I divide the liquor stocks in 2019 into several series: 1. Defensive liquor stocks: Kweichow Moutai and Yanghe shares. 2. Defensive + offensive liquor stocks: Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu 3. Liquor stocks with low risk and high returns.

I divided the liquor stocks in 2019 into several series:

1, defensive liquor stocks: Kweichow Moutai, Yanghe shares.

2, defensive + offensive liquor stocks: Wuliangye , Luzhou Laojiao , Gujing Gongjiu

3, liquor stocks with low risk and high returns: Jiugui Liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu , etc. [Liquors will be added later. For example, in the next article, I will probably write about Sheshe Liquor Industry】

4, a liquor stock that I don’t care about.

Shanxi Fenjiu in 2019, I define as a liquor stock with low risk and high return.

Shanxi Fenjiu owns three well-known Chinese trademarks: "Fenjiu", "Zhuyeqing" and "Xinghuacun"; in terms of historical status, Fenjiu is absolutely unrivaled. Moutai, Wuliangye , etc. all became popular after the founding of new China.

Fenjiu was recorded in the Twenty-Four Histories more than a thousand years ago. It is recorded in the "Book of Northern Qi" that Emperor Wucheng of the Northern Qi Dynasty wrote to Xiaoyu, King of Kangshu in Henan, from Jinyang in Zhizhong: "I drank two cups of Fenqing. I advise you to drink two cups in Ye."

Many people have never drank Zhuyeqing wine, but they must have heard that in many martial arts novels, heroes drink Zhuyeqing.

During the Tang Dynasty, the poet Du Mu wrote a poem: "It rains heavily during the Qingming Festival, and pedestrians on the road want to die. May I ask where the restaurant is? The shepherd boy points to Xinghua Village." Xinghuacun wine is already a famous wine.

The three major brands of Fenjiu, Zhuyeqing and Xinghuacun are all under the name of Shanxi Fenjiu , and Shanxi Fenjiu ranked ninth in the liquor industry in 2017. Alas, I am sad for Fenjiu. I will drink a big drink myself. .

If the Fenjiu mentioned above is ancient and historical, then let me talk about Fenjiu after the founding of New China. At the banquet table of the First National Political Consultative Conference before the founding ceremony in September 1949, Mao specially ordered the apricots from Shanxi Huacun brought Fenjiu, making Fenjiu the first state banquet wine in New China.

Mao’s favorite liquor was Fenjiu.

New China has selected national famous wines five times, and Fenjiu has been on the list all five times. There are only three wine companies that have been on the list five times, one is Fenjiu, the other is Luzhou Laojiao , and the third is Maotai.

In addition, Fenjiu, the leader in the liquor industry, has been in the industry for many years, and there is a big gap between it and the second-largest company in the industry. In 1987, Fenjiu Factory achieved profits and taxes of 88.3058 million yuan, while during the same period, Moutai Factory achieved profits and taxes of 13.91 million yuan, and Wuliangye22.088 million yuan.

On June 29, 1987, Xinhua News Agency reported that Xinghuacun Fenjiu has the four highest rankings in the country: “First, the annual export volume is the largest, which is equal to the total export volume of other famous wines in the country; second, the famous wine rate is the highest, reaching 99.97%, and every year in the country Among the kilograms of famous wines is half a kilogram from Xinghuacun Fen Distillery; thirdly, it has the lowest cost, high quality and low price; fourthly, it has won the most awards."

Speaking of winning awards, in addition to the five national famous wines selected by New China, Fenjiu also won the first-class gold medal at the 1915 Panama International Exposition.

The first listed liquor company with A shares was Fenjiu. In January 1994, Shanxi Fenjiu was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and was the first listed liquor company.

has such a great history, the company has developed well, and it was the first wine company to go public. How come its industry status has declined since then.

There are many historical reasons: for example, the production of Luzhou-flavor liquor has increased. Luzhou Laojiao has provided technical support to many Luzhou-flavor liquor companies, and Luzhou-flavor liquor has become the mainstream of liquor. Even today, Maotai-flavor liquor is the industry leader, but strong-flavor liquor still accounts for about 70% of the entire liquor market.

There is also a problem with Fenjiu’s own development and positioning. Even today, I still feel that Fenjiu’s products are messy.

was shot again while walking, and was implicated. At that time, Shanxi Fenjiu was very famous and sold well all over the country. It was noticed by Shanxi people who were interested in making fake wine. In 1998, the Shanxi fake wine case broke out and drank it. 27 people died and 222 people were poisoned by fake alcohol.

6 criminals who made counterfeit wine were sentenced to death. This case shocked the whole country and had a great negative impact on Shanxi Fenjiu .

In 1997, Shanxi Fenjiu had revenue of 451 million yuan and a net profit of 51.6978 million yuan.

In 1998, Shanxi Fenjiu had a revenue of 250 million yuan and a net profit of 5.05 million yuan. The net profit fell by 90% year-on-year. It was not until 2004 that it returned to the net profit of 1997.

The above is the history of Shanxi Fenjiu .

Let’s talk about Shanxi Fen now. Shanxi Fenjiu now has a market value of 41 billion, a stock price of 47.35 yuan, revenue in 2017 of 6.037 billion, and a net profit of 944 million. The company disclosed that the net profit in 2018 was 1.416 billion-1.51 billion, a year-on-year increase of 50 %-60%, this growth rate is amazing. I saw some people questioning the single-quarter net profit in the fourth quarter, saying that its growth rate had slowed down. This is to find fault, without looking at history or data.

