(This article is compiled by the public account Yuesheng Research (yslc927yj). It is for reference only and does not constitute operation advice. If you operate by yourself, pay attention to position control and take risks at your own risk.)
Is it difficult to judge whether a stock has reached the top? It is not easy. Only people with strong market sense and observation ability can truly and accurately judge whether a stock that is rising strongly has reached the top. Only by judging that a stock has reached the top can we avoid taking orders at high positions and become a high-position taker.
In fact, when the main force wants to control a stock, no matter in any stage, such as the main fund-raising stage, the wash-out stage, the pull-up stage, the long-taking stage, etc., it has various characteristics, which reflects the knowledge of the stock market. Characteristics of the source; when the main force reaches any stage, it has different characteristics. Similar to a stock that rises strongly, it also has various characteristics before it reaches the top. You can judge from the following methods.
Methods for judging whether a strongly rising stock has reached the top:
Judge from the trading volume
Judge from the real-time market
Judge from the chip distribution chart
Judge from the news combined with stock performance
Of course, you want to judge whether a stock is strong There are many methods and characteristics to determine whether a stock has reached the top after rising. Today I will explain to you these four methods to judge. In fact, to judge whether a stock has reached the top in real stock trading, the methods are not more but more precise. As long as you master the above four methods In any of these ways, you can avoid the fate of becoming a high-ranking receiver. How to judge specifically is analyzed in detail below.
(1) Judging the level of trading volume
The rise and fall of stocks are most closely related to trading volume. The rise and fall are driven by trading volume. Therefore, there is a saying in the stock market that "with volume comes price." The relationship between volume and price coordination of stocks, such as volume first and price second.
If you want to judge a stock based on its trading volume, you can judge a stock based on its bottom-end accumulation stage, that is, even if the average trading volume is measured continuously, when the stock rises sharply for a period of time, the trading volume will be 10 times the volume. It is a risk reminder. Once the high trading volume reaches 20 times the low average volume, 90% of this time means that the top sign is obvious. As the trading volume increases, the stock turnover rate is very high. At this time, it is not ruled out that the main force starts to distribute chips at a high level to achieve such a large trading volume. Therefore, 10 times and 20 times are used as the dividing line to judge the top position of the stock.
For example, when a stock is at a low level, the average daily trading volume is 1 million yuan, and when the stock starts its main rise and reaches a high level, the trading volume reaches 10 million yuan. When the stock reaches the top, that is, after the madness, the trading volume surges to 2,000 yuan. When it reaches 10,000, it is basically the top. Don’t touch the high stocks that have released huge amounts.
(2) Stock time-sharing market to judge
stocks. Don’t look at the sell five positions and the buy five positions. In fact, these orders contain a lot of information. If the main force wants to control a stock to achieve what purpose, the main force The purpose of the main force will be achieved through the handicap language; for example, various means such as invisible large orders, split orders, support orders, pressure orders, etc. can achieve the purpose of controlling the market.
As shown in the picture above, if you want to judge whether a stock has reached the top from the time-sharing market, the most obvious market characteristic is that there are many super large orders at buy one to five positions every day, which means to tell investors There are already huge orders to buy this stock, and the stock price will not fall. But this is not the case in reality. Large buy orders are often seen in real-time transactions, but the stock price does not rise, and the stock price of large buy orders remains unchanged. When the stock is at a high level, if this kind of signal appears, it is a high probability top, and the main force has gradually The shipment has started, chips are distributed at a high level, and the accuracy of judging from the handicap is very high.
(3) Judgment by chip peak
In fact, stock chip peak is a very important indicator for stock trading. Chips can tell at what price the current stock has excessive chips, and in what area the cost of the main chips is; the most important point is the main chip peak , the main peak is the main chip, because the main force's funds are huge, once the main force enters the market, there will inevitably be a main chip peak.
As shown in the picture above, the original main chip peak of the main force was around 30 yuan. As the stock price rose, the main chip peak began to move up, but it moved up very slowly. But one of the most obvious characteristics is that if a stock rises sharply, and then at a high level, the trading volume increases sharply, and the main chip peak appears at the high level, and the main chip peak at the bottom gradually disappears; in this case, 99% of the cases are The stock has reached the top, and the main force has begun to induce long shipments. This kind of stock should not be touched. Safety first, it is best to stay away.
(4) The news side is judged by combining the stock performance.
The news side is the most favorite stock trading content for retail investors, and many retail investors like to follow the news for stock trading. However, in the actual market, many times the real good news is bad news, and bad news is good. News; for example, when the main force wants to accumulate funds, some bad news always appears, and the stock price drops slightly; when the main force wants to ship, good news continues, but the stock price does not rise and appears sideways.
As shown in the picture above, some stocks have already experienced peaking signals after a sharp rise in the early stage. At this time, the main force continues to release good news for the market at high levels in order to be able to ship smoothly at high levels. But every time after good news, it opens higher and moves lower, keeping the stock price from rising or falling, always oscillating between a certain area. Even if the stock price rises, it can't rise. Even if the stock price falls, it won't work. It will be restored soon. Good news keeps appearing, and the stock price not rising in the early stage is also a risk signal. This phenomenon also needs to be paid attention to when it appears at a high level.
