Since the reform and opening up, the national fiscal deficit has gradually expanded. From a hierarchical perspective, the central government first experienced deficits and then surpluses. The period from 1978 to 1993 was a period of deficits. After the reform of the tax-sharing s

Since the reform and opening up , the national fiscal deficit has gradually expanded. The overall trend is: it has stably exceeded 10 billion yuan since 1988, it has stably exceeded 100 billion yuan since 1999, and it has stably exceeded one trillion yuan since 2013.

From a grading perspective, the central government first experienced deficits and then surpluses. The period from 1978 to 1993 was a period of deficits. After the reform of the tax-sharing system in 1994, it entered a stable period of surpluses. The overall surplus in recent years has hovered around 5.3 trillion.

The performance of local finance is exactly the opposite of that of the central finance. There was a surplus first and then a deficit. Among them, the period from 1978 to 1985 was a surplus period. After 1986, it entered a deficit period as a whole. After the tax-sharing system reform in 1994, the deficit increased year by year. In recent years, the deficit has basically remained above 10 trillion.

So far, the year with the highest national fiscal deficit is 2020, with a deficit reaching 6.28 trillion yuan; the year with the largest central fiscal surplus is 2021, with a surplus of 5.64 trillion yuan; The year with the highest local fiscal deficit is 2020, with a deficit reaching 11.04 trillion yuan.

There are only a few days left in 2022. What will be the fiscal deficit situation for the whole year? Judging from the situation from January to November, the national fiscal deficit was 4.17 trillion yuan, of which the central fiscal surplus was 5.43 trillion yuan and the local fiscal deficit was 9.6 trillion yuan.

At the same time, judging from the situation in the past two years, in December 2020 and 2021, the average national fiscal deficit was 2.27 trillion yuan, and the average local fiscal deficit was 2.16 trillion yuan. Based on this calculation, the national fiscal deficit will be 6.44 trillion yuan in 2022, and the local fiscal deficit will be around 11.76 trillion yuan.

For the sake of safety, if some unknown factors are deducted, the national fiscal deficit is expected to be close to or exceed the level of 2020 in 2022, and the local fiscal deficit will exceed the level of 2020, both of which are likely to hit record highs.