Shanxi Fenjiu ’s net profit in the third quarter of 2018 was 1.264 billion, and the full year was 1.416 billion-1.51 billion. The single-quarter net profit in the fourth quarter was 152 million-246 million, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%-76.97% in the single-quarter net profit in the fourth quarter of 2017. [The single-quarter net profit in the fourth quarter of 2017 was 139 million]. If the single-quarter net profit in the fourth quarter is the previous value of 152 million, an increase of 9.3%, I don’t think there is a problem with the growth rate. Take a look at the annual results of Shanxi Fenjiu Fourth quarter single quarter performance, the single quarter net profit of the fourth quarter of 2017 was 139 million, a year-on-year decline of 9.99%, while the net profit of Shanxi Fenjiu increased by 56% in 2017; in 2016, the net profit of Shanxi Fenjiu increased by 56%. RMB 154 million in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.89%; single-quarter net profit fell in both 2016 and the fourth quarter of 2017.

In the fourth quarter of 2018, the single-quarter net growth was 9.3%-76.97%, which is not bad. This situation of

is related to the company's shipments. The company's performance was mainly in the first quarter. The net profit in the first quarter of 2018 was 710 million, which was almost half of the whole year of 2018. Net profit in the first quarter of 2017 was 468 million, accounting for 49.54% of the net profit for the whole year of 2017, which was almost half of the whole year.

In 2018, Shanxi Fenjiu did two major things, both of which were beneficial to the long-term development of Fenjiu:

First, it introduced strategic investor China Resources . China Resources spent 5.16 billion yuan to buy Shanxi Fenjiu 99,154,500 shares. , the cost price per share is 52.04 yuan. The current stock price of Fenjiu is 47.35 yuan, and there is not much left to be trapped. If there is another daily limit, China Resources will be able to get out of the trap. At the end of October 2018, China Resources was badly trapped, and Fenjiu's stock price fell to 30.39 yuan at that time. Of course, China Resources invested in Fenjiu at a price of 52.04 yuan because it was optimistic about the long-term development of Fenjiu and would not care about the temporary rise or fall of the stock price.

Second, Shanxi Fenjiu launched an equity incentive plan, with 397 incentive targets, 6.5 million shares granted, and an exercise price of 19.28 yuan. The current stock price of Shanxi Fenjiu is 47.35 yuan [When the equity incentive plan was launched, the stock price was 39 yuan], the price difference is so big that even Fenjiu executives can’t do it unless they work hard.

performance assessment requirements: The return on net assets is not less than 22%. Based on the performance in 2017, the revenue growth rate in 2019 is not less than 90%. The company's revenue in 2017 was 6.037 billion yuan, which means that in 2019 Revenue must be 11.47 billion+, the revenue requirement in 2020 is 13.28 billion+, and the revenue requirement in 2021 is 15.09 billion+.

If Shanxi Fenjiu revenue exceeds 11.47 billion in 2019, according to the current relationship between revenue and profit, then the net profit in 2019 should exceed 2 billion.

The revenue requirement in 2020 exceeds 13.28 billion, then the net profit should exceed 2.39 billion 100 million.

I personally think that Shanxi Fenjiu 's revenue target can be achieved. First, the strategic participation of China Resources can bring opportunities to Shanxi Fenjiu 's out-of-province market. In 2017, Shanxi Fenjiu 's out-of-province revenue accounted for 50% of the company's total revenue. 40.28%, and Fenjiu is undoubtedly a national brand. It is reasonable for non-provincial revenue to account for 80% of total revenue, which is also the goal of Fenjiu people.

Second, the money brought to executives by performance completion is very attractive. Executives work hard for the reason.

In addition, Shanxi Fenjiu Group's liquor assets may be incorporated into listed companies. If so, the brand value of Fenjiu will be greatly improved, and the messy business relationships can also be cleaned up.

As of today, the share price of Shanxi Fenjiu has increased by 35.09%. The short-term increase is very large, but I think the current price is not overvalued. For a high-growth consumer stock, a price-to-earnings ratio of 25 times is within a reasonable range. I expect the net profit in 2019 The profit has reached 2 billion. Then Shanxi Fenjiu has a market value target of 50 billion yuan in 2019, corresponding to a stock price of 57 yuan. If Fenjiu rises to 57 yuan, China Resources will also make money, and China Resources' cost price will be 52 yuan.

Shanxi Fenjiu has such a good history, culture and brand value. As long as the management works hard, there will be a lot of room for growth in the future.

So I define Shanxi Fenjiu in 2019 as a liquor stock with low risk and high return. It is not as robust as Maotai Wuliangye Yanghe. But because its stock price fell sharply in 2018, the risk in 2019 is very small. Once a brand breaks through and captures the national market, the returns will be very high.

I want to invest in Shanxi Fenjiu investors, also because of Fenjiu’s historical culture and brand value, and its future growth space.

reminded me of this rating [I divide the liquor stocks in 2019 into several series:

1, defensive liquor stocks: Kweichow Moutai, Yanghe Shares.

2, defensive + offensive liquor stocks: Wuliangye , Luzhou Laojiao , Gujing Gongjiu

3, liquor stocks with low risk and high returns: Jiugui Liquor, Shanxi Fenjiu , etc.

4, liquors that I don’t care about share. 】

is the rating in 2019. In 2020, the rating of individual stocks will be changed based on the stock price trend and performance changes in 2019.

The above personal opinions cannot be used as a basis for buying or selling stocks.