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Summary: The valuation range of coal stocks has been divided into high valuation ranges
Since 2000, Shenwan Coal Mining (II) Index has experienced a significant increase in valuation in 4 periods of time, namely 2005/11/15--2007 /10/16; 2008/11/28--2009/12/04; 2013/07/08—2015/06/12; 2015/08/26—2016/10/25. Specifically:
The first phase: November 15, 2005 - October 16, 2007, lasting about 23 months. Shenwan industry index coal mining price-earnings ratio rose from 7.08 times to 64.49 times, an increase of 811%. This period is characterized by rapid economic growth, high industrial output growth, moderate rise in the CPI price index, upward fluctuations in coal prices as a whole, overall rise in the performance of listed coal companies, and an obvious Davis double-click effect in the coal stock market, and relative to the broader market There are relative gains.
The second phase: November 28, 2008 - December 4, 2009, lasting about 12 months. Shenwan industry index coal mining price-earnings ratio rose from 8.63 times to 31.26 times, an increase of 262%. The characteristics of this period are that the government provides stimulus policies, the economy gradually returns to high growth, industrial output gradually returns to high speed, the CPI price index first falls and then rises, the coal price first falls and then rises, the performance of listed coal companies first falls and then rises, and coal stocks The increase was mainly driven by rising valuations and relative gains relative to the broader market.
The third phase: July 8, 2013 - June 12, 2015, lasting about 23 months. Shenwan industry index coal mining price-earnings ratio rose from 11.49 times to 78.59 times, an increase of 584%. This period is characterized by a slow decline in economic growth, a slow decline in industrial output growth, a slow decline in the CPI price index, an overall continued decline in coal prices, a serious decline in the performance of listed coal companies, and a rise in the coal stock market, all driven by rising valuations. However, There is no relative gain relative to the broader market.
The fourth phase: August 26, 2015 - October 25, 2016, lasting about 14 months. Shenwan industry index coal mining price-earnings ratio rose from 33.76 times to 97.02 times, an increase of 187%. The characteristics of this period are that the economic growth rate first fell and then rose, the industrial output growth rate first fell and then rose, the CPI price index hovered at a low level, the coal price first fell and bottomed out and then rebounded, the performance of listed coal companies first fell and then rose, and the coal stock market The rise is driven by the valuation side and has relative gains relative to the broader market.
1. The rapid economic growth brought about the first wave of big market trends in coal stocks
The first stage: November 15, 2005 - October 16, 2007, lasting for about 23 months, Shenwan industry The index coal mining price-to-earnings ratio rose from 7.08 times to 64.49 times, an increase of 811%. The Shenwan industry index coal mining net profit (TTM) rose from 7.6 billion to 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of 34%. The Coal Mining II Index ( Shenwan industry index) Wan) rose from 977.6 points to 8556.1 points, an increase of 775%. The coal stock market showed a double-click effect on performance and valuation.
The economic characteristics of this period: is rapid growth, with high industrial output growth, rapid growth of exports, high growth of fixed asset investment in the whole society, and moderate rise in CPI price index. The overall fluctuation of coal prices is upward, the performance of listed coal companies is generally upward, and the coal stock market has shown an obvious Davis double-click effect, with relative gains compared to the broader market.
Economic growth momentum during this period: The rapid domestic economic and social growth is related to the continued rapid growth of exports on the one hand, and the continuous improvement of the domestic industrialization rate and urbanization rate (related to fixed asset investment) on the other hand.
On the one hand, starting from December 11, 2001, China officially joined the WTO, marking that China’s industrial opening up has entered a new stage, and economic growth has been equipped with a galloping engine. From 2002 to 2007, the year-on-year growth rate of domestic export value continued to be at a high level. In the three years from 2005 to 2007, the year-on-year growth rate of China's export trade value in that month averaged about 27.7%, and exports were in a hot state.
On the other hand, since 2002, the domestic industrialization and urbanization rate have continued to increase, which has promoted the continuous growth of fixed asset investment.
Ø From 2002 to 2007, the cumulative year-on-year contribution of the secondary industry to GDP averaged 51.6%, the tertiary industry accounted for 44%, and the primary industry accounted for 4.5%. The secondary industry is the locomotive that drives economic growth. At the same time, The proportion of domestic employment in the secondary industry continues to increase, from 21.4% in 2002 to 26.8% in 2007, and the industrialization rate continues to increase.
