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On the first trading day of the second half of 2022, US stocks rebounded significantly.
On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.05%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rising 0.9%, and the S&P 500 Index rising 1.06%. Popular Chinese concept stocks mostly rose, with Pinduoduo rising by more than 4%, Alibaba and JD.com rising by more than 2%. The semiconductor sector generally fell, with TSMC and ASML falling more than 5%, and Nvidia falling more than 4%.
U.S. stocks suffered heavy losses in the first half of the year, with all three major indexes recording their worst half-year performance since the second half of 2008. Comparing the first half of each era in history, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-15.31%) recorded its largest decline in the first half of the year since 1962, the S&P 500 Index (-20.58%) recorded its worst first half performance since 1970, and the Nasdaq Index (-29.51%) ) even set a historical record for the first half of the year.
Although historical data shows that after the stock market suffered a heavy setback in the first half of the year, the probability of rebounding in the second half of the year will be greater. However, Michael Burry, the prototype of the well-known film " The Big Short ", posted a warning on social media that the magnitude of this year's financial market plunge may currently be only half. He expects corporate earnings to fall, further pulling stocks lower.
This weekend, the United States will usher in the "Independence Day" holiday, and the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day next Monday (July 4).
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 1%, and the semiconductor sector plummeted
On July 1, local time, the three major U.S. stock indexes opened fell slightly, with violent shocks in the morning, and collectively rose in late trading. As of the close, the Dow rose 1.05% and fell 1.28% this week; the S&P 500 rose 1.06% and fell 2.21% this week; the Nasdaq rose 0.9% and fell 4.13% this week.
On the market, large technology stocks had mixed gains and losses, and the semiconductor sector generally fell. Amazon rose 3.15%, apple , Microsoft , Tesla rose more than 1%, Google closed down slightly, Facebook parent company Meta fell 0.76%, Nvidia fell more than 4%, TSMC Down 5.81%.
The financial sector strengthened, with JPMorgan Chase , Bank of America , Wells Fargo , and Citigroup all rising by more than 1%. The consumer sector was among the top gainers, with McDonald's, Coca-Cola, Anheuser-Busch InBev, and Colgate all rising more than 2%.
General Motors issued a revenue warning saying that its second-quarter sales fell 15% year-on-year due to supply chain and production chaos. However, after the company's stock price surged higher in early trading, it still rebounded and closed up 1.35% in late trading.
Popular Chinese concept stocks had mixed trends. Pinduoduo rose 4.89%, Alibaba and JD.com rose more than 2%, Li Auto and NIO fell more than 1%, Xpeng Motors fell 4.6%, and rose more than 3% at the beginning of the session. %.
"We have a holiday this weekend, and the market rebounded with retaliation in late trading." Joseph Sloka, chief investment officer of NovaPoint in Atlanta, said that we still need to wait for investors to return, and it remains to be seen whether the market can continue to rise.
Ingalls Snyder (IngallsSnyder) senior portfolio strategist Gesicki believes that the Fed still needs more evidence to change its attitude towards further interest rate . "While there were early signs that inflation may have peaked, there remains uncertainty about the economy and inflation," Gesicki said.
U.S. stocks lost 100 billion yuan in half a year, and the well-known "Big Short" warned
In the second quarter and first half of the year that just passed, U.S. stocks experienced rare selling pressure.
In this quarter, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 11.25% and the S&P 500 Index fell 16.45%, both the worst performances in a single quarter since the first quarter of 2020; the Nasdaq fell 22.44%, the largest quarterly decline since 2008. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index fell for two consecutive quarters. The last time this happened was in 2015. The Nasdaq Index experienced two consecutive quarterly declines in 2016. For the first time since 2009, the three major indexes have experienced two consecutive quarterly declines at the same time.
In the first half of the year, the S&P 500 Index fell by 20.58%, recording its worst first half performance since 1970. The decline in the first half of the year was approximately 21%; the Nasdaq Index fell by approximately 30%, ranking the first half-year decline in the history of the index. First place; the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 15.3%, the largest decline in the first half of the year since 1962. The three major U.S. stock indexes all had their worst half-year performance since the second half of 2008.Looking at the
sector, in the first six months of this year, large technology stocks suffered heavy losses. Netflix fell by about 71%, Meta fell by about 52%, Nvidia fell by more than 48%, Amazon and Tesla fell by about 36%, Apple, Microsoft, Google fell more than 20%. Energy stocks performed strongly, with Occidental Petroleum rising nearly 105%, Exxon Mobil rising more than 44%, ConocoPhillips and Chevron both rising more than 26%.
Wande data shows that as of June 30, the total market value of the U.S. stock market reached US$53.6 trillion, a decrease of more than US$15 trillion (equivalent to over 100 trillion yuan in RMB) from US$68.88 trillion at the end of last year.
Michael Burry, the prototype of the famous film "The Big Short," posted a message on social media on Thursday warning that the financial market's plunge this year may currently be only half as much. Burry expects corporate earnings to fall, further pulling stocks lower.
Dow Jones data shows that there have been only five times in history when the S&P 500 index fell by more than 15% in the first half of the year. In the second half of these five years, the index rebounded significantly, with an average rebound of 23.66%.
However, for the Nasdaq, there have been two years in history when the first half of the year fell by more than 20%, namely 2002 and 1973. In the second half of these two years, the Nasdaq fell by about 8.7%.
Xiaomo lowered its mid-year economic forecast for the United States, and European inflation hit a new high
html On July 1, Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the U.S. ISM manufacturing index in June was 53, significantly lower than expected. The May value was 56.1 (the dividing line between prosperity and decline is 50). The new orders index was 49.2, a sharp drop of nearly 6 points from 55.1 in May, and fell into a contraction zone, hitting the lowest level since May 2020.JPMorgan Chase economists lowered their mid-year economic growth forecast for the United States, lowering their second-quarter GDP growth forecast to 1% from the previous 2.5%, and lowering their third-quarter GDP growth forecast from 2% to 1%. "Our expectations are for a near-recession, but the economy will still grow." Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase, wrote that part of the growth is because employers may be reluctant to lay off employees, even if is in demand for products Weak times.
A CICC report pointed out that currently, U.S. inflation expectations are high, and controlling inflation expectations will be the Federal Reserve's top priority. Trading economic recession in exchange for price stability may be a necessary choice. History shows that "long-term pain is worse than short-term pain." The sooner inflation is controlled, the more favorable it may be for asset prices to rebound. Economic recession is not terrible. What is terrible is that the Federal Reserve compromised on inflation prematurely to avoid recession. Next, the Fed should continue to maintain a tough attitude towards inflation until the risk is relieved. If it "backs down" easily midway, the risk of inflation is likely to return.
On the same day, Eurostat released preliminary inflation data for June. The CPI (Consumer Price Index) in the Eurozone increased by 8.6% year-on-year in June, continuing to hit a record high. The previous value (in May) was an increase of 8.1%. Energy prices increased by 41.9%, compared with the previous value of 39.1%; food, tobacco and alcohol prices increased by 8.9% year-on-year, compared with the previous value of 7.5%.
From a country perspective, inflation in France and Spain further hit new highs in June, with Spain’s inflation rate reaching 10%. German inflation is expected to fall by 0.5 percentage points. However, the German Federal Statistics Office pointed out earlier that the impact of the supply chain disruption caused by the new crown epidemic, the public transportation ticket discounts and oil price subsidies launched by the government from June on the German inflation rate requires further observation. These impacts will be assessed when the final reading of inflation for June is released on July 13.
Editor: Ye Shuyun
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