On June 30, 2022, the term of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte will expire. At the age of 77, he will leave the presidential throne and return to civilian life.
He has been in power for 6 years. He has influenced the political ecology of Philippines and found a direction for the Philippines in the process of competition between China and the United States. He has been criticized by Western public opinion for his shocking words. Why does this president have such a polarized reputation and mixed reviews from all parties?
Manila under the night, humid and hot. Well-equipped police officers are being deployed nervously to raid a suspected drug den.
Since Duterte came to power in July 2016, the Philippine police has launched a massive anti-drug operation across the country. As early as the early days of the campaign, Duterte promised voters that he would eliminate crime, drugs and corruption within 6 months after being elected.
Chen Bingxian, director of the Philippine Institute of Guangxi University for Nationalities:
"He has three slogans for his campaign, one is anti-drugs, the second is anti-corruption, and the third is anti-crime."
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Duterte was born on March 28, 1945, from A member of the Duterte family in the central Philippines, he has a bachelor's degree in political science and law.
During the anti-drug campaign, Duterte issued a policy authorizing police officers to execute rebellious drug dealers without judicial review. Almost at the same time, Duterte went astray again and allowed people to shoot drug dealers and addicts. People who kill drug-related personnel can also receive rewards.
Before Duterte launched his “war on drugs”, drugs were openly sold in the Philippines. According to data from the Drug Enforcement Administration, there are nearly 4 million drug addicts in the Philippines among a population of more than 100 million. In slums, 60% of children have been exposed to drugs, and nearly 93% of towns and villages across the country have drug crimes. The capital, Manila, is the hardest hit area for drug crimes. Drug crimes, poverty and corruption are among the three major chronic diseases in Philippine society.
The Philippines has a tradition of growing drugs during the American colonial period. To this day, about 70% of the world’s cannabis comes from the Philippines. The Philippines is located in the tropics, suitable for crop growth, and has become an important passage for South American drugs to be transported to East Asia and Europe.
So, what effect has this controversial “iron-fisted anti-drug war” achieved?
Chen Bingxian, Director of the Institute of Philippine Research at Guangxi University for Nationalities:
"According to data released by the Philippine National Police in 2021, since Duterte came to power to launch an anti-drug operation, a total of more than 200,000 anti-drug operations have been carried out. In this operation 6,600 drug-related suspects were killed, 240,000 were arrested, and more than 1.53 million suspects surrendered or surrendered. The number of drug-related suspects in the Philippines dropped from 4 million to 1.6 million, and the overall social atmosphere in the Philippines also showed obvious changes. Change. ”
As the anti-drug campaign continues to expand, Duterte has also been vigorously criticized by domestic political opponents and Western society. Among them, the United States and other Western countries have publicly demanded that Duterte abide by human rights and the rule of law and stop killing drug traffickers.
In response, Duterte countered: "The era of Western colonization of the Philippines has passed." To everyone's surprise, less than three months after Duterte came to power, conflicts between the Philippines and the United States became public over the anti-drug issue.
Duterte said that as an ally of the Philippines, the United States not only did not support the Philippines in its anti-drug struggle, but also made fierce criticism internationally. U.S. leaders should learn to respect other countries and not arbitrarily accuse the Philippines of human rights issues.
In September 2016, Duterte was invited to attend the East Asia Summit in Vientiane, the capital of , and met with US President Obama who attended the meeting.Before leaving, a reporter from asked Duterte how he would explain to the United States the controversy over the Philippines' anti-drug campaign. Duterte, who has a fiery personality, could no longer bear it and expressed his strong dissatisfaction.
Sun Xihui, associate researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
"At that time, the Secretary of State and members of the Obama administration repeatedly criticized the Philippines and Duterte, which made Duterte very angry. He personally said that Obama was ' son of bitch', it is very rare for a country leader to use such language to insult the leader of another country, no matter what the reason is."
If you say solemn. The drug operation caused discord between Duterte and Obama, and Duterte’s counterattack led to the expanding rift between the Philippines and the United States.
Sun Xihui, associate researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
" The Obama administration basically stopped arms sales to the Philippines at the end of its administration . Arms sales and military aid are actually important sources of military equipment and military expenditures for the Philippines. . This caused them to lack ammunition and guns in anti-drug operations and anti-terrorism operations. In this case, Duterte took the initiative to purchase military equipment and requested military assistance from the Philippines at that time. Russia has purchased a large number of light weapons, and China has also provided some weapons and supplies. ”
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At the beginning of Duterte’s taking office, the relationship between the Philippines and the United States quickly became alienated. At the same time, the relationship between the Philippines and China was quickly repaired.