Ø Since the late 1990s, the domestic urbanization rate has shown a significant upward trend. From 1995 to 2018, the proportion of the domestic urban population increased by an average of 1.3 percentage points per year. In 2002, the proportion of the national urban population was 39.09%, and in 2007 it was 45.89%. %.
Fixed asset investment in the whole society has grown rapidly. 2html Real estate investment was in the rapid development stage from 2005 to 2007. The growth rates of real estate investment were as high as 20.9%, 22.1% and 30.2% in 2005, 2006 and 2007 respectively. The growth rates of infrastructure construction investment were 27.1%, 21.4% and 16.2% respectively. The growth rates of fixed asset investment in the manufacturing industry were 39.2%, 29.1% and 34.7% respectively. The rapid growth of fixed asset investment has brought about a sharp increase in demand for bulk commodities, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index has ushered in a bull market.
GDP and industrial added value have grown rapidly. During this period, GDP growth rate rose from 11.4% in 2005 to 12.7% in 2006, and then to 14.2% in 2007, reaching an average of 12.8%, setting a three-year record for the highest growth rate in the 21st century. The growth rates of industrial added value were 16.4%, 16.6% and 18.5% respectively in 2005/06/07, with an average of 17.2%.
Economic activities are relatively vigorous, and the money supply capacity is also showing an upward trend. 005/06/07 The average monthly growth rates of M1 in the three years were 11.5%, 14.4%, and 21% respectively, and that of M2 were 16.0%, 18.1%, and 17.6% respectively. The growth rate of M1 began to rise from December 2006 to October 2007. In contrast to the growth rate of M2, large amounts of liquid money flowed out of time deposits into the trading market, which also means that economic activities are active. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock also increased from 13.5% in 2005 to 18.1% in 2006 and 21.5% in 2007, indicating that economic activities have become increasingly active.
The CPI index and the ten-year government bond yield index first hovered at the bottom and then rose. From the price index point of view, the CPI was relatively moderate in 2005 and 2006. The CPI in 2005 and 2006 was 1.8% and 1.5% respectively. The expansion of the inflation index became more obvious in 2007, reaching 4.8% in 2007, indicating economic activity. further heated up. The trend of 10-year treasury bond yields during the same period is relatively consistent with the trend of CPI. The average yields of 10-year treasury bonds in 2005/06/07 were 3.8%, 3.0% and 4.0% respectively. They began to expand in 2007, indicating that the return on capital of the whole society Rates are improving and economic activity is improving.
From the perspective of the coal industry, the overall fluctuation of coal prices from 2005 to 2007 was upward, and the performance of listed coal companies was generally upward. The average price of Qingang 5500K thermal coal from 2005 to 2007 was 426/427/467 yuan/ton respectively, and the growth rates of coal mining II index net profit from 2005 to 2007 were 16.5%, -6.9% and 23.8% respectively.
Policy factors such as share-trading reform also play an icing on the cake for the stock market. In addition to relatively good economic performance, policy factors such as share-trading reform also played an icing on the cake in promoting the improvement of the stock market. Beginning in 2005, the share-trading reform was officially implemented, mainly through the non-tradable shareholders of listed companies paying a certain consideration to the tradable shareholders to obtain the circulation rights of the stocks, which solved the problem of income distribution faced by listed companies between major shareholders and small shareholders. Long-term conflicts of interest promote the long-term development of the stock market.
The Coal Mining II Index rose 8.1 times (total market capitalization weighted average method, the same below), achieving significant excess returns. The rapid growth of the economy combined with the share-trading reform created a bull market for stocks from 2005 to 2007. Among them, real estate, finance, steel, coal, and non-ferrous metals led the rise. The Coal Mining II Index rose 8.1 times, second only to the Non-bank finance was 15.3 times, non-ferrous metals was 14.5 times, and national defense industry was 13.4 times, significantly higher than the market average of 6.0 times. The coal industry showed obvious relative returns.