How to improve the accuracy of judging whether a stock has reached the top?
In fact, I have analyzed four methods for judging whether a stock has reached the top above. But if you really want to improve this method and achieve an accuracy of 95%, you must combine various methods and not be too single. In other words, it cannot be determined based on a certain characteristic. Because the stock market is full of truth and falsehoods, no one can guarantee that this information is accurate.
So if you really want to judge whether a stock has reached the top, you can comprehensively analyze it from various aspects such as trading volume, chips, news, market openings, K-lines, moving averages, etc. First of all, we must judge whether the stock has reached its top. As long as the stock has reached the top, you should stay away. Just don't touch such stocks. Stay away from high-priced stocks and stay away from bubble stocks.
Based on the above analysis, we came to the conclusion
If you want to judge whether a stock is at a high or a bottom, or is in the middle of a main rise, these are all observed after a period of time, and you must track the main purpose of periodic market control. For example, if the current main force wants to attract funds, wash the market, or ship goods, as long as you understand the main force's trump card, when the stock is at a high level and there is a bullish temptation, and there are signs of shipment, you don't need to make too many judgments. This stock is big. The probability is that it has reached the top, and the main force has already wanted to sell out and cash in profits. At this time, as retail investors, we must sell in time and cannot become the main guard.
Reasons for rising prices and falling prices
When stock prices fluctuate significantly, it is often because stock market makers are manipulating the market. So below I have summarized for you the circumstances under which stock market makers will rise and then fall.
Scenario 1: High-priced shipments
After the stock price has risen for a long time, in order to be able to ship smoothly, the market makers will use the method of raising the stock price to attract investors to enter the market and take orders. Therefore, the stock market maker will quickly raise the stock price, but when the stock price rises to a certain level, it will fall back. During the fall, the stock market maker will gradually sell chips to investors who enter the market to take over the market. By.
Situation 2: trial trading after opening a position in the bottom stock
The stock market maker will also use this form to place orders after the stock position is established in the bottom area. At this time, the purpose of the stock market maker is to test based on this method. Are outside funds optimistic about the stock's later market trends? If it is promising, then when the stock price rises rapidly, it will attract outside funds to invest.On the contrary, after the stock price is raised rapidly, outside funds will not respond, and the atmosphere for participating in operations is very sluggish.
At the same time, the market maker can also detect the number of floating chips in the market through this method. If there are a lot of floating chips in the market, then the stock price will rise after and fall back to , which will cause a lot of selling pressure and may cause a huge amount of selling pressure. As a result, transaction volume continued to increase. Under this phenomenon, stock market makers will enter the washout stage.
On the contrary, if there are very few fluctuating chips in the day, then after the stock price rises and falls, there will be few active selling orders in the day, and the trading volume will be extremely sluggish. Under this phenomenon, the stock market maker will directly let the stock price enter the stage of rising, and the stock price will go out of a wave of rising trend.
Scenario 3: Key technical pressure level
When the stock price moves near the key technical pressure position, such as the 60-day moving average, the half-year line, and the annual line, this kind of rising and falling trend will also occur. This is caused by the stock market maker trying to break through this technical pressure position in one fell swoop, but was blocked by the resistance of this position.
Situation 4: The stock price is rising midway
When the stock price is rising, stock market makers will often use this method to make orders in order to detect the follow-up of outside funds. After the stock market maker quickly raises the stock price, there will be an active fall back, in order to detect whether outside funds are actively entering the market during the fall of the stock price.
Dark Cloud Cover
Application Rules:
Here are some reference factors. If the Dark Cloud Cover pattern has these characteristics, it will help enhance its bearish technical weight.
(1) In a dark cloud cover pattern, the deeper the closing price of the black real body penetrates downward into the previous white real body, the greater the chance that the pattern will constitute a market top.
(2) The dark cloud cover pattern occurs in a super long-term upward trend. Its first day is a strong white entity, its opening price is the lowest price (the bare K-line), and its closing price is The highest price (bald K-line); its second day is a long negative line entity, its opening price is at the highest price, and the closing price is at the lowest price (this is a bald and bald negative line).
(3) In the dark cloud cover pattern, if the opening price of the second negative body is higher than an important resistance position, but the market fails to hold on successfully, it may mean that bulls are no longer able to control the market.
(4) If the trading volume in the market is very large when the market opens the next day, the volume will be excessive.
As shown above, the K-line chart of this stock. Along with the speculation of phosphate rock, the stock closed a long negative line that day, eating up more than half of the real body of the positive line on April 18. The bulls have collapsed, the trading volume is large enough, and the main force has fled. Don't I have illusions. Although there will be some small rebound later, the stock price has continued to fall by 30%, which is worth pondering!
The "inverted hammer line" is a key sign before the super bull stocks soar.
