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Huayu News According to the China-Africa News Agency, South Africa has finally seen a glimmer of light at the end of the Covid-19 epidemic tunnel.
With infection rates and other key indicators steadily falling, there are hopes that the worst of the first wave of the pandemic is behind us, with lockdown rules potentially being eased as early as this week after the National Coronavirus Control Council (NCCC) meets on Tuesday .
President Ramaphosa is expected to address the nation no later than Saturday, when the state of disaster he declared in March will end.
Even though South Africa has passed the grim milestone of 10,000 deaths, experts say there are strong signs that deaths have already surged in the Western Cape, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape.
However, experts stress that KwaZulu-Natal has not yet reached the peak of the epidemic. Professor Salim Abdul Karim, chairman of national health minister Dr Mkhize's outbreak advisory committee, said he was "very worried" about his home state.
If the outbreak does occur in KwaZulu-Natal like in Gauteng, the number of cases will start to rise. Everything depends on developments in Kwa-Province this week.
The most obvious sign that the worst of the situation in South Africa is over is that the number of daily infections has almost halved from the peak of 13,944 on July 24. The purpose of the lockdown was to prevent medical facilities from being overstretched, but fortunately this did not happen.
Dr Mkhize said the Nasrec field hospital in Gauteng was only half full, a field hospital in Cape Town was being dismantled and shipped to the Eastern Cape and hospitals in KwaZulu-Natal should be able to cope .
Experts attribute the drop in infection rates to South Africa's strict and early lockdown. Another positive sign is that recovery rates rose to over 70% this week with the help of dexamethasone. Deaths in intensive care have fallen by a quarter since dexamethasone was introduced on June 16.
Dr Mkhize said: “The manifestations of the Covid-19 pandemic we have seen over the past few months are very different to what we initially thought. We initially thought there would be a surge in cases across the country as Gauteng had the highest number of cases. .”
However, he warned of a possible second wave of the epidemic and urged South Africans to remain vigilant.
"While we are cautiously optimistic, it is too early to draw firm conclusions about the observed decline. We need to continue to track all of these indicators and ensure that our testing capabilities reflect the reality of our epidemiological situation situation."
Dr Mkhize hinted at possible easing of lockdown rules. "We will make recommendations to the NCCC. Next week, we should be able to get some guidance from the NCCC and the president."
Another member of the ministerial advisory committee, Professor Shabir Mandi of Wits University, said in KwaZulu-Na Covid-19 "remains on the rise" in Taal, the Free State, Limpopo, Mpumalanga and possibly the Northern Cape. But in the Western Cape and Gauteng provinces, "we have reason to be optimistic... at least for this wave," said Professor Debbie Bradshaw, chief expert scientist at the South African Medical Research Council. , the latest "excess deaths" report she co-authored suggests that "in addition to the Western Cape having already peaked, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape may have also peaked".
With infection rates falling across the country and the number of active Covid-19 cases falling 20% from their peak over the past three weeks, social scientists and economists are turning their attention to the impact of the epidemic.
Professor Sara Mosota, director of the National Institute of Humanities and Social Sciences, said there would be long-term aftershocks in the poorest communities. Her team conducted research in five towns: Soweto, Alexandra, Dipsloot, Khayelitsha and Umlazi and found that 42% of households had no income during the lockdown.
The South African Federation of Trade Unions' Siswe Pamla said the economy had paid a "huge price" for the lockdown."We're going to have a lot of people losing their jobs and they're not going to be able to pay their debts. We're probably going to see a run on pensions and provident funds because people are going to become desperate."
Political economist Silke said South Africa would emerge from the lockdown Out, it becomes an economic wasteland that will take years to come back to life. Economist Roth compared the region to Beirut, the capital of Lebanon. Last week, parts of the Lebanese capital Beirut were flattened by a massive ammonium nitrate explosion.
He said: "On an individual basis, millions of people will lose their jobs. We will see an increase in poverty, hunger and misery. We will see thousands of businesses fail because of bankruptcy."
Science and Redwan Suliman, a senior researcher at the Industrial Research Council who is tracking Covid-19 in a personal capacity, said infection rates were stabilizing and the steady positivity rate in tests over the past three weeks was encouraging.
However, infection rates remain high and "until we increase testing, significantly reduce positivity rates and have a fuller understanding of where the virus is spreading, we are not out of the woods yet."
The number of recoveries is increasing, Suliman said , but the mortality rate is also increasing. "Deaths lag behind cases by about three weeks and, while still increasing, will hopefully soon follow the trajectory of cases and stabilize. There is always a risk of clusters continuing to break out and spread in hotspots, so this needs to be addressed Control."
Abode Karimi says it is too early to say South Africa has the upper hand in the fight against Covid-19. "Our hospitalizations are going down. Our infections are going down, so it's telling that we're actually going downhill right now. But it could change at any time. It's a promising trend, but it's going to go downhill." It's too early to conclude. You can't be complacent. You can't stop your prevention and this thing comes back."
He said it was difficult to decide whether to lower the lockdown alert level. It's difficult to make any decisions at the moment because we're not sure yet whether this downward trend is solid.
"We will need at least another week or two of news before we know for sure. Most of the information will come from KwaZulu-Natal."
Mandi, who is in charge of South Africa's Covid-19 vaccine program, said Gauteng and the Western Cape His optimism is bolstered by the fact that “these two areas have a large proportion of the population and are high-density areas,” so this is “where the virus is wreaking havoc.”
He said Gauteng had reached its peak but was "still at a high level" with high hospitalization rates. "The worst is not over yet, but there are some promising signs and our medical facilities do not appear to be completely overwhelmed yet."
However, "we are nowhere near the end of this outbreak, let alone the subsequent ones." We will have other outbreaks, and the big question is whether this one will be bigger or smaller than the first one," said Suliman, although the number of tests has dropped - from the previous one. Cases per day dropped from 48,000 in March to 33,000 per day - but the steady positivity rate confirms that new infections have stabilized at around 24%; in other words, there is one positive case for every 4 or so tests carried out.
The case doubling rate dropped from 14 days to 37 days, and the mortality doubling rate dropped from 11 days during the level 4 lockdown to 21 days. (Original title: “We have reason to be optimistic”! How South Africa tamed the Covid-19 storm)
Source: China-Africa News Service
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