2. Government stimulus policies promoted the second wave of coal stocks
The second phase: November 28, 2008 - December 4, 2009, lasting for about 12 months, Shenwan Industry Index Coal The mining price-to-earnings ratio rose from 8.6 times to 31.3 times, an increase of 262%. Shenwan Industry Index Coal mining net profit (TTM) fell slightly from 61.4 billion to 55.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 10%. The coal mining II index (shenwan) rose from 2045 points to 7142 points, an increase of 249%. During this period, the motivation for the increase in coal mining in the shenwan industry index came from the valuation side.
Economic characteristics during this period: In the face of the global financial crisis, the country adopted a series of operations such as proactive fiscal policy and loose monetary policy. The economy returned to rapid growth after a wave of decline, and industrial output resumed high growth. Social fixed asset investment resumed rapid growth, the CPI price index first fell and then rose, coal prices fell first and then rose, and the performance of listed coal companies gradually returned to growth.
In response to economic pressure, the government has introduced a package of stimulus policies. The global financial crisis broke out in 2008. Domestic product exports faced severe challenges, and pressure on economic growth increased sharply. In the fourth quarter of 2008, domestic GDP growth fell sharply to 7.1%, a quarterly low since 2000, and global commodity prices plummeted. . In order to cope with the pressure of declining economic growth, in November 2008, the State Council executive meeting deployed and determined ten measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic growth. It resolved to implement proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, accelerate people's livelihood projects, and infrastructure projects. , ecological environment construction and post-disaster reconstruction, etc., to promote stable and rapid economic growth. This package of measures was later referred to as the "Four Trillion Plan".
Loose monetary policy environment. Under the "four trillion" stimulus plan, monetary policy was relaxed. In 2008, the central bank cut interest rates five times and the reserve requirement ratio four times during the year, lowering loan interest rates in a two-pronged approach. The short-term loan interest rates (6 months) and medium- and long-term loan interest rates released by the central bank (more than 5 years) respectively dropped from the high of 6.57% and 7.83% in August 2008 to 4.86% and 5.94% at the end of 2008. The lowered low interest rate level continued until the end of the third quarter of 2010. The average monthly growth rates of M1 and M2 in 2009 were 23.2% and 26.5% respectively, significantly higher than the 14.1% and 16.7% in 2018. The scale of financing in the whole society has expanded rapidly. In 2008, the stock of financing in the whole society increased by 20.5% year-on-year. In 2009, the year-on-year growth rate was as high as 34.8%.
The total amount of social financing has expanded rapidly, further supporting the continued expansion of fixed asset investment in real estate, infrastructure, manufacturing and other industries. In 2009, the fixed asset investment of the whole society increased by 30.4%, higher than 26.6% in 2008, of which real estate investment was 16.1%, lower than 23.4% in 2018, infrastructure investment was 42.2%, higher than 22.7% in 2018, and manufacturing investment was 26.6%. Lower than 30.7% in 2008. The rapid growth of fixed asset investment has brought about an increase in demand for bulk commodities, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index has shown a trend of first falling and then rising after the financial crisis.
Under strong government stimulus, the domestic economy has stabilized its growth rate. GDP growth continued to climb from 6.4% in the first quarter of 2009 to 11.9% in the fourth quarter of 2019, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value also rose from -2.93% in January 2009 to 18.5% in December.
The trend of CPI and 10-year Treasury bond yield is relatively consistent, falling first and then rising. Looking at the price index, after experiencing a sharp decline in 2008, CPI gradually recovered in 2009, indicating that economic activity was improving. The average CPI in the first quarter of 2009 was -0.6%, and the average in the fourth quarter was 0.67%. During the same period, the trend of 10-year treasury bond yields was relatively consistent with the trend of CPI. The average 10-year treasury bond yields in the first and fourth quarters of 2009 were 3.1% and 3.7% respectively, indicating that the return on capital of the whole society is increasing and economic activities are improving. momentum.
From the perspective of the coal industry, coal prices first fell and then rose from 2008.11 to 2009.12, and the performance of listed coal companies first fell and then rose. The average price of Qingang 5500K thermal coal in 2008Q4/2009Q1/2009Q2/2009Q3/2009Q4 was 702/574/577/575/680 yuan/ton respectively, and the growth rate of coal mining II index net profit in 2008/2009/2010 was 55.2% respectively. /-1.1%/34.8%.
