(report producer/analyst: Western Securities Yang Jingmei )
Company was established in 2008 and is the leader of PERC photovoltaic laser equipment, with a market share of more than 80% (according to the company's official website).
At the same time, the company has expanded its layout to TOPCon, HJT, XBC battery laser equipment and laser transfer equipment. The future performance is expected to continue to increase rapidly and the strong will continue to be strong.
Company's products have covered five major fields of downstream PERC, XBC, TOPCon, HJT and perovskite batteries, and laser transfer technology injects new growth momentum.
(1) PERC: Covering SE laser doping equipment and laser ablation equipment (market share exceeds 80%).
(2) XBC: laser grooved equipment (according to Dier's announcement, orders for Longi and Aixu have been obtained, with a market share of nearly 100%);
(3) TOP Con: laser boron expansion equipment (pilot line has been verified successfully), special slurry grooved equipment (pilot line has been delivered).
(4) HJT: LIA laser repair equipment (it was successfully delivered to European customers at the end of 2020, and European customers place orders in the second half of 22).
(5) Perovskite battery: P1, P2, P3, P4 laser etching equipment (the head perovskite manufacturer order has been obtained).
(6) Laser transfer: can be used in PERC, TOPCon, HJT, XBC batteries. The first device was delivered in September 22.
Operating income maintains rapid growth.
(1) 2016-2021: In 2021, the company achieved operating income of 1.251 billion yuan, an increase of 17.21% year-on-year, and CAGR=59.27% in the past six years; and achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 381 million yuan, an increase of 2.11% year-on-year, and CAGR=52.75%.
(2) 2022H1: achieved operating income of 665 million yuan, an increase of 10.75% year-on-year; 2022H1 achieved net profit attributable to shareholders of 216 million yuan, an increase of 21.43% year-on-year.
The main reason for the rapid improvement of the company's performance in recent years is that the photovoltaic industry has basically achieved parity in the domestic and foreign markets of the domestic and foreign markets, the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry has improved, and the demand for photovoltaics has exploded. The company's customers are all leading companies in the photovoltaic industry, with the installation volume of downstream battery modules growing rapidly, and the demand for photovoltaic equipment is strong.
Company revenue structure: photovoltaic laser equipment is the company's core business, accounting for 94% of the revenue. From 2018 to 2021, the company's photovoltaic laser equipment revenue remained above 90%, and CAGR=47%.
Company continues to focus on the laser equipment business and the photovoltaic industry. As the photovoltaic prosperity improves, the company is expected to continue to benefit.
The company has excellent profitability and gross profit margin is at the leading level in the industry.
Benefiting from the company's high market share and high level of equipment customization. In 2022H1, the company's gross profit margin was 46.75%, and the net profit margin was 32.47%, which made the profitability significantly higher than that of listed companies in the same industry.
The main reasons for the decline in the company's gross profit margin since 2018: Due to the gradual increase in PERC product maturity and the rapid increase in customer orders, the company adjusted the equipment price.
We believe that with the breakthrough in N-type battery technology and the demand for equipment iteration in the future, the value of laser equipment is expected to increase. At the same time, the company's laser equipment will further increase, and its profitability will stabilize and rebound.
deeply binds Longi Green Energy, with abundant orders in hand. According to the company's announcement, the company received 674 million yuan in orders for Longi equipment, of which 602 million yuan is the new order since 2022. It is expected that HPBC laser trough orders will be the main ones, and there will be plenty of orders in hand.
scale effect is gradually highlighted, and the three-cost control results are significant. The company's management expense rate, sales expense rate and financial expense rate continue to decline. The company's sales expense ratio, management expense ratio and financial expense ratio were 2.83%/3.07%/-2.10% respectively, and -0.06/+0.31/+0.55 pct year-on-year. The company's three-fee fee rate remains below 5%, and its cost control ability is strong.
Company attaches great importance to R&D, and R&D investment has grown steadily.2021 R&D expenses were RMB 104 million, an increase of 83.74% over the same period last year. In 2022, H1 R&D expenses were RMB 58 million, an increase of 23.38% year-on-year, accounting for 8.79% of revenue.
company continues to increase R&D investment, enhance its technological innovation capabilities, conduct corresponding laser technology research on N-type battery processes such as XBC, TOPCon, HJT, etc., and at the same time extend to laser transfer technology, further expanding the company's technical reserves. As of the end of 2021, the company and its subsidiaries had a total of 166 domestic and foreign patents.
The company's equity structure is stable, and the chairman Dr. Li Zhigang is the actual controller of the company. Dr. Li Zhigang is the founder and actual controller of the company. He directly holds 41.09% of the company's shares. At the same time, he indirectly holds 2.24% of the company's shares through Wuhan Suneng, and holds a total of 43.33% of the company's shares. The equity is relatively concentrated and the structure is stable.
The actual controller of the company has a deep technical background and many management talents emerge. Dr. Li Zhigang, the actual controller of
, graduated from the Department of Physics and Electronics of Huazhong University of Science and Technology. He is the fourth batch of national "Ten Thousand Talents Plan", "Science and Technology Innovation and Entrepreneurship Talents" of the Ministry of Science and Technology, Hubei Province "
implement equity incentives to bind core talents. In November 2020, launched an equity incentive plan for management and technical employees, deeply binding core employees. It is planned to grant 1.176 million restricted shares to 92 company executives and core technical personnel, with a grant price of RMB 89.82 per share. The company sets higher-level assessment goals to demonstrate long-term development confidence.