Duterte once said: "I want to say a few words to the Chinese people. To tell the truth, The Philippines' only economic hope is China . Other countries, to be honest, I don't count on them."
Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Sun Xihui, associate researcher at the Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy Institute:
" After Duterte came to power, China has gradually become the Philippines' largest economic partner, surpassing the United States in terms of investment, trade and sources of foreign tourists. These practices reflect The Duterte government is adjusting its relations with China and the United States, hoping to adjust its one-sided relationship with the United States to a relatively balanced foreign policy between China and the United States as soon as possible. "
Return to "pro-American diplomacy." "Balanced diplomacy", China and the Philippines still have conflicts to face.
Chen Bingxian, Director of the Philippine Institute of Guangxi University for Nationalities:
" The South China Sea dispute is an unavoidable hurdle between China and the Philippines. It can be said to be a stumbling block to the development of Sino-Philippine relations. The Aquino administration pursues a policy on the South China Sea issue. This tough policy toward China also caters to the strategic needs of the United States to use the South China Sea issue as a starting point to contain China. In fact, it plays the role of a "pawn" for the United States to contain China through the South China Sea issue. "
Starting in 2012. , the conflict between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea has continued to escalate. In April 2012, the Philippine military attempted to arrest Chinese fishermen near the Scarborough Shoal lagoon, which triggered a fierce confrontation with a Chinese maritime surveillance ship. In June, China announced the establishment of the "Sansha City" to manage the South China Sea Islands. A year later, the two sides expanded their conflicts due to the "supply" incident at Second Thomas Shoal. What caused the rapid deterioration of relations between the Philippines and China was Aquino III's order to submit the South China Sea issue to the so-called "international arbitration."
Different from Aquino III's attitude, As early as during the election, Duterte said that he did not accept the "one-sided" policy of the United States system. If elected as president, he would be willing to put aside the disputes in the South China Sea with China and conduct negotiations. contact and carry out economic cooperation.
On June 30, 2016, Duterte took office as President of the Philippines. Chinese President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message conveying his willingness to improve China-Philippines relations.Previously, Duterte also met with the Chinese Ambassador to the Philippines and expressed the importance he attached to China. However, during his inauguration ceremony, he did not mention the South China Sea issue at all.
Sun Xihui, associate researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
"He did not use the arbitration results to put pressure on China and avoid military conflicts, frictions or confrontations with China over the South China Sea issue. Moreover, US officials and military officials at the time Senior officials have repeatedly stated that the security coverage of the US-Philippines alliance mainly covers the Philippine mainland, which means that it does not include some disputed islands and reefs. Duterte is very sober and wise on this issue. He. We have made it clear many times that we cannot have a conflict or war with China because we cannot afford it. "
The Philippines has a weak economic foundation. Improving relations with China will not only cool down the South China Sea issue, but also seize " The opportunities of “One Belt and One Road” will be leveraged on the strength of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to develop the Philippine economy. In May 2017, Duterte attended the “Belt and Road” International Cooperation Summit Forum.
Dai Fan, Director of the Center for Philippine Studies at Jinan University:
"After Duterte came to power, he launched the Build, Build, Build plan in 2017 to vigorously develop the Philippines' infrastructure. And his infrastructure design is in line with China's The Belt and Road Initiative has been implemented. During his six years in office, the Chinese and Philippine governments have cooperated in 16 projects, and there are currently more than ten projects in progress. The above are the political legacy left by Duterte to the Philippine people. . "
With the development of China relations, the United States is not only unable to use so-called "arbitration" to sow China relations, but it is also unable to use the Philippines' military bases to carry out "freedom of navigation operations" in the South China Sea.
Chen Bingxian, Director of the Institute of Philippine Research at Guangxi University for Nationalities:
"Duterte is a very typical nationalist. In his own words, he is neither pro-China nor pro-American, he is only pro-Philippines, I hope to maximize the national interests of the Philippines. This is the most correct choice, and this is the choice that best suits the national interests of the Philippines.”
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In 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic spread across the world, and vaccines became an important strategic resource. At that time, the hoarding behavior of developed countries directly resulted in many low- and middle-income countries being unable to buy vaccines at all, and the Philippines also suffered greatly.
On December 26, 2020, Duterte publicly shouted to US President Trump at the epidemic prevention meeting that day, asking the United States to exchange 20 million doses of vaccines for the United States and the Philippines to sign the "Visit of Forces Agreement." Previously, the agreement had to be suspended due to tensions between the Philippines and the United States. In the meeting on the same day, Duterte revealed that the Philippine military had begun to receive vaccines from China.