The coal index rose 1.7 times, with relative gains. During the sharp rise in the 2008.11-2009.12 range, the coal mining II index rose 1.7 times, second only to automobiles 2.8 times and non-ferrous metals 1.9 times, significantly higher than the market average increase of 1.2 times, and the coal industry outperformed significantly. relative returns.
3. The water market promoted the third wave of valuation increases of coal stocks
The third stage: July 8, 2013 - June 12, 2015, lasting for about 23 months, Shenwan Industry Index Coal The mining price-to-earnings ratio rose from 11.5 times to 78.6 times, an increase of 584%. Shenwan Industry Index Coal mining net profit (TTM) fell from 65.4 billion to 30.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 53%. The Coal Mining II Index rose 113% from 2460 points to 5241 points. The rise in the stock market is entirely driven by valuations.
The economic characteristics of this period are: economic growth is slowly declining, as is industrial output, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the whole society is gradually declining, the price index is hovering at a low level, the overall price of coal continues to decline, and the performance of listed coal companies continues to decline. In order to cope with the continued economic decline, the government has implemented a relatively loose monetary policy, cut reserve requirements and interest rates multiple times, and encouraged innovation and entrepreneurship. The risk appetite of the stock market has increased significantly, capital allocation and leverage have become a common practice, and the capital market has become enthusiastic.
Economic growth momentum weakened from 2013 to 2015. After experiencing the "four trillion" stimulus after the 2008 financial crisis, the economy returned to a relatively high growth rate from 2009 to 2011. However, starting from 2012, the momentum of economic growth began to weaken, and the problem of overcapacity in the domestic economy gradually became apparent. The economic growth rate is declining and gradually transitioning to a new normal of medium to high speed.
The growth rate of fixed asset investment gradually declined from 2013 to 2015: real estate investment growth rates were 19.8%, 10.5% and 1% respectively in 2013, 2014 and 2015, and infrastructure construction investment growth rates were 23.0% and 20.3% respectively. %, 17.3%, and the growth rates of fixed asset investment in the manufacturing industry were 18.5%, 13.5%, and 8.1% respectively. The slowdown in fixed asset investment growth led to a decline in demand for commodities, and the Nanhua Industrial Products Index ushered in a long-term bear market
GDP growth The growth rate and industrial added value continued to decline. During this period, GDP growth rate continued to decline from 7.8% in 2013 to 6.9% in 2015. The three-year average was only 7.3%, which was significantly lower than the average of 9.3% in the previous three years. The growth rate of industrial added value in 2013/14/15 was 9.7%, 8.3% and 6.1% respectively, with an average of 8.0%, which was significantly lower than the average of 13.2% in the previous three years.
In response to the continued economic downturn, the government implemented a relatively loose monetary policy. The central bank increased market liquidity through multiple RRR cuts and interest rate cuts from 2014 to 2015. From 2013 to 2015, the interest rate for 6-month short-term loans was reduced from 5.6% to 4.35%, and the interest rate for medium- and long-term loans of more than 5 years was reduced. The interest rate was lowered from 6.55% to 4.90%.
The economic growth rate is declining, and the growth rate of money supply and demand is also declining. As economic growth slows down, the growth rates of money supply and demand also decline. The average monthly growth rates of M1 in the three years of 2013/14/15 were 10.4%, 5.0%, and 8.7% respectively, and M2 were 14.9%, 13.0%, and 12.3 respectively. %. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock also dropped from 17.5% in 2013 to 14.3% in 2014 and 13.0% in 2015.
The CPI index rose first and then fell, and generally fluctuated at a low level. From the price index point of view, the CPI in 2013, 2014, and 2015 was relatively moderate. The CPI in the three years was 2.62%, 1.99%, and 1.44% respectively. The index generally fluctuated at a low position, indicating that economic activities tended to be sluggish. .
During the same period, the trend of 10-year Treasury bond yields was relatively consistent with the trend of CPI. showed an upward trend from the second half of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, and then mainly fell. The average three-year 10-year government bond yields in 2013/1415 were 3.81%, 4.1% and 3.3% respectively, indicating that the return on capital of the whole society is declining and economic activity is sluggish.
