After a childish debate with his re-election opponent, Trump was diagnosed with the new coronavirus , and the jobs report provided further evidence that the economic recovery has slowed. But despite this, U.S. stocks still managed to halt a four-week losing streak.
In the early hours of Friday morning, when news came that the Trumps and his wife were diagnosed with the new coronavirus, stock index futures fluctuated. Subsequently, there were reports that both Vice President Pence and former Vice President and current Democratic presidential candidate Biden tested negative for the new coronavirus. As a result, stocks pared losses at the close. Meanwhile, the White House said Trump would be taken to Walter Reed Hospital on Friday night as a precaution.
With only a month until Election Day, and voting having already begun in some states, it is too early to assess the impact of Trump's COVID-19 infection on the election. If Trump recovers quickly and fully and returns to the campaign trail, his poll numbers could surge. This is similar to British Prime Minister Johnson’s experience of being infected with the new coronavirus earlier this year. The latest polls for Friday are not out yet, but betting markets show Biden's odds of winning have risen sharply. However, betting markets are more volatile than polls, and results in early September already showed Trump and Biden were virtually evenly matched.
What is turbulent in the market is the uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election; this is reflected in the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) in the futures market. Price volatility for the November contract is higher than Friday's level of 27.63, considering this move covers Election Day and the weeks following and will reflect uncertainty about the outcome of the presidential election. Although all contract months retreated from Friday's highs, the price volatility index for the December and January contracts continued to fluctuate.
Trump's diagnosis of the new coronavirus has significantly raised expectations that the White House and congressional Democrats can reach a consensus on the fourth phase of the economic stimulus bill. Most of the thinking is that, without Trump's ability to hold campaign rallies, he will try to push for a deal to deal with the economic recovery's waning momentum.
The overall unemployment rate fell more than expected to 7.9% last month from 8.4% last month, but that was largely because about 700,000 people dropped out of the labor force. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said that if those misclassified as "employed but not employed" were correctly counted, the unemployment rate would be 0.4 percentage points higher. It has actually hit a low, with 10.7 million fewer people employed than before the COVID-19 outbreak in February.
Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reed noted that long before James Carville uttered his famous line, "Stupid, it's the economy." Unemployment was critical to a president's reelection. With one exception, they lost re-election due to high unemployment.
Reed said that Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter lost re-election as presidents in 1976 and 1980 due to "high structural unemployment " rates of 7.6% and 7.5% respectively. Old George Bush lost re-election in 1992 due to the recession of the early 1990s and the so-called huge rise in unemployment figures. Barack Obama Although he was re-elected in 2012 with an unemployment rate of 7.8%, Reid noted that this was because of an improving labor market resulting from the 2008 financial crisis.
Nella Richardson, a principal and investment strategist at the bank, said ahead of the release of the latest bureau employment figures, there was "enormous evidence" of a weak economic recovery, with airlines announcing more than 30,000 job cuts and Disney cutting 28,000 jobs. Edward Jones added in a phone interview that legislative relief may not come in time to avert a wave of layoffs.
The economy not only depends on politics, but also determines the direction of the stock market.But economic development depends on government policies. The Commerce Department reported last week that personal income plunged 2.7% in August as economic benefits, such as $600 weekly supplemental unemployment checks, ended. Spending rose by just 1%, helped by fewer transfer fees. But various real-time indicators, such as the New York Fed's Weekly Economic Indicators , have flattened since August.
With earnings season approaching next week, investors are already looking to the future of the economy. The economy in the third quarter will continue to be depressed by the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but it will be less important than company management's assessment of the coming quarters and years. Richardson said investors are betting their hopes on 2021, but she believes it could take longer for earnings to recover, perhaps three years. By then, the market will face the 2024 presidential election and the economy will still be uncertain.
#Trump#, #新冠#, #economicstimulus bill#
Author: Phoebe
Editor:Lu Yisi
