongqing Iron and Steel , which has a greater growth, comes directly with a one-word hollow board!
In addition to the past quarter, the impact of the Chilean epidemic has not affected the export of minerals, but at least the psychological pressure is obvious. At the same time, as the overall global epidemic is gradually controlled, the demand for resources has also increased. It is obviously increasing, and even the United States is saying that it may produce unexpected economic demand. This is a good support for the commodity .
Another support is that under the loose monetary policy, the driving force for commodity price increases is also very strong. Of course, investors should also pay attention to this. The recent rise in U.S. bond yields is actually an expectation of the withdrawal of the loose policy. After all, it has been too loose. It is inflation. This balance point is difficult to control, but at the current point in time, money is still relatively abundant.
As far as the A-shares themselves are concerned, the non-ferrous metals and steel sectors are generally still at a low level.
I have been talking about the concept of procyclicality before, but non-ferrous metals did not rise for a few days and then fell with the market. The main reason is that the group white horse stocks still fall from time to time, which still has a great impact on market sentiment, but Most of the non-ferrous metal sector has not yet risen significantly, so I think their valuations do not fully reflect the current demand.
Regarding the steel sector, which has been very hot recently, I would like to remind you when you get the big deal. Although the performance of Chongqing Steel has exceeded expectations and has strong support for short-term steel stocks, the growth of the steel sector itself is actually like that. At present, it is benefiting from the overall low price. Retail investors themselves also like low-priced stocks. Coupled with the concept of carbon neutrality, steel has become a hot commodity now. But now it is "hot cakes", but from a short-term perspective, in terms of long-term investment, there are still more stories to tell in non-ferrous metals than in steel.
Finally, for resource stocks, investors’ position control is also very important. Just like what we call “cyclical stocks”, you need to speculate according to the thinking of cyclical stocks. When mineral prices have just risen, there are actually many When there is controversy, it’s okay to be bolder at this time; but when resource prices continue to rise and you see good news everywhere, in reality it is often the expansion of various resources, which in turn will cause prices to fall, that is, resources When prices are high, selling is a reality.
For now, good resources still have investment value.
——The above, financial king Dana, more investment thoughts and logical analysis, welcome to follow!
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