From the perspective of the coal industry, coal prices fluctuated downward as a whole from 2013 to 2015, and the performance of listed coal companies generally declined. The average price of Qingang 5500K thermal coal from 2013 to 2015 was 590/518/414 yuan/ton respectively, and the growth rate of coal mining II index equity net profit from 2013 to 2015 was -29.3%, -36.8% and -111.8% respectively.
Low interest rate environment, superimposed with an innovative atmosphere, the stock market risk appetite has increased. In the low interest rate environment, policies encourage innovation and entrepreneurship, encourage the development of "Internet +" industries, GEM private placement financing, etc. are emerging one after another, market risk appetite has significantly improved, increasing leverage in the stock market has become a common practice, and margin financing and securities lending have increased significantly in the market. Enthusiasm in the capital market is high, coupled with the exaggeration of relevant media, the market has risen significantly.
Coal index rose 80%, no relative gain . In the rising market from 2013 to 2015, loose monetary policy + relaxed regulatory policies played a very important role. The computer sector rose first in the range, which rose 4.3 times, while the coal mining II index rose by 80%. Significantly lower than the market average increase of 2.3 times, an obvious negative return.
4. Supply-side reform has created the fourth wave of valuation increases in the coal industry
The fourth stage: August 26, 2015 - October 25, 2016, lasting for 14 months, Shenwan Industry Index Coal The mining price-to-earnings ratio rose from 33.76 to 97.02, an increase of 187%. Shenwan Industry Index Coal mining net profit (TTM) fell from 21.3 billion to 8.7 billion yuan, a drop of 59%. The Coal Mining II Index rose 26% from 2635 points to 3314 points. The rise in the coal stock market was driven by the valuation side.
Economic characteristics of this period : supply-side structural reform, economic growth first fell and then rose, the same was true for industrial output, fixed asset investment growth first fell and then rose, the CPI price index was relatively moderate, and commodity prices bottomed out After rebounding, coal prices fell first and then rose, and the performance of listed coal companies hit bottom and then rose.
During this period, supply-side structural reform had a profound impact on the economy and society. Take the coal and steel industries as examples. In February 2016, the State Council issued the "Opinions on Resolving Excess Production Capacity and Achieving Development in the Coal Industry". The document requires that starting from 2016, it will take 3-5 years to withdraw 500 million tons of production capacity and reduce 500 million tons of capacity will be reorganized, and all coal mines will implement production for 276 working days (equivalent to production at 84% of capacity). In February 2016, the "Opinions on the Steel Industry to Resolve Excess Production Capacity and Achieve Development out of Difficulties" required that starting from 2016, it would take five years to reduce crude steel production capacity by 100 million to 150 million tons. The main task was to strictly prohibit new production capacity and resolve excess capacity. production capacity, strict law enforcement and supervision, and promote industry upgrading.
From 2015 to 2017, the growth rate of fixed asset investment first fell and then rose. The growth rate of real estate investment has experienced a gradual increase from 2015 to 2017. The growth rates of real estate investment reached 1.0%, 6.9% and 7.0% respectively in 2015, 2016 and 2017, and the growth rates of infrastructure construction investment were 17.3%, 17.3% and 7.0% respectively. 15.7%, 14.9%. Manufacturing fixed asset investment experienced a process of first falling and then rising, with growth rates of 8.1%, 4.2% and 4.8% respectively. Fixed asset investment resumed growth and under the background of supply-side reform, commodity production capacity and output increased significantly. Decline, Nanhua Industrial Products Index ushered in a bull market.
GDP and industrial added value growth first fell and then rose. During this period, the GDP growth rate dropped from 6.9% in 2015 to 6.7% in 2016, and then rose to 6.8% in 2017, averaging at a mid-to-high level of 6.8%. It experienced a process of first falling and then rising. The growth rate of industrial added value in 2015/16/17 was 6.1%, 6.0% and 6.6% respectively, with an average of 6.2%. It also experienced a process of first falling and then rising.
In 2015, the central bank released more liquidity. The central bank enhanced market liquidity through multiple RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in 2015. From August 2015 to October 2016, the 6-month short-term loan interest rate was reduced from 4.6% to 4.35%. The loan interest rate was reduced from 5.15% to 4.90%.
