Reporter Zhang Ying
This week, most global stock markets rose, and US stock , Hong Kong stock and A-share market all showed rebounds to varying degrees. It is worth noting that northbound funds have poured into the A-share market, and this week, the net purchase of exceeded 26.5 billion yuan. During the volatile rebound, industry insiders generally believe that A shares is expected to further recover, and the "warm winter market" will continue.
Industrial Securities said that with the easing of internal and external risks, the market is expected to recover further. At present, various " stable growth " policies are being implemented at an accelerated pace and are expected to support the economy. External risks are also weakening, and foreign capital is returning significantly. Judging from the valuation and equity risk premium , the current market is still at the bottom of high cost performance. Structurally, we will continue to focus on the restoration opportunities of large consumption + state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in the short term.
Zhongtai Securities analyzed that the "warm winter market" will continue, but it should be noted that investors who have not increased their holdings in at the bottom and during the adjustment should not blindly chase highs. In terms of style, the second stage of maintaining the "warm winter market" will be based on the low-valuation Shanghai Stock Exchange 50; in terms of configuration, investors based on the first quarter can pay attention to the high- dividend sector such as electricity.
Zheshang Securities believes that the market's money-making effect has appeared since November. As December begins, as policies continue to exert force, the market is expected. In terms of structure, emerging industries focus on advanced manufacturing, while traditional industries focus on dilemma reverses . For advanced manufacturing, we focus on the low penetration rate of fields in sectors such as strengthening and supplementing chains, energy revolution, and smart economy. For traditional industries, we pay attention to the restoration opportunities of travel chains and real estate chains.
CICC said that the structural characteristics of the market have been quite obvious recently, and the characteristics of scattered hot spots and rapid rotation have not improved. During the current performance vacuum period, active subject matter will become the main feature of the market. On the specific main line, the current direction of stabilizing growth, recovery, potential policy support, and marginal improvement expectations of performance can still be the focus of attention.
This week's market review
1, stock market
A-share market: This week (November 28-December 2, the same below), A-shares have shown a volatile upward trend, and the three major stock indexes have risen across the board. Shanghai Composite Index cumulative weekly increase of 1.76%, at 3156.14 points; the Shenzhen Component Index has a cumulative weekly increase of 2.89%, at 11219.79 points; the ChiNext Index has a cumulative weekly increase of 3.2%, at 2383.32 points.
In terms of funds, on Friday, the net purchase amount of northbound funds reached 4.094 billion yuan, achieving net purchases for four consecutive trading days. This week, the cumulative net purchase amount of northbound funds reached 26.507 billion yuan. Judging from the top ten active stocks, this week, 5 stocks including Wuliangye , CATL , Mindray Medical , Longi Green Energy, BYD , and the net purchase amount of northbound funds exceeded 1 billion yuan. In addition, the net selling amount of Enjie shares, Poly Development , Tongwei shares and other stocks all exceeded 200 million yuan by northbound funds.
table: Trading status of the top ten active stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect this week (November 28-December 2):
Tabulation: Zhang Ying
From the perspective of Shenwan first-level industries, 30 industries achieved increases this week, among which, the social service industry gained , reaching 8.49%, followed by industry indexes such as food and beverage (7.87%), beauty care (6.43%), and trade and retail (6.27%), all had cumulative weekly increases of more than 6%. In addition, only the coal industry index fell, with a weekly decline of 0.44%.
At the same time, statistics show that next week (December 5-December 9), a total of 74 companies have a total of 1.413 billion restricted shares have been lifted one after another. According to the latest closing price, the market value of the lifted market is 41.461 billion yuan. Judging from the market value of the lifting of the ban, the amount of the lifting of the ban by North Huachuang , China Merchants Jiyu, Bairen Medical and other companies all exceeded 5 billion yuan.
table: Next week (December 5-December 9) companies with the amount of lifting bans exceeding 1 billion yuan
tabulation: Zhang Ying
According to the issuance arrangement, 8 new stocks will be issued next week (December 5-December 9), 2 will be issued on Monday: Air China Oceanwide and Fengli Intelligent; 4 will be issued on Tuesday: Feng'an Co., Ltd., CommScope Chemical, Xingyuan Zhuo Magnesium, and Huaxin Environmental Protection; 2 will be issued on Wednesday: Chunguang Pharmaceutical Package and Yandongwei.In addition, according to the current arrangement, four new stocks will be listed in the first place next week. Weigang Technology will be listed on December 5; Leit Technology will be listed on December 6; Chenguang Medical and Qiule Seed Industry will be listed on December 7.
