In the past two days, a large number of tropical cloud clusters have emerged in the low latitudes of the western Pacific, showing strong signs of activity. By the morning of September 6, three typhoon embryos were dancing on the ocean east of the South China Sea - Philippines . One was an unnamed typhoon embryo in the South China Sea, and the other was tropical depression 18W near the Philippine Islands and Guam. Tropical disturbance 94W in the ocean near .
Due to the strong and enlarged subtropical high pressure this year, it once occupied the space for the development of typhoons. These three typhoon embryos all appeared during the weakening period of the current subtropical high pressure and were born in the trade wind trough on the south side of the subtropical high pressure. The characteristics of the easterly wave Obviously, coupled with the high sea temperature of the warm pool, the two typhoon embryos east of the Philippines have developed significantly - especially the tropical depression 18W near the Philippine Islands, which once developed violently and appeared to have developed a typhoon eye structure on satellite cloud images.
Therefore, the Japan Meteorological Agency officially announced this afternoon that the tropical depression east of the Philippines has developed into Typhoon Conson, the 13th this year. At the same time, today the U.S. Joint Typhoon Warning Center believes that the embryonic typhoon 94W near Guam has also developed into a tropical depression, and there are signs of further development and intensification. Therefore, after the birth of Typhoon No. 13 Kangson, Typhoon No. 14 Chandu may also be about to form. .
Judging from satellite cloud images, whether it is the newly generated Typhoon Kangson or the developing Typhoon 94W, the characteristics of easterly waves make their circulation smaller, their core areas quite small, and their sensitivity to environmental changes high. For example, before it was named, Typhoon Conson once developed an eye, which may have approached the intensity of a severe tropical storm at that time. This is because a small circulation system has the potential to rapidly explode and intensify under high sea temperature conditions. The same is true for Typhoon Embryonic 94W. Small circulations require less energy to start and develop, and are more likely to explode rapidly in a short period of time in areas with high sea temperatures.
From the current point of view, although the subtropical high pressure is in a weakening period, its power is actually relatively strong. Therefore, whether it is Typhoon No. 13 Kangson or Typhoon Embryo 94W, both will gradually approach our country. But whether it will land in my country is actually still subject to large variables - the current fluctuations in the East Asian westerly belt have brought about adjustments to the shape of the subtropical high, causing the subtropical high to enter a weakening cycle. However, from the prediction point of view, the blocking high in the Far East of Northeast Asia will have According to the development trend, the strong cold vortex in Siberia and the Mongolian Plateau will weaken rapidly. As a result, the subtropical high pressure will strengthen again. During this process, Typhoon Embryonic 94W will be steadily guided to the offshore east of Taiwan, my country. When it is offshore east of Taiwan, it coincides with a series of adjustments of the subtropical high pressure and the westerly belt , resulting in the main guiding force of Typhoon Embryonic 94W in the later period being very uncertain. A slight deviation can lead to very different results.
This high degree of uncertainty is shown in the supercomputer ensemble forecast. In the ensemble forecast, the path of the future typhoon embryo 94W is relatively stable and unified before it approaches the east of Taiwan, but it changes after it reaches the east of Taiwan. Beginning to become "the goddess scatters flowers", a closer look actually divides it into three trends - some are heading north from the East China Sea, some are landing in Taiwan and Fujian, and some are heading further south across the Bashi Strait towards eastern Guangdong Southern Fujian.
In contrast, the path of Typhoon Conson No. 13 is relatively clear. Both the supercomputer and the Central Meteorological Observatory currently believe that its greatest possibility is to pass through the Philippine Islands and enter the South my country Sea, gradually approaching Hainan, Guangdong. The trend of quasi-my country and South China is relatively clear.
However, because Typhoon No. 13 Kangson and Typhoon 94W are relatively close, only about 1,000 kilometers apart, vorticity has adhesion, so the Fujiwara effect between the two typhoons cannot be ignored, that is, the two typhoons will affect each other. path, causing the paths of the two typhoons to deviate. Therefore, the dual typhoon situation is about to emerge, and the future path is actually quite complicated. Both Guangdong, Hainan, Fujian, Taiwan, and Zhejiang should start paying close attention to understand its trends in a timely manner and be fully prepared.