As GDP growth bottomed out and rebounded, M1 and social financing growth also bottomed out and rebounded.015Q3/2015Q4/ The average monthly growth rate of M1 in 2016Q1/2016Q2/2016Q3/2016Q4 was 9.1%, 15.0%, 19.4%, 23.7%, 25.1%, 22.7% respectively, which continued to rise. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock also increased from 2015 It rose from 11.9% at the end of the second quarter to 12.7% at the end of October 2016.
CPI continued to be moderate during this period. From the price index of , the CPI was relatively moderate in 2015, 2016, and 2017. The CPI was 1.4%, 2.0%, and 1.6% respectively. It was only in 2016 that the inflation index expanded to a certain extent.
During the same period, the 10-year government bond yield trend showed a trend of first falling and then rising. 015/16/17 The three-year and 10-year government bond yields averaged 3.3%, 2.9% and 3.6% respectively. They began to expand in 2017, indicating that the return on capital in the society is increasing and economic activities are on a positive trend.
From the perspective of the coal industry, coal prices first bottomed out from 2015 to 2017 and then rebounded, as did the performance of listed coal companies. The average price of Qingang 5500K thermal coal from 2015 to 2017 was 414/469/636 yuan/ton respectively, and the growth rate of coal mining II index equity net profit from 2015 to 2017 was -111.8%, +3480% and +168.8% respectively.
The coal index rose 24%, with relative gains. 015.8-2016.10 During the rising market, the coal mining II index rose by 24%, significantly higher than the market average increase of 12%. The increase was second only to automobiles (33%), food and beverages (32%), and household appliances (29%). It has achieved significant results. relatively positive returns.
Summary: When coal stocks have excess returns, coal prices will rise
By reviewing the four coal bull markets in the past 20 years, we found that coal stocks had excess returns in the first, second and fourth stages, and the third There is no excess return in this stage, the details are as follows:
The first stage: time interval is 2005/11/15-2007/10/16. During this time period, GDP ushered in rapid growth, industrial output grew rapidly, M1 and social The financial growth rates are also upward. The CPI growth rate first hovered at a low level and then rose. The 10-year government bond yield first hovered at a low level and then rose. The overall coal price fluctuated upward. The rise of the coal stock market was mainly driven by both performance and valuation. Coal stocks have Relative benefits.
The second stage: the time interval is 2008/11/28-2009/12/4. During this time period, GDP and industrial output growth first fell and then rose, M1 and social financing growth rates both increased, and CPI increased. Suhe 10-year government bond yields first fell and then rose, coal prices fell first and then rose. The rise in the coal stock market was mainly driven by valuations, and coal stocks had relative gains.
The third stage: the time interval is 2013/7/8-2015/6/12. During this time period, the growth rate of GDP and industrial output is downward, the growth rate of M1 and social finance are both downward, and the CPI growth rate is downward. Hovering at low levels, the 10-year treasury bond yield first rose and then fell, and coal prices fell overall. The rise in the coal stock market was mainly driven by valuations, and there was no relative return on coal stocks.
The fourth stage: the time interval is 2015/8/26-2016/10/25. During this time period, GDP and industrial output growth first fell and then increased, M1 and social financing growth rates both increased, and CPI increased The 10-year government bond yield first fell and then rose, and coal prices fell first and then rose. The rise in the coal stock market was mainly driven by valuation, and coal stocks had relative gains.
Summary and Enlightenment: We found that when coal stocks have excess returns, GDP growth will rise, coal prices will rise, and the performance of listed coal companies will also rise. It can be said that, The expected rise in coal prices is a necessary condition for coal stocks to achieve excess returns. In the post-supply-side reform era, coal prices have entered a new normal and price elasticity has become weaker. The shock range may be 500-600 yuan/ton in the next few years. The current coal price is hitting its downward low since 2017. We need to pay attention to the opportunities for restorative growth in coal stocks and coal prices brought about by the economic rebound after the subsequent resumption of production and work, focusing on leading companies: China Shenhua , Shaanxi Coal Industry, Yanzhou Coal Industry, Lu'an Environmental Energy , Xishan Coal and Electricity, Huaibei Mining, etc.
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(The views of the report belong to the original author and are for reference only. Source of the report: Zhongtai Securities)
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