Financial News Agency, October 16, as thermal coal futures prices continue to rise, yesterday, the CCB Esheng Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange Energy and Chemical Futures ETF, the performance leader of equity funds during the year, once again hit a record high with a closing increase of 3.39%. , the price on the market "broke 2" for the first time, and the net value on the market increased by 102.21% annually, becoming another ETF fund that has doubled after the previous coal ETF. The net value of the units disclosed after the market closed showed that the net value of the fund's re-righted units during the year has also increased by 98.02%, and it is only one step away from doubling. When
’s previously leading active equity funds fell into a correction, the Energy and Chemical ETF’s net value increased by 42.86% in one and a half months from September 1st to the present, widening the gap with the second-placed equity fund in the market. Nearly 9%.
Thermal coal futures prices continue to gap up
In yesterday's A-share market, coal concept stocks that had previously fallen into a correction strengthened again. Haohua Energy and Pingmei Co., Ltd. hit their daily limit. Yanzhou Coal and Shanxi Coking Coal rose by more than 7%. Previously, The coal ETF, which fell into a wide range of fluctuations, also led the ETF market with a closing increase of over 4.26%.
The price rise caused by the "coal shortage" is still the main reason for the rise of coal stocks. In terms of commodities , ZC201, the main contract of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange thermal coal futures, once again hit the daily limit, and opened higher in the night and rose by another 6.42%, exceeding 1,700 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1,774 yuan/ton, the increase since September has reached 101.1%.
Although it has broken through 8 integer marks in a row during the month, in the short term, it may be too early to say that thermal coal futures prices are "topped".
As of the close of last night, the front-month contract ZC111 of thermal coal for delivery next month rose 10.61% to close at 2226.4 yuan/ton. Compared with the latest quotation of around 2300 yuan/ton for thermal coal spot, there is still room, and the main force The contract price of 1,700 yuan/ton, even with the gradual release of production capacity, the relatively large discount rate of and will still provide support for the futures price in the short term.
Source: Business News
Source: Flush
Under the sharp rise, is the cyclical logic of thermal coal still valid for futures prices?
As the futures variety with the largest market value of the contract held by the energy and chemical ETF , the continued rise in the price of thermal coal futures is the most direct reason for its continued surge, but at the same time, other futures contracts held by the ETF cannot be ignored. The recent trends in the other three component futures varieties included in the Yisheng Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange Energy and Chemical Index A, the underlying index of the
Energy and Chemical ETF, have diverged.
The futures price of methanol has increased significantly before. However, due to the impact of power restrictions and production cuts, the supply side is still limited. Although the demand side saw a sharp decline in olefin production in September, the inventory increase is not significant. Yide Futures believes that the market is overheated but the inflection point has not yet been reached. arrive.
Glass futures prices are closely related to real estate demand. In addition, due to the winter environmental protection and production restriction requirements, China Merchants Futures has a wait-and-see attitude towards the market outlook.
PTA, affected by the continued rise in cost-end crude oil, is driven by a strong trend. Tianfeng Futures pointed out that if Brent oil continues to rise, PTA prices can be further bullish.
Energy and chemical ETF position futures contract performance as of October 15th night trading
From a cyclical perspective, usually the peak electricity consumption in winter is the peak season for thermal coal, and futures prices tend to be at a certain period from November to January of the following year. There is an uptrend. However, due to the astonishing increase driven by insufficient supply this year, thermal coal futures prices have already significantly deviated from the normal fluctuation range. Considering the subsequent increase in production and supply and other control measures, and the peak season under cyclical logic is approaching, will it still be able to provide support to futures prices? That remains to be seen.
Monthly market trend of thermal coal futures prices over the years
Is it expected to become the annual equity “champion”?
Overall, this year’s changes in thermal coal futures prices have directly put energy and chemical ETFs on the map. Since the beginning of 2021, the fund’s on-market circulation share has surged by more than 150%, and this increase basically came from mid-September. Less than a month has passed since the end of the year - basically synchronized with the accelerated upward trend of the net value of fund and .
Energy and chemical ETFs’ intra-year market price trend and exchange rate change rate
It is precisely because of the over 40% increase in the net value of fund units from September 1 to the present that energy and chemical ETFs have been in the annual competition for equity funds. Leading the way, surpassing Cui Chenlong, Han Guangzhe and other new star fund managers this year, not to mention "top players" such as , Zhang Kun and Liu Yanchun who performed poorly during the year.
As a commodity ETF fund whose investment scope is bulk commodity futures contracts, if CCB Esheng Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange Energy and Chemical Futures ETF can take advantage of the unprecedented surge in thermal coal futures this round to lead equity funds until the end of the year, it will also become The first commodity futures ETF annual "champion" in the history of China's public funds.
Of course, it may be too early to predict the annual equity fund champion at this time. Zhao Yi’s case of exceeding 20% in two weeks in December last year is still vivid in his mind. Thermal coal prices may also gradually return to rationality with the implementation of various measures. After the overshoot, there may be a sharp correction in energy and chemical ETFs. Investment Investors need to be extra cautious.
