Financial News on October 25th The domestic futures market closed, and most commodity futures closed down, coking coal fell nearly 4%, glass fell more than 3%, methanol , starch, bean 2, and soda ash fell more than 2%. Shanghai silver rose by more than 2%, while Shanghai nickel, palm oil , and stainless steel rose by more than 1%.
Everbright Futures : Both supply and demand weak suppress coking coal prices, and the market may continue the current weak pattern in the future
On Monday, important macroeconomic data were released in China. The downward pressure on the economy led to a decline in market sentiment, lack of confidence suppressed the black trend, coking coal supply and demand weakened, spot quotations loosened, and short-term fluctuations were treated weakly. The spot auction price fell, and the rate of failure of to increased. On Monday, the online auction of Xinzhou low-sulfur gas raw coal was 1,330 yuan/ton, a tax-inclusive price of 26 yuan/ton from the previous period, and an additional 15,000 tons failed. The auction of Jinzhong low-sulfur main coke was 2,470 yuan/ton, a tax-inclusive price of 58 yuan/ton from the previous period, and the average auction of 1,820 yuan/ton from the Luliang Lishi high-sulfur lean coke coal was 1,820 yuan/ton. On the macro side, the real estate data in September were weak, suppressing the black market again, with the year-on-year decline in completion and land purchases expanding again, and the year-on-year decline in real estate investment, sales, new construction and construction narrowing, but it still maintained a large decline. The current black trading logic is concentrated in the switching of off-peak seasons, the performance of terminal real estate data is weak, and the weak supply and demand suppress coking coal prices, and the current weak pattern may continue in the future market.
CICC Futures : Ferroalloy will face the risk of excess in the future supply, and the price will continue to run weakly
Steel profit is insufficient, the risk of the industrial chain entering the negative feedback stage is very high, and the risk of ferroalloy decline in the future demand. However, the mine hot furnace that was suspended in the early stage gradually resumed production, and the supply of ferroalloy continued to rebound, and the supply will face the risk of excess in the future. Steel mills will continue their low inventory strategy in the next more than a month, and there will be no obvious restocking phenomenon before December. Upstream production will still face high inventory pressure after resuming production, and silicon manganese is particularly serious. Taking into account comprehensively, the price of ferroalloy will continue to operate weakly, and the risk of ferrosilicon test 7500-7600 yuan/ton increased, and the risk of silicon manganese test 6800 yuan/ton increased in July lows.
Mysteel Agricultural Products Network: Policy regulation frequently increases the price of pigs falling
At present, with the continuous increase in policy regulation, the effect has gradually become obvious, and pig prices have stopped rising and falling. In the past two days, some large breeding enterprises have continuously increased their output, and the difficulties of slaughtering enterprises in collecting pigs have been alleviated, which can be said to be a direct benefit. However, this move is also an indirect benefit to the breeding end. According to Mysteel agricultural product monitoring, the national three-yuan live pig price has continued to fall since last Friday (policies were issued on Wednesday and Thursday). Some areas have been reduced by about 0.6 yuan/kg. Affected by this, retail investors' enthusiasm for slaughtering has increased. In particular, the supply of large and heavy pigs with secondary fattening has increased significantly, which can also be reflected in the narrowing of the price difference between standard fertilizers. The breeding side stated that the slaughter of large breeding enterprises has increased, curbing the price increase too fast and too high, and "forced" retail investors and secondary fattening pig sources to slaughter. In the current context of lucrative profits, the breeding side will not only make steady profits but also avoid concentrated slaughter in the later stage, causing "stampage" and reducing the risk of price decline in the future market, which is more beneficial than disadvantages. In the long run, prices will fall and the market speculation mentality will weaken, reducing the possibility of excessive price decline due to the surge in supply in the later stage, and also conducive to the normal recovery of production capacity. There is still room for profit on the breeding side in the first half of next year.
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