Since the second half of this year, the global energy crisis has intensified. Not only has the price of natural gas skyrocketed, but the cumulative increase of the two major international crude oil futures this year has also exceeded 60%. For this reason, many countries around the world have taken measures to try to lower oil prices, but major oil-producing countries have no obvious willingness to increase production. In the face of high oil prices, how do all parties play the game, and what impact does it have on the trend of oil prices?
The United States releases 50 million barrels of crude oil reserves. International oil prices rose instead of falling.
On November 23, local time, U.S. President Biden announced that the country would release 50 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves in mid-to-late December. to restrain oil prices from rising too quickly.
After the United States announced this measure, India also stated that it would release 5 million barrels of crude oil, and the United Kingdom was preparing to release 1.5 million barrels. In addition, Japan and South Korea also expressed plans to release strategic crude oil reserves.
Just after the United States announced the release of strategic crude oil reserves, the market on that day sang against it. Data shows that on November 23, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery in January 2022 on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the United States closed at US$78.50/barrel, an increase of 2.28%; London Brent crude oil for delivery in January 2022 futures price closed at US$82.31/barrel, an increase of 3.27%.
Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University Lin Boqiang : The current global consumption is about 100 million barrels per day, Biden’s 50 million barrels, plus Japan, India, and South Korea, I think it will be seven in the end. Eighty million barrels are not enough for one day. 's release of strategic oil reserves usually reflects the government's determination and expectations, and is not enough to affect the entire supply and demand balance.
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC and its allies do not buy into the joint release of reserves by many countries. According to the original plan, they would increase crude oil production by 400,000 barrels per day in January and February 2022. Now this plan may be suspended. In fact, the U.S. government has repeatedly asked OPEC and its allies to significantly increase production, but has been rejected.
Under the fierce competition between all parties, major institutions have raised their expectations for international oil prices. However, on November 26, affected by the news of the new crown mutant strain "Omicron", international oil prices fell sharply. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery in January next year on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at US$68.15 per barrel, a drop of 13.06%; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in January next year closed at It was US$72.72 per barrel, a decrease of 11.59%.
Wang Zhen, President of the CNOOC Energy Economic Research Institute: The emergence of mutant viruses has changed market expectations. For the future, many parties may be surrounding the epidemic and economic uncertainty will increase. In fact, oil prices will still be high. Level fluctuations intensified.
Australian oil prices hit a record high, price comparison software "invalid"
The game between oil-producing countries and consuming countries is becoming increasingly fierce. Behind this is the rising international oil prices, which has brought huge pressure to the economic lives of various countries.
Recently, with the soaring price of gasoline in Australia, a software that can help customers filter nearby gas stations has become popular in Australia. However, as the price of gasoline continues to rise, it is now difficult to find cheap gasoline using this search software. According to data from
, , on November 11, the price of gasoline in Australia hit a record high, reaching 1.94 Australian dollars/liter, which is approximately RMB 8.8/liter, an increase of approximately 44% from this year's low point.
In Ghana, Africa, people here are also troubled by rising oil prices. Taxi drivers in the capital, Accra, are having a particularly difficult time now.
This week is the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, but high gas prices have dampened people's enthusiasm for the holiday. On November 22, the national average gasoline price reached $3.4/gallon, setting the highest price on Monday of Thanksgiving week since 2012 and an increase of 62% compared to the same period last year. Among them, the West Coast region has the highest gasoline prices in the United States, with an average price of $4.19 per gallon.
Since the beginning of this year, international oil prices have continued to rise, and the increase has reached an astonishing 60%. This has caused the global gasoline price to soar. Taking Japan as an example, the country’s gasoline prices have soared by 21% compared with last year. It has reached a new high in in the past seven years. In addition, gasoline prices in the United Kingdom, South Korea and India have also risen to highs in recent years.
There is a huge gap between crude oil supply and demand. The U.S. Energy Secretary was questioned
Although many countries around the world have jointly introduced measures to stabilize oil prices, industry insiders believe that growing demand and changes in the global energy landscape will make it difficult to reverse the trend of international oil prices in the short term. It's not easy.
On November 23, the White House in the United States staged an "interlude". Just after Biden finalized the release of a total of 50 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves in mid-to-late December, US Energy Secretary Granholm was asked by reporters.
CBS reporter Ed O'Keefe : Do you know how many barrels of crude oil the United States consumes every day?
U.S. Secretary of Energy Granholm : Sorry, I don’t have this data.
CBS reporter Ed O'Keefe : Data show that this number is about 18 million barrels per day (in 2020), which means that the strategic reserves released by the government cannot last three days.
data shows that since the beginning of this year, U.S. crude oil consumption has been approximately 19.68 million barrels per day, an increase of approximately 7.5% over last year; at the same time, the average U.S. crude oil production in October was 11.4 million barrels per day, a decrease from the same period in 2019 12%, which further widened the gap between supply and demand.
Recently, Holub, CEO of Occidental Petroleum Company , publicly called out Biden, hoping to revitalize the shale oil industry and fill the gap between supply and demand.
However, some oil companies have not continued to increase their bets on traditional fossil energy and have instead devoted themselves to the development of new energy businesses. In November this year, ExxonMobil announced that it would invest US$15 billion, approximately RMB 95.8 billion, in low-carbon projects in the next five years; in October, Chevron announced that by 2028 In 2020, the company's investment in low-carbon business will increase to more than 10 billion US dollars, approximately 63.8 billion yuan, more than three times the current investment amount. The market's declining enthusiasm for the production of traditional fossil energy has further aggravated the current shortage of crude oil.
column editor: Gu Wanquan Text editor: Dong Siyun Source of title picture: Tuchong Creative Picture editor: Yong Kai
source: Author: CCTV Finance
