Article | After Yang Wanli
was fined by the Ministry of Finance for handling reimbursements, , Hengrui Medicine attracted the attention of investors again!
At the opening of trading on April 20, Hengrui Medicine opened lower and moved lower, with the highest intraday drop of nearly 3.2%. As of the midday close, the decline of Hengrui Medicine narrowed to 1.71%, the stock price was 80.69 yuan, and the total market value was 4,302 yuan. Real-time data from the
disk shows that the net outflow of main funds exceeded 850 million yuan in the morning, ranking third in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. From this point of view, the direct reason for the decline in the stock price of Hengrui Medicine is the selling of stocks by major funds.
Why should the main funds "run"? This requires contacting the latest financial report released by Hengrui Medicine .
html On the evening of April 19, Hengrui Pharmaceutical announced that the company achieved total operating income of 27.73 billion in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%; it achieved net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.33 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.8%.
It is worth noting that the revenue growth rate and net profit growth rate attributable to the parent company of Hengrui Medicine hit a new low since 2017. In addition, this performance data was also lower than the expectations of brokerage institutions.
On December 17, 2020, China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that the net profits attributable to the parent company of Hengrui Medicine from 2020 to 2022 are expected to be 6.569 billion yuan, 8.411 billion yuan, and 10.524 billion yuan respectively.
Data comes from China Galaxy Securities Research Report
On December 30, 2020, Soochow Securities estimated that Hengrui Medicine 's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2020 to 2022 would be 6.546 billion yuan, 8.489 billion yuan, and 10.939 billion yuan, year-on-year. Growth rates were 23.3%, 29.4%, and 28.9%.
The data comes from Soochow Securities Research Report
After comparison, it can be found that the net profit attributable to the parent company of Hengrui Medicine is lower than the values predicted by the above two securities firms.
Hengrui Medicine The stock price has experienced deep adjustments since the beginning of the year. Since hitting a historical high of 116.87 yuan on January 8 this year, Hengrui Medicine has entered a downward channel, falling as low as 79.31 yuan. In just 4 months, Hengrui Pharmaceutical fell as much as 32.13%, and its total market value evaporated by more than 190 billion yuan.
There are two "culprits" behind the decline of Hengrui Pharmaceutical's , which are to kill performance--the large-scale purchase of drugs has an impact on the company's performance and to kill valuation--the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is higher than that of peers.
Let’s first look at the impact of drug volume purchasing on Hengrui:
According to Southwest Securities analysis, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals ’s generic drug business revenue reached its peak from 2020 to 2021, and began to decline in 2022. Southwest Securities predicts that as the number of volume-purchased varieties increases, the revenue growth rate of Hengrui Medicine generic drugs will decrease by 14% and 20% respectively from 2021 to 2022, and the net profit rate will drop to about 15% in 2022.
The data comes from Southwest Securities
Recently, according to China Business News, the fifth batch of "Notices" for bulk purchases has begun to circulate in the industry, including cisatracurium besylate, iodixanol, oxaliplatin, and doxepin. Four drugs including Taxabet are planned to be included in the procurement scope.
According to the 2020 financial report, the sales volume of iodixanol injection under Hengrui Medicine in medical institutions is approximately 3.6455 million.
If calculated based on the winning bid price of 569.99-721 yuan/tube, the sales amount of iodixanol injection is between 2.077 billion yuan and 2.628 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 7.5% to 9.4% of the main revenue.
In addition, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals also produces ’s cisatracurium injection, but no detailed sales data were disclosed in the 2020 financial report.
Some market participants believe that the four drugs planned to be included in the purchase of cisatracurium besylate, iodixanol, oxaliplatin, and docetaxel respectively correspond to surgical anesthesia , imaging, and anti-tumor products. , anti-tumor treatment fields, and Hengrui’s main business involves precisely these businesses. Once centralized procurement starts, the performance or market share of Hengrui Pharmaceutical may be affected.
Let’s look at the valuation:
A set of data shows that the valuation center bottom of Hengrui Medicine in recent years is about 50 times. Currently, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of Hengrui Medicine exceeds 71 times, which is higher than the industry average of 63.23 times.
Compared with the valuation of comparable companies in the same industry, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of Fosun Pharmaceutical is less than 32 times, the dynamic price-earnings ratio of Livzon Group is less than 23 times, and the dynamic price-earnings ratio of Changchun High-tech is less than 63 times, which are all lower than Hengrui Medicine . In addition, the dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of Pfizer, a representative company of U.S. innovative pharmaceutical companies, is only 22.58 times, which is also lower than Hengrui Medicine .
After the Spring Festival, the liquor, pharmaceutical, and new energy sectors collectively fell. One core reason is that against the background of tightening liquidity in the domestic market, it is difficult for white horse stocks with higher valuations to continue to rise sharply. Hengrui Medicine had a higher valuation when its stock price exceeded the 100-yuan mark. Even after a sharp correction, the valuation is still higher than that of peer companies.
Today, Hengrui Pharmaceutical is faced with the impact of multiple factors such as slowdown in performance growth and large-scale drug purchases. Whether the market can regain market confidence ultimately depends on performance!
