The Democratic Progressive Party’s 2024 situation is complicated and confusing. Recently, a new situation has arisen due to Chen Jianren’s continuous interviews with green media and the release that “there is no plan for the 2024 ‘general election’”. Taoyuan Mayor Zheng Wencan, who was originally thought to be almost eliminated, seems to be resurrected. Lin Jialong, the leader of the "Legislative Assembly", is gearing up. It is said that the 75-year-old "Executive President" Su Zhenchang is also eager to try. It remains to be seen whether the competition for nomination will be Romance of the Three Kingdoms or Battle of Fangcheng.
Hong Kong’s China Review Network published a monograph today pointing out that the changes in the DPP’s 2024 position battle stem from Chen Jianren’s actions in the past few days. He joined the Democratic Progressive Party at the end of last year on the recommendation of Tsai Ing-wen, and was regarded as Tsai's "karma", arranging for Chen Yao and Lai Qingde to compete for the 2024 nomination. The background is that Zheng Wencan, the successor echelon, was seriously injured by the Taoyuan epidemic last year. Originally, Lai and Zheng were evenly matched, but Lai Qingde was far ahead and unrivaled. At this time, Chen Jianren suddenly joined the party, and his exposure was greatly increased under Tsai's arrangement. In a recent interview, Chen Jianren revealed that Lai Qingde had explicitly asked him if he wanted to run for 2024, which clearly shows Lai Qingde's anxiety. Due to Chen Jianren, the relationship between Tsai Ing-wen and Lai Qingde suddenly became tense. The director of the security office of Lai's residence was dismissed from his post and investigated for falsely reporting a physical fitness test, which aroused speculation.
It is also obvious that because of Chen Jianren, Lai Qingde began to use the county and mayor elections at the end of the year to strengthen his power, including expanding his efforts to hang "Trust Taiwan" advertising billboards with candidates such as Zi Dibing. Other factions criticized him behind the scenes as "a puppy urinating on his territory," which shows that relations within the party have reached a certain level of tension.
Chen Jianren, a scientist by training, has rarely taken political actions in the past. Recently, it was revealed that Lai Qingde asked him if joining the party meant he would be elected to a high position. Being interviewed and elected by green media is very unusual, and the possibility of doing so without high-level approval is extremely low. In an exclusive interview with Green Media, he voluntarily mentioned that "there is no plan for 2024 at all." This is obviously Tsai Ing-wen's move to appease Lai Qingde and avoid premature competition in 2024. Tsai’s purpose in doing this is not necessarily to show favor to Lai, but to prevent the factional fighting within the party from affecting the county and mayor elections at the end of the year. Tsai Ing-wen’s term has come to an end. This time, she has full control over the nomination of county mayors. If not, she will limp early. At this time, Cai asked Lai Qingde to calm down and let everyone work together to win the election successfully.
Lai Qingde seemed relieved when Chen Jianren expressed that he had no plans to choose 2024, and immediately responded, "I am good friends with Chen Jianren and we can cooperate in the future."
This action is also linked to Zheng Wencan. The epidemic in Taiwan is slowly easing, and the "border" is expected to be unblocked this month or next month. The epidemic commander Chen Shizhong will make a "glorious turn" to elect the mayor of Taipei, let alone Zheng Wencan. Therefore, after Chen Jianren stated that he had no intention of running for 2024, Zheng Wencan slipped into the succession echelon. It was also reported that he might serve as the "executive president" after the mayor steps down at the end of the year. The next key thing is that Zheng Wencan must push Lin Zhijian, who has resigned as mayor of Hsinchu to run for mayor of Taoyuan. If Lin Zhijian is elected, Zheng will be done.
Tsai Ing-wen’s current logic is that it is in her best interest to maintain full competition for successors. Whether there are two, three or four people, as long as they have not decided on one, she will not be lame early.
One of the most prominent figures recently is Lin Jialong, the leader of the National Assembly who once served as the "Minister of Transportation" and the mayor of Taichung . Lin vigorously campaigned for the nomination of Taipei mayor, but Tsai Ing-wen had already decided that Chen Shi would be elected in Taipei City, and it was not his turn at all. Lin Jialong also said that if someone else takes the field in 2022, he will prepare for the next one, which is the 2024 "general election." Lin Jialong's move is not unexpected. His ultimate goal in seeking to be elected mayor of Taipei is also to "get a big position." Recently, he has schedules and interviews every day. He raises his voice and keeps making big moves. In fact, he is indirectly putting pressure on Tsai Ing-wen. If Tsai nominated Chen Shizhong, he would have to give Lin Jialong a seat. After taking his seat, he continued to accumulate energy to fight for 2024.
Therefore, although Lai Qingde is slightly relieved that Chen Jianren may not compete with him for the 2024 nomination, Zheng Wencan and Lin Jialong are both ruthless characters. After the year-end election, if Zheng Wencan can successfully sit in the "Pavilion" position and have huge administrative resources, he will be the best Lai Qingde's strongest opponent.However, everything is still subject to change. It depends on the election results. Tsai Ing-wen still has the card of Chen Jianren, and Chen may also take over as "Executive President" to prevent Zheng Wencan from becoming too powerful. Cai Ke took advantage of Lai Qingde, Zheng Wencan, and Lin Jialong to grab the 2024 nomination to manipulate the terrifying balance.
In addition, it has recently been reported that Su Zhenchang, 75 years old, does not want to come down yet, and even wants to take the "big position". Su has recently been quite strong on many personnel and policies, including police personnel. As the longest-serving cabinet minister in the Green Camp, he is now a bit like a stone for the DPP authorities. He is stuck in the cabinet position and no other Mesozoic can come up. If Tsai Ing-wen wants him to step down and replace the Mesozoic, , it will definitely take a lot of effort and some exchange conditions.
