[Military sub-plane] Author: Lele
html On the evening of May 19, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a briefing on its special military operations in Ukraine that day, saying that on the 19th, 771 more militants arrived from Mariupo. The underground fortifications of the Azov Steel Plant surrendered. Adding the number of people who had surrendered in the previous two days, the total number has reached 1,730, and they are mainly members of the blocked "Azov" battalion non-military organization. It should be said that on the first day of the agreement between the two parties, only 265 Ukrainians surrendered, so the current number of 1,730 still surprises the outside world. More importantly, with the surrender of the main force of militants in the Azov Steel Plant, the Russian army has fully taken control of Mariupol , indicating that the siege that began on March 11 has finally come to an end. A series of subsequent impacts have just begun.
▲Related reports from domestic media
First of all, it is easy to see that the cessation of fighting in Mariupol means that the land channel between the Crimean Peninsula and the Donbass region has been opened. After the Russian Navy's tank landing ship transporting supplies was sunk, and the cruiser "Moscow" was attacked and sunk, this is undoubtedly excellent news for the Russian army. In addition, when the Russian army was forcibly crossing the Northern Donets River, it was attacked by long-range firepower from the Ukrainian army and lost more than 70 armored vehicles. be compensated to some extent. More importantly, the trapped Ukrainian armed forces surrendered without running out of ammunition and food, which had a devastating impact on the upper echelons of the Ukrainian military and the confidence of other countries in assisting Ukraine.
▲The sinking of the cruiser "Moscow" was a heavy loss
At the beginning of the special military operation, the Russian army resolutely marched towards Mariupol, and then cut off its connection with the rear, becoming a completely isolated city. However, in the subsequent siege battles, the Ukrainian army's resistance exceeded the Russian army's imagination. In the end, the Russian army was unable to conquer the city for a long time, making the Mariupol battle the focus of Ukrainian media propaganda. In the end, after dozens of days of repetition, Mariupol has become to some extent a symbol of Ukraine's resistance to the Russian army. It is also a model for Ukraine to show its strength to Western countries to prove that all the assistance it receives can be fruitful. In fact, in the propaganda of the Western media, the Battle of Mariupol has been given a lot of symbolic meaning, and is regarded as the key to the change of the war situation like the famous battles of Thermopylae, Stalingrad, etc., but in the end " The massive surrender of the Azov battalion changed everything.
▲The militants of the "Azov" battalion who surrendered in large numbers
After the two sides formally reached an agreement on May 17, Ukraine used very unique words to describe the substantive surrender of the "Azov" battalion. I just don’t want to affect the outside world’s confidence in the Ukrainian army, but this is actually impossible. War is a very cruel field. Victory is victory and defeat is defeat. As much glory as Ukraine gave Mariupol’s resistance in propaganda, it was humiliated when it surrendered. This cannot be achieved through a few language skills. reality that can be changed. More importantly, on the vast battlefield outside Mariupol, there was also a scene that the Ukrainian army did not want to see.
▲A convoy of buses transporting surrendered militants from the "Azov" battalion
Since the exchange of fire between the two sides, both sides have lost a large amount of weapons and equipment. Among them, although the Ukrainian military industry has certain production and manufacturing capabilities, most of them are concentrated in the Northern Donets River To the east, especially the area near Kharkov , under the attack of the Russian army, it is no longer possible to mass produce. Therefore, the supply of weapons and equipment to the Ukrainian army has now become mainly supported by European and American countries. On the surface, these countries have provided a lot of support to Ukraine, and the amount is considerable, but the problem should not be viewed superficially.The weapons previously received by Ukraine were composed of NATO-standard light equipment, such as "Javelin" and "Stinger", and heavy equipment left over from the Soviet Union, such as T-72 main battle tank and S-300PMU long-range air defense system, which are used by the Ukrainian army There is no difficulty at all.
▲ Ukraine has received a large amount of Western aid
However, with the rapid consumption of Soviet legacy technical equipment, Ukraine has also begun to receive typical NATO standard heavy equipment such as the US-made M-777 howitzer. Although the United States and Ukraine both claim that the Ukrainian artillery force The corresponding training was quickly completed so that the M-777 could exert its combat effectiveness, but this was obviously not something that could be truly achieved on a large scale. The better the performance of modern heavy equipment, the higher the requirements for operation and training levels. The M-777's excellent design and ability to use precision-guided artillery shells to destroy targets 60 kilometers away are indeed extraordinary. But it is impossible to expect the Ukrainian army, which has been trained for less than a month, to do this on a large scale. More importantly, the United States has not provided the Ukrainian army with heavy-duty helicopters to ensure the rapid transfer of the M-777, so that it can actually only be used as an ordinary towed artillery. Now there have been cases of Russian drones being used on the battlefield. Examples found and destroyed. The various mysterious legends surrounding M-777 can only be described as average after being separated from the advanced combat system of the U.S. military.
▲The moment the American M-777 was destroyed
In addition, as the war continues, the Ukrainian army will inevitably need to develop main battle tanks, military aircraft, etc., and other more critical and complex military equipment. Not only will the difficulty of operation further increase, but also Funding sources are also a big issue. Let’s take the M-777 as an example. Just 72 sets of M-777 artillery plus matching ammunition and accessories cost about US$800 million in aid. How long can the massive US$40 billion military aid last under such circumstances? And once it is exhausted, how to continue to develop is also a big problem. Moreover, although the Russian army on the opposite side also lost a lot of equipment, it has complete military production capabilities. Nowadays, the competition between the two sides has stabilized, including the increase in the use of various types of drones, and the arrival of various classic and old equipment on the battlefield. In fact, these are typical gestures of accumulating strength. The competition is about who of the two sides can truly adapt to the changing situation. Whether the Ukrainian army, which has always relied on external assistance, can do this is still unknown.
▲The consumption of Ukrainian tank troops is a big problem
In domestic public opinion, Mariupol has always been in the posture of "imminently captured". Therefore, when the militants in the Azov Steel Plant finally announced their surrender, the country actually did not Not too surprised, but for Western public opinion, which had always had high expectations for the Mariupol garrison, this was actually not acceptable. The ensuing doubts about the combat effectiveness of the Ukrainian army and the direct impact on military assistance also caused heavy damage to the Ukrainian army. This was the Battle of Mariupol, known as the biggest failure of the Ukrainian army since the war began. direct cause. With the current war situation at a stalemate and both sides doing their best, this is out-and-out bad news for the Ukrainian army. Therefore, perhaps the Battle of Mariupol will truly become a turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian war situation in the future. But it may not be the direction predicted by Western media.