Dai Fan, Director of the Center for Philippine Studies at Jinan University:
" Duterte praised China in his last State of the Union address for being the first country to help the Philippines fight the COVID-19 epidemic. He owed China a favor. , he said, 'For me , especially for us Visayans (the most populous ethnic group in the Philippines), we know how to be grateful to China'"
On March 29, 2021, the first batch of new crown vaccines purchased by the Philippine government from China arrived in Manila. Yarmour Air Force Base. Not only did Duterte personally greet him at the scene, he also received a Chinese vaccine a few months later.
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At the same time, the International Criminal Court ICC announced that it has begun an investigation into " crimes against humanity" that Duterte may have committed. Faced with the fierce accusations, Duterte actually chose to "withdraw from the group" and announced that the Philippines would withdraw from the International Criminal Court. Duterte, who comes from Mindanao , has a completely different character from the traditional Manila political elite. He acted recklessly and eclectically, and his political methods were decisive and delicate.
When Duterte came of age, he inherited his father's legacy and was elected mayor of Davao City. At that time, Davao City was the famous "murder capital" of the Philippines. In this city with a population of only about 1 million, official corruption, drug crimes, and homicides occur one after another.
Chen Bingxian, director of the Philippines Institute at Guangxi University for Nationalities:
"He is using thunderous means to rectify local security issues . For example, he implements a very strict late-night curfew and brings a fleet of heavily armed police cars throughout the city every night. Patrol.”
Duterte’s iron-fist policy on crime has transformed Davao City in just a few years. But in the eyes of opponents, Duterte is not suitable to be the head of state. They believe that he lacks the most basic economic and defense policies. Supporters believe that he is the best candidate to change Manila's political scene.
During his term as president, Duterte has always maintained high popularity and support. Although he often speaks indiscriminately, behaves rudely, and dresses casually, in the minds of many people at the bottom, these have become manifestations of being close to the people, which is completely different from the superior politicians and political families.
Sun Xihui, associate researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
“Duterte’s emphasis on social fairness and order is actually a challenge to the traditional elite political model in the Philippines. He has fully guided and utilized the Philippines’ Populism combines strongman politics with populism, thereby establishing a cross-class, cross-gender and cross-regional supporter group ”
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The Philippines has a long tradition of family politics, with more than 100 political families standing in every corner of the Philippines. Island, they firmly control all levels of government in the Philippines from the central to the local governments. These families have gradually been divided into pro-American elite families and local forces.
Unlike the former president's Aquino family which is completely pro-American, the political forces in the Philippines represented by Duterte have shown strong anti-colonial characteristics from the beginning, which has also led to the traditional pro-American forces. Attack him.
According to the Philippine Constitution, the presidential term is 6 years and cannot be re-elected. This means that Duterte’s long-term plan for the Philippines also needs to be realized by his successor. Fortunately, Marcos Jr., who took over as president, is an important ally of Duterte.
Zhang Xuegang, deputy director of the Institute of South Asia, Southeast Asia and Oceania at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations:
"Duterte and Marcos should be said to have been friends for many years, and they are also political friends who cherish each other. Many of their political ideas are similar. For example, they all advocated strengthening economic construction, and also advocated strengthening friendly cooperation with China and promoting the further deepening of the "Belt and Road" cooperation. In fact, in 2016, Duterte ran for president at the time. The vice president’s running mate is Marcos Jr. ”
Observers generally believe that Duterte is the biggest winner in the 2022 Philippine presidential election. Not only is his ally elected president, but his daughter also takes over as vice president. In the coming years, Malacañang Palace will bring unlimited imagination. Duterte’s political legacy will continue.
Sun Xihui, associate researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific and Global Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences:
" The Marcos administration is likely to continue to maintain the balanced diplomacy between major powers implemented between China and the United States. In 2016, Duterte took over a Philippine government that was completely aligned with the United States. Now Marcos is taking over a government that is relatively more relaxed in terms of foreign policy, especially in terms of policies toward China and the United States. A state with greater control space. Therefore, he has better conditions to implement a more refined foreign policy of balancing major powers. "
The new president will take office, and Duterte's days in Malacañang Palace have entered the final countdown. He is quite controversial, he is extremely willful, and as the president with the highest public support rate in the Philippines in the past 40 years, he has also given the succession The author left an important political legacy. Among them are his emphasis on the economy and people's livelihood, the development path he chose for the Philippines, and his improvement of relations between the Philippines and China.
Producer: Song Yang
Director. :Xia Sha
Editor: Wang Jinjie
