Looking at history Sino-US relations - Inferring the role of the United States in the Taiwan Strait issue from its historical performance. First of all, we are clear that in order to maintain its dominance in the world, the United States has done everything it can in the past century and will use all means to cause trouble to any country that can pose a certain threat to its status as the leader. What they want to achieve is to maximize their interests, maintain their absolute economic status and absolute voice in the world, maintain their hegemonic status, and do not allow a second powerful country to stand alongside them.
1. What did the United States do in history? In 1904, when Tsarist Russia built the Siberian Railway, expanded in the Northeast, and strengthened its sphere of influence in the Far East , the United States did not hesitate to finance the Japanese military power at very low interest rates, and used Japan's hands to combat Russia's expansion in the Far East.
In 1917, the United States declared war on Germany. At that time, Colonel Edward House, the US diplomatic adviser, once said: The national interests and national security of the United States absolutely cannot bear the dominance of such a powerful nation in Europe. The United States intervened midway and used very cruel methods to attack Germany with force. There was only one reason: Germany was not allowed to be too powerful in Europe.
In 1940, the United States gave three loans to the Kuomintang government, prohibited the export of Japanese steel and some weapons-making materials, and imposed an embargo on weapons, equipment, and oil , including later providing China with weapons and ammunition, 100 aircraft, and recruiting and dispatching volunteers. This was not because they sympathized with the weak people invaded by Japan, but because Japan was too powerful at that time. They did this just to curb Japan's power in Asia. The United States does not allow Japan to become too powerful.
Similarly, they intervened in the European battlefield because they did not allow Hitler to dominate the European continent. They believe that this would be a nightmare for the United States. This is also true of the policy towards the Soviet Union in the Cold War period. When they saw the Soviet Union's continuous expansion after the Cold War and the Soviet Union's rapid increase in influence in Europe, the United States began a plan to return to Europe and penetrate into Europe in the form of economic assistance. Then the Berlin crisis occurred in the Soviet Union, and they established NATO in Europe.
The reason why China established diplomatic relations with China was because the Soviet Union was too powerful and had the strength to compete with it. At that time, China and the Soviet Union were at odds with each other. In order to have another chess piece to check and balance the Soviet Union in Asia, they weighed the pros and cons and chose to establish diplomatic relations with China.
To sum up, throughout history, whether it was the attack on Germany or Japan, or the assistance to China during the Anti-Japanese War period, it was nothing more than a political strategy, a means to maintain its hegemony. What they need is that only the United States can be strong on this earth. If other countries threaten his core interests, they will take action decisively.
2. What has the United States done to China today? The rise of China is definitely not what the United States wants to see. Since China's reform and opening up, China's rapid economic development and military rise have made them feel uneasy. They worry that China will one day catch up with or even surpass the United States. Therefore, a China "threat theory" has emerged in the United States.
They have conducted high-intensity confrontation with China in the past ten years. The conflict in the South China Sea in 2016, as well as the trade war in recent years, including instigating neighboring countries to engage in military friction against China from time to time, are all precursors of "sharpening the knife to the cattle and sheep".
The only two countries that can compete with the United States today are China and Russia. This is one of the reasons why they regard China as a thorn in their side. Taiwan has always been a pawn used by the United States to check and balance China. When China's rise is not enough to pose a threat to him, he can use Taiwan as a bargaining chip to conduct many unequal trade exchanges with China, thereby obtaining maximum economic benefits. However, the speed of China's rise has made it feel threatened. It will curb China's development and block China's progress at all costs.Today, China's dream of becoming a powerful country makes the United States feel on pins and needles. They will never allow China to develop at its current speed. Therefore, it is their true nature to try every means to cause trouble and cause destruction.
In August this year, Speaker of the House of Representatives Pelosi visited Taiwan and openly challenged the one-China principle. In addition to openly tearing up its commitments in the original joint communiqué and giving up its pretense of so-called "maintaining peace across the Taiwan Strait," the United States has also continued to militarily support Taiwan independence activists, "handing them knives" and "guns."
3. If China chooses to use force to unify Taiwan, what role will the United States play?
1. Increase arms sales to Taiwan. During the Trump period, he proposed to "support the normalization of arms sales to Taiwan to help Taiwan improve its self-defense capabilities" to open a window for increasing arms sales. At that time, they will desperately provide Taiwan independence militants with continuously upgraded weapons to compete with the mainland's People's Liberation Army. The pace of "passing the knife" will be even greater.
2, military aid to Taiwan. Regarding arms sales to Taiwan, the United States is not yet able to sell offensive weapons to Taiwan unscrupulously. However, the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act recently passed by the U.S. House of Representatives authorizes the Biden administration to provide a total of US$10 billion in military assistance to Taiwan and plans to transfer excess U.S. military defense supplies to Taiwan. Among them, special mention was made of improving the U.S. military's ability to quickly reinforce Taiwan in the event of a conflict across the Taiwan Strait; and promoting the establishment of a joint military exercise plan between the U.S. and Taiwan authorities. This is a naked declaration that the United States will intervene in the war across the Taiwan Strait with actual actions, just like the United States provided weapons to Ukraine. If China takes military measures to regain Taiwan, the United States will definitely step in to help Taiwan and militarily coerce the mainland. Taiwan may become a place for China and the United States to test the power of modern weapons.
3. Internationally, there will definitely be a group of European minions who will impose economic sanctions on China and force China to decouple from the world. Just as it does with Russia today, it will do everything possible to search and seize China's overseas assets, including the treasury bonds China purchased in the United States.
Once the war starts, the United States will definitely tear off its face, seize the opportunity, come in to disrupt the situation, and use the war in the Taiwan Strait to consume China's strength. They will try their best to prolong the war as much as possible, thereby consuming China's manpower, material and financial resources, and achieve their most desired goal, which is to set China's economy back by 10 years, or even decades. Only in this way can they avoid serious worries and can rest easy.
In the end, if mainland China adopts the method of military reunification, the degree of American participation will be determined by the desires of the hegemon and the strength of the righteous. If China wants to rise, it will eventually overthrow its hegemony.
