colored ETFs continue to surge, hitting new highs! But when the market is hot, it is still very important to be wary of overheating!
related information:
1, Shanghai Metal Network: London Metal Exchange adds a deferred delivery mechanism to all major contracts.
2, Shanghai Metal Network: Last week, speculative funds reduced their net long positions in the copper market for the second consecutive week.
3, Shanghai Metal Network: The EU plan launched a proposal on Tuesday to "significantly reduce energy dependence on Russia."
4, Shanghai Metal Network: The EU will propose to reduce Russian natural gas imports by more than 70% within the year.
Based on the above information, Cinda Futures Research Institute believes that the relevant investment suggestions on March 8 are as follows.
Copper core logic and operational suggestions
core logic: In the short term, the EU and the United States continue to take actions, and sanctions are various and even want to spread to the energy sector. Funds are dominated by the international situation , so we should wait and see with caution; domestic inventories have increased significantly. , foreign inventories have shown a more obvious destocking state. Generally speaking, low inventory support is still there, but there are differences. The long and short factors on the market are anxious, and copper prices fluctuate violently in the short term, with internal and external differentiation. In the mid-term, after the interest rate hike and boots are implemented in March, we still believe that Shanghai Copper will rise while waiting for demand to develop.
market situation: Previously, non-ferrous metals had risen sharply. Last night, LME nickel violently rose by nearly 80% overnight, which attracted great attention from the London Stock Exchange. Crude oil in the energy sector once rose to 140 US dollars per barrel, and was once pushed higher. market sentiment. Last night, Lun Copper fell by 3.36 percentage points, and Shanghai Copper fell by 2.29 percentage points. Mainly reflected in the reduction of net long positions in the domestic copper market by more than 2,600 lots. CFTC stated that last week, speculative funds reduced their net long positions in the copper market for the second consecutive week, indicating that the current market is worried about overheating, and speculative funds have once again withdrawn funds and sought hedging. Overseas is at the center of the whirlpool. After the passion, risk aversion becomes even stronger.
spot transaction: According to Shanghai Metal Network, downstream consumption performance was average yesterday, with rising water rising by 35 yuan/ton. The sharp rise in copper prices has suppressed downstream demand, and spot premiums continue to decline. The mainstream transactions of flat copper are at a premium of around 80 yuan, and the mainstream transactions of good copper are at a premium of around 100 yuan. Although there was a slight increase later, the transactions were less, and wet copper remained the same. rare.
Technical analysis: The game of long and short power, the bottom is rising, the top is testing upward, the bull trend is more obvious
Strategy recommendations: In the mid-term, it is recommended to continue to hold long orders, and a small amount of positions can be added when there is a callback opportunity
Focus: Interest rate hike progress, domestic inventories continue Significant inventory accumulation, Russia-Ukraine situation
Electrolytic aluminum core logic and operation suggestions
core logic: At present, Yunnan and other aluminum plants are accelerating the pace of resuming production, social inventories are increasing rapidly, and domestic supply is relatively loose. However, electrolytic aluminum is greatly affected by market sentiment, and the supply of electrolytic aluminum at home and abroad is expected to further diverge in the future. The recent market fluctuations have become more violent, and the external market will be stronger than the internal market of . However, in the long term, due to environmental protection factors, domestic supply is limited. , coupled with the strong expected recovery in demand and the combined effect of supply and demand, we are still optimistic about Shanghai Aluminum.
disk situation: Yesterday, Lun Aluminum fell sharply by 2.83 percentage points, and Shanghai Aluminum fell by 4.74 percentage points. We reminded a few days ago that the trends of internal and external diverged. The main performance of the domestic market was a net long reduction of 700 lots, and a net short increase. There are more than 3,000 positions in the warehouse, and the domestic market's expectations for electrolytic aluminum are more pessimistic. The main reason is that, on the one hand, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Western economic war have caused logistics disruptions. The aluminum trade between Europe, the United States and Russia may be significantly affected. Russia may have to increase exports of electrolytic aluminum to China, leaving domestic supply loose. On the other hand, the entire non-ferrous metal industry is currently showing signs of overheating. With the violent rise of nickel, speculative funds are pouring in, pushing up aluminum prices. The electrolytic aluminum market is also aware of the risk of overheated emotions and is gradually withdrawing funds. Furthermore, the current international situation is changing rapidly and funds are in a state of high caution, which is also the main factor behind the current sharp rise and fall in aluminum prices. But we need to note that once sanctions are imposed on the Russian energy and aluminum industries, it will be strongly bullish for electrolytic aluminum.Recently, electrolytic aluminum has shown a very obvious phenomenon that the external market is stronger than the internal market. The main reason is that the import cost is too high, the losses are expanding, and the import window is closed.
spot transaction: According to Shanghai Metal Network, the average spot price of electrolytic aluminum rose with the market. The holders in the East China market quoted an average price of -20 to the online price and the average price was -10 yuan/ton. The holders in the South China market quoted an average price of -10 yuan/ton. The average price quoted was around -10 yuan/ton. Yesterday, large households were not very willing to receive goods, and the receiving price in the East China market was around 23,850 yuan/ton. Generally speaking, the electrolytic aluminum spot market consumption is light.
technical analysis: the 60-day moving average rises upwards, and the short-term moving average moves flat.
strategic advice: It is recommended to continue to hold long orders; you can add a small amount of positions during corrections.
Focus: social inventory accumulation level, economic sanctions between Russia and Europe and the United States