When the upper shadow line is longer ( When there is no lower shadow or the lower shadow is very short, the K-line shape is like an inverted hammer, commonly known as "inverted hammer line". According to different entities, the inverted hammer can be divided into a positive inverted hammer (or a positive upper shadow) and a negative inverted hammer (or a negative upper shadow).
The inverted hammer Yang line means that the stock price rises and falls back at the opening, and the upward trend is blocked. Although the closing price is still higher than the opening price, there is resistance above, which can be regarded as a weakness.
The negative line of the inverted hammer means that the stock price rises and falls back at the opening, the upward trend is blocked, and the closing price is lower than the opening price, indicating that the seller's power is greater than the buyer's power, which is also a weakness.
In terms of form, the inverted hammer line and the shooting star line in the top form are the same. They are both star lines with long upper shadows. However, one is a signal that appears at the top, and the other is a signal that is established at the bottom. The two are obviously different.Many friends don't understand. In fact, the truth is very simple. The "form" is the same but the effect is different. The reason is that the "potential" is different. The same steamed bun is a delicacy to a hungry person, but to a full person it is not. It is worthless. The same thing will naturally have different effects when it appears at different times.
The inverted hammer line is at a relatively high level:
If the inverted hammer line appears at a relatively high level, it is usually a bearish pattern. As shown below, the trend chart of World Bank from August to September 2017 is a typical case.
So what if the inverted hammer appears at a relatively low level? Of course, we are also looking at the bullish pattern, but this situation is relatively rare, so everyone knows it. For example, after the exchange rate reform on August 11, 2015, after the second thousand-share limit drop, the Shanghai Composite Index came out of an inverted hammer line, and then launched an intermediate rebound. As shown below.
This form appears at the top, which means that the attack is blocked, so it can easily become the head; when it appears at the bottom, it represents a tentative upward attack by many parties, which is a trial trading behavior. The purpose is to test the degree of locking of the chips. Once the chips are well locked, the main force will It is possible to launch a round of market upwards, and the bottom will be established.
hammer line characteristics:
(1) appears on the way down
(2) the positive line (can also be a negative line) has a small real body, and the lower shadow is greater than or equal to twice the real body
(3) generally has no upper shadow, a few There will be a slight signal that the upper shadow line has bottomed out. The greater the disparity between the bullish hammer entity and the lower shadow line in the market outlook, the more valuable it is for reference. If the hammer and morning star appear at the same time, the bottom signal will be more reliable.
[Example of individual stocks]
As shown in the picture, the daily K-line chart of Wuliangye is shown. When the stock price reached a new low, it also received a positive line that day. This shows that the bulls have begun a counterattack and the bears have failed to continue to control the market. A long upper shadow indicates that bulls have pushed the stock price up significantly. Therefore, investors can buy stocks in small quantities at this time.
This is the trend chart of C&D Shares (600153). You can see that there are two long negative lines in the K-line chart, and they opened low, indicating that the stock price is falling rapidly, but after the two large negative lines, An inverted hammer line showed that after receiving support from many parties, a test move was carried out, and the chips were locked. Another positive line appeared the next day, indicating that the short side was unable to perform, and another small-scale upward trend began.
Stock trading wisdom and life insights:
1. The most difficult thing about stock trading is not stock picking or buying and selling, but waiting; the most difficult thing in life is not hard work or struggle, but choice.
2. For people with self-discipline, pain is also joy in the stock market; where there is hope, hell is also heaven.
3. When you can fly, don’t give up flying. When you can dream, don’t give up dreaming. When you can love, don’t give up loving. When you can hold on a little longer, don’t give up persistence. In the stock market, people always give up what has not risen and chase what has risen; in life, people always cherish what they have not got and forget what they have.
4. The reason why you lose money in stock trading is not because your thinking is simple, but because your wants are complicated; the reason why people are happy is not because they get more, but because they care less.
5. The saddest thing in the world is to have eyes but turn a blind eye, to have ears but turn a deaf ear. No matter in the stock market or in life, everyone does not lack opportunities, but what they lack is wisdom and perseverance.
6. If you can't grasp the sand, put it down; if you can't grasp the opportunity, let it go! In the stock market, the necessary giving up is not failure but wisdom; in life, the necessary giving up is not reduction but sublimation.
7. In life, what kind of mood you have will have what kind of ending; in life, what kind of thoughts you have will have what kind of way of living; in the stock market, what kind of actions you have will have what kind of ending. same result.
8. Successful people say: Although this is difficult, it is possible; losers say: Although it is possible, it is too difficult. Although this is only a small difference, it is destined to have different results.
If this article is helpful to you or you have any doubts, you can follow the public account Yuesheng Research (yslc927yj). More market outlook operations and stock technical analysis methods are waiting for you to learn, and there is a constant supply of useful information!
(The above content is for reference only, not constitute operational recommendations.If you operate by yourself, please pay attention to position control and take risks at your own risk. )
Statement: This content is provided by Yuesheng Research, which does not mean that Investment Express endorses its investment views.
