Former Taipei Mayor Hao Longbin said on a Taiwanese program on June 28 that this election is "two blues versus one green" and whoever gets 43% of the votes will be elected.

Hao Longbin warned Jiang Wanan: If Huang Shanshan gets 20% of the votes, the DPP will win.

The Taipei mayoral election at the end of 2022 currently presents a "three-legged" situation: the Chinese Kuomintang has decided to send "legislator" Jiang Wanan to fight, and the Democratic Progressive Party is rumored to nominate Chen Shizhong, the head of Taiwan's health and welfare department, to run in July, while the Taipei City Deputy Mayor President Huang Shanshan is also almost certain to run. Former Taipei Mayor Hao Longbin said on a Taiwanese program on June 28 that this election is "two blues versus one green" and whoever gets 43% of the votes will be elected.

From left to right they are: Huang Shanshan, Jiang Wanan, Chen Shizhong

Number one in the polls

Is Jiang Wanan the mayor of Taipei stable?

Taiwan TVBS Public Opinion Poll Center released the latest poll of Taipei mayors in 2022 on June 27. Jiang Wanan ranked first with 39% support, Huang Shanshan at 24%, and Chen Shizhong at 18%.

Although the gap between Jiang Wanan and Jiang Wanan was widened in the polls, KMT "legislator" Li Dewei still said that in 2014 Wanwen and in 2018 Ding Shouzhong were both leading in the polls at the beginning. Both of them were very optimistic, but they were gradually replaced by The lesson learned was bloody.

Li Dewei pointed out that Chen Shizhong has now fallen from the altar of epidemic prevention. The pressure on Jiang Wanan will not be so great, but for the DPP, including the die-hard votes of the green camp and the astonishing rise of Tsai Ing-wen’s party, government, military, and green media Techniques: We saw these situations in 2014 and 2018, so no invoices were issued and no one dared to say the results. Jiang Wanan just worked hard.

Dai Xiqin:

With 15% of the votes, Chiang is "very dangerous"

Taipei City Councilor of the Kuomintang and deputy chairman of the Cultural Affairs Bureau, Dai Xiqin said on June 29 that if we vote now, Chiang Wanan will narrowly win, but "Huang only needs 10% When the support reaches 15%, Chiang is very dangerous."

Dai Xiqin said in an interview with China Review News that because Huang Shanshan's votes have more supporters from the pan-blue camp, otherwise the green camp would not deliberately promote Huang in terms of strategy. Obviously, the green camp will also. It is judged that Huang attracts the votes of the blue camp. The higher the votes of Huang, the greater the chance of the green camp winning. Dai Xiqin further pointed out that Jiang Wanan and Huang Shanshan have similar characteristics and styles, and both have images that are not annoying, so the two can stay within a certain gap.

However, Dai Xiqin also believes that although Huang's polls seem to threaten Chiang, the main reason is that the DPP has not yet proposed a formal candidate, and the public just likes the accumulated impressions of these politicians on the table in the past. Current polls It shouldn't be said that it's support. It's more of a favorability factor in many aspects. I'm afraid the support level will be more accurate after the final list is released.

Hao Longbin:

Whoever can get 43% of the votes will be elected

Hao Longbin said in an online program on June 28 that although Huang Shanshan is a member of the People's First Party, most "deep blue" people still think that she is a blue army, so this This election is "two blues versus one green". Whoever gets 43% of the votes will be elected. For Jiang Wanan, Huang Shanshan's votes are the variable. If Huang Shanshan gets 20% of the votes, then the election is probably over. , the result will be that the DPP will be elected.

Hao Longbin pointed out that this "three-legged confrontation" situation is difficult to "abandon" and operate because Jiang Wanan, Chen Shizhong, and Huang Shanshan are all very strong. Behind Chen Shizhong are Tsai Ing-wen and Su Zhenchang, and behind Huang Shanshan is Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe , Jiang Wanan is relatively difficult to operate.

Hao Longbin believes that Jiang Wanan's situation is very difficult. How to ensure that the Deep Blue votes are not taken away by Huang Shanshan will become the key to the election. Jiang Wanan must hold on to 35% of the votes , including military, public, religious, and Blue Army supporters over the age of 40 or 50. Under this premise, he will actively seek young votes.

column editor: Gu Wanquan, text editor: Song Hui, title picture source: Tuchong Creative, picture editor: Yong Kai,

source: author: taihai.com