table: next week (December 5-December 9) 8 new stocks are issued:
Tabulation: Zhang Ying
Hong Kong stock market:
Hong Kong stocks fluctuated on Friday, Hang Seng Index closed down 0.33% at 18675.35 points, Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.03%, and Hang Seng State-owned Enterprise Index fell 0.25%. This week, Hong Kong stocks rebounded sharply, with the Hang Seng Index cumulative weekly increase of 6.27%; the technology index cumulative weekly increase of 10.81%; and the state-owned enterprise index cumulative weekly increase of 6.66%.
China-Thailand International pointed out that Hong Kong stocks are obviously in a strong expectation and weak reality pattern. Recently, China's 10-year bond interest rate has risen sharply to nearly 2.9%, reflecting that investors have strong recovery expectations. As the index rebounds significantly, the game between long and short on high-stage platforms will become more intense, and the market conditions are expected to continue to rise. investment strategy should focus on individual stocks and light on indexes.
Overseas market:
On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.1% to 34429.88 points, the S&P 500 index fell 0.12% to 4071.7 points, and the Nasdaq fell 0.18% to 11461.5 points. This week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.24%, the S&P 500 rose 1.13%, and the Nasdaq rose 2.09%. This is also the first time that the three major indexes have seen -week consecutive rises since October this year. It is worth noting that the Chinese stocks listed in , and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rose 5.39%, with a cumulative increase of more than 22% this week, the largest single-week increase since mid-March.
On Friday, most European stocks closed down, and most rose this week; German DAX index rose 0.27%, down 0.08% this week; French CAC40 index fell 0.17%, up 0.44% this week; FTSE 100 index fell 0.03%, up 0.93% this week.
On Friday, major Asian and Pacific stock indexes closed lower across the board, with the South Korean comprehensive index falling 1.84%, Nikkei 225 index falling 1.59%, Australian S&P 200 index falling 0.72%, and New Zealand NZX50 index falling 0.11%.
2, bond market
This week, Treasury bond futures fell. This week, T2303 fell by 0.14 yuan, TF2303 fell by 0.11 yuan, and TF2303 fell by 0.11 yuan, and Treasury bond futures are more resistant to declines than current bonds. Industrial Securities said T2303 fell only on Monday and Tuesday. From the perspective of pattern, futures bonds seem to show the characteristics of "double bottoms", and around 99.2 yuan may be the key support level of T2303. In terms of position volume, shorts continued to attack on Monday and Tuesday, with bulls resisting in the negative corner, and shorts took profit and left the market on Thursday, leading to a decline in position volume. Judging from the trading holdings ratio, Tuesday was the high point of market trading sentiment.
This week (November 28-December 2) Central Bank open market has a total of 23 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, and the central bank conducted a total of 317 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations in the open market, with a net injection of 294 billion yuan this week. Next week (December 5 to December 9), 317 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will expire in the open market. This week, commercial banks issued a total of 307.01 billion yuan of interbank certificates of deposit, with an issuance volume of 283.42 billion yuan (last week was 590.43 billion yuan).
3, Foreign Exchange
Onshore RMB closed at 7.0380 against the US dollar at 16:30, up 411 basis points from the previous trading day and cumulatively rose 1,235 basis points this week. The RMB mid-price against the US dollar was 7.0542, up 683 basis points, and the cumulative increase of 797 basis points this week.
4, Commodity
On Friday, international precious metal futures closed mixed, COMEX gold futures fell 0.21% to $1,811.4/oz, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.25% to $23.355/oz. This week, COMEX gold futures rose 3.27%, and COMEX silver futures rose 8.98%.
On Friday, international oil prices fell across the board, and the contract of US oil in January next year fell 1.08% to US$80.34 per barrel. Brent Oil's contract fell 1.27% in February next year to $85.78 per barrel. This week, the contract for U.S. oil in January next year rose 5.32%, and the contract for U.S. oil in February next year rose 2.47%.
This week, LME copper rose 5.79%, LME zinc rose 6.39%, LME nickel rose 10.76%, LME aluminum rose 8.19%, LME tin rose 6.02%, and LME lead rose 4.53%.
(edited by Sun Qian)
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