1. Those who are careless and lose Jingzhou
Those who do not plan for the whole world are not worth planning for a while; those who do not plan for the overall situation are not worth planning for a domain! This is a famous saying in our history.
Zhuge Liang in "Romance of the Three Kingdoms" asked Guan Yu before leaving Jingzhou and preparing to enter Sichuan: "What should I do if Cao Cao leads his troops?"
Guan Yu replied: Reject it with his strength. "Kong Ming also said, "If Cao Cao and Sun Quan rise up, what if they do? "Yunchang said, "Split the troops and resisted them." "
Zhuge Liang suddenly became overwhelmed and had to warn Guan Yu earnestly: If you want to do this, then Jingzhou will be in danger. I will give you eight words, "Reject Cao Cao from the north and treat Sun Quan from the east". In fact, these eight words by Zhuge Liang are "planning the overall situation".
Although Guan Yu agreed very well, what in the end? What humiliated Sun Quan as "How can a tiger girl marry a dog son?" "One-sword meeting" directly regarded the heroes of Jiangdong as "waste". Therefore, Guan Yu finally lost Jingzhou.
Although people are used to saying that Guan Yu was "losing Jingzhou" by "carelessness". But in fact, Guan Yu didn't know what "planning the overall situation" from beginning to end, which led to the inevitable loss of his "Jingzhou region".
uses history as a mirror to know the rise and fall of the present. This is also the case in the current world.
2. Set off a "red wave"
United States The reason why this year's midterm elections have attracted the attention of the world is actually a manifestation of "planning the overall situation". At least today's hot areas, such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, must pay close attention. Once the US midterm elections and Trump's Republican Party wins, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict may change.
Republican McCarthy said before the midterm elections: If the Republican Party can gain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, then the party will stop or limit aid to Ukraine.
Republican McCarthy said before the midterm elections: If the Republican Party can gain control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, then the party will stop or limit aid to Ukraine.
When these words are said, can Russia and Ukraine not pay close attention to it? If Ukraine loses US aid, it will not be able to fight at all, which is almost recognized.
Similarly, why did Scholz insist on breaking the resistance to visit China before the midterm election? There are also considerations in this regard. Whether it is Germany or Europe, it is a bit chewed by the United States.
2: If the Republican Party led by Trump wins the midterm elections , is it back to the "America First" when Trump was president? If this is true, Germany and Europe are no longer the strength they were two years ago, so we have to make an advance arrangement.
This is the same as the Three Kingdoms period: no one is isolated, it is a linkage effect. No one can survive alone.
The reason why the US midterm elections attracted the attention of the world is that many people's judgments, as Trump proposed, will "set a red wave" in the midterm elections. That is, the Communist Party of China The party will crush Biden's Democratic Party in the midterm elections.
Trump himself firmly believes in this. After all, Biden's ultra-low approval rating is the best evidence. But what is wrong, when some statistics of the midterm elections were released, Trump was disappointed.
3. Is it a historical necessity to lose Jingzhou by carelessly?
Republicans won 207 seats in the House of Representatives, democracy There are 187 parties. The Republicans won 49 seats in the Senate, while the Democrats actually had 48 seats. The Republicans are currently only leading by a slight advantage. What makes Trump even more puzzled is that the Republicans have lost the position of governor in two states.
Why did the "red wave" that Trump expected has not appeared? Was it a careless loss of Jingzhou, or is it a historical necessity?
First look at the reflections within the Republican Party: in the face of a disappointed situation, there is a conclusion within them. That is, they believe that Trump and the Republican Party have built too much momentum before. It's too optimistic. Although various polls have confirmed that the probability of "a red wave" is extremely high. But it is ignored that these polling agencies are in the hands of the Democratic Party.
therefore made many Republican supporters think that they can win with their eyes closed, so they gave up voting support. Therefore, the turnout rate is low. On the other hand, the Democratic Party has an extremely high turnout rate. The reason why the reflection on
This is because it is very similar to "losing Jingzhou by carelessness."First, he was paralyzed by various previous signs of weakness, and then he said that he was "crossing the river in white". To put it bluntly, just like Guan Yu threw himself into Jingzhou, he was first fooled by others, and then he was hit by someone with a stick.
As for this reason? The author cannot know! But it can give a reference answer from history - this is the result of reference to previous midterm elections in the United States.
The midterm elections in 2018 were when Republican Trump became president .
In the Senate campaign, the Republicans defeated the Democrats 54:41.
In the House of Representatives campaign, the Democrats defeated the Republican Party 230:205.
Trump lost the House of Representatives!
The midterm elections in 2014 were then Obama of the Democratic Party and was re-elected as president.
This time, the Republican Party won two houses in one fell swoop, making Obama the "lame duck" president.
The midterm elections in 2010 were in full swing.
Democrats lost the House of Representatives and only won the Senate!
The midterm elections in 2006 were re-elected as president at the time.
Both houses were taken down by the Democratic Party, and Bush Jr. was happy to be the president of "lame duck".
The midterm elections in 2002, when Bush Jr. became president.
The media uses the word "big victory" to describe Bush Jr. and the Republican Party, and wins the two houses with an overwhelming advantage!
List the data first, let’s analyze it:
First: Obama and Bush Jr. have both been "lame duck" presidents, and they were both in their second term after successful re-election.
Second: Obama and Trump both lost a "certain house" during their respective presidency.
The only exception is Bush Jr. in 2002, but if you look deeper, there is a factor in the "911 Incident" in 2001 - it is a "east wind" with a special period.
From data analysis, Trump expects the red wave, which is a bit unrealistic. The reason why the whole world is disturbed is that it borrows the "east wind" of the "Russia-Ukraine conflict".
Reference In 2002, Bush Jr. was able to win a big victory with the "911", but Biden failed to win the two houses with the "Russia-Ukraine conflict" this year. This has actually proved in the opposite direction that the contradictions and entanglements of the United States today, so neither side can unify the world...