In the era of "carbon neutrality", global photovoltaic installation demand is booming. Many countries around the world have proposed climate goals of " zero carbon " or "carbon neutrality". It has become a global consensus to develop renewable energy represented by photovoltaics. In addition, photovoltaic power generation has become the most competitive form of power supply in more and more countries. It is expected that the global photovoltaic market will continue to grow rapidly.
According to Chinapower data, the global photovoltaic new installed capacity exceeded 175GW in 2021, setting a record high. In the future, driven by favorable factors such as the continued decline in photovoltaic power generation costs and global green recovery, the new global photovoltaic installed capacity will continue to grow rapidly.
Driven by the " carbon neutrality " goals, clean energy transformation and green recovery in many countries, it is expected that the global photovoltaic average annual installed capacity will exceed 315GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period.
The general trend of the dual carbon target is to be determined, and the medium- and long-term growth trend of the photovoltaic industry is determined.
By 2030, my country plans to account for about 25% of primary energy consumption. It is expected that the global average annual photovoltaic installed capacity will exceed 315GW during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, and China's average annual photovoltaic installed capacity will exceed 108GW. The photovoltaic industry will become a high-certainty growth track in the next 10 years.
P battery is close to the efficiency limit, and N-type battery has obvious advantages. The raw material of P-type battery is P-type silicon wafer, and the raw material of N-type battery is N-type silicon wafer. The current mainstream P-type single crystal battery technology is PERC battery technology, which has a simple manufacturing process and low cost.
As P-type batteries gradually approach their conversion efficiency limit (ultimate efficiency 24.5%), N-type will become the development direction of the next generation of battery technology. N-type batteries have the advantages of high conversion efficiency, high double-sided rate, low temperature coefficient, and longer service life of carrier . The main N-type routes include TOPCon, IBC, HJT, etc.
N-type battery technology route will be clear next year, and TOPCon, IBC and HJT are expected to develop in parallel.
The core issue in choosing battery technology route lies in the balance of efficiency and cost. According to CPIA statistics, for every 1% increase in battery efficiency, the cost can be reduced by 5%-7%. Therefore, improving conversion efficiency is one of the important ways to reduce costs.
In the N-type battery technology route, the three N-type battery technologies can achieve mass production efficiency of more than 24%. From the perspective of efficiency improvement potential, IBC batteries can be combined with TOPCon and HJT battery technologies respectively, and upgraded to TBC and HBC batteries with higher conversion efficiency. They can be combined with perovskites as base batteries to prepare stacked batteries, breaking through 30% conversion efficiency.
The three battery technology routes have their own characteristics of process complexity and compatibility, and there is a high probability that competition will coexist in the next few years.
(1) TOPCon Battery: The process has about 12 channels, and can be compatible with the PERC battery production line, but this technical process is relatively long, and the yield problem still needs to be further improved.
(2) HJT Battery: 4-6 processes, which are significantly reduced from TOPCon, and have huge potential for efficiency improvement. However, the investment amount of equipment is expensive and is completely incompatible with traditional PERC production lines. It is necessary to further optimize the production line equipment and improve economics.
(3) IBC Battery: has the highest efficiency technical path at present, but the technology is relatively difficult, the process is complex, and the equipment investment is relatively expensive. Technical problems still need to be further solved.
1. TOPCon Battery: is compatible with PERC production line. Currently, the conversion efficiency exceeds 25%, and the upper limit of conversion efficiency is close to 29%, far exceeding the limit of PERC (24.5%).
TOPCon (tunneled oxide layer passivation contact) battery uses N-type silicon material as the substrate, boron diffusion forms an emitter, an ultra-thin oxide layer and doped polycrystalline silicon layer passivation layer are used on the back, and a double-sided wire mesh forms a metal electrode. One of the advantages of
TOPCon is that its theoretical conversion rate upper limit can reach 28.7%, which is close to 29% of the crystalline silicon limit. TOPCon batteries have high compatibility with PERC production lines, and the new investment cost is low (the single GW increases by 50-70 million yuan).
From the perspective of production process steps, TOPCon has good compatibility with the existing PERC production lines, and the process flow of existing P-type battery equipment is retained and utilized to the maximum extent. According to Solarzoom reports, adding boron diffusion equipment, thin film deposition equipment, etc. to the PERC production line can be upgraded to the TOPCon production line. The investment amount of new equipment is only 50 million to 70 million yuan/GW. Therefore, transforming PERC into TOPCon is an optimal choice for extending the application cycle of the equipment.
2. HJT battery: Simple process, clear cost reduction path, may become the next mainstream
crystal silicon heterojunction solar cell (HJT) is a deposited amorphous silicon thin film on crystal silicon, which combines the advantages of crystal silicon batteries and thin film batteries. It has significant advantages such as high conversion efficiency, low process temperature, high stability, low attenuation rate, and double-sided power generation. At the same time, the equipment used in the HJT process is incompatible with PERC, and brand new equipment is required.
In addition, the HJT battery production process has been greatly simplified, mainly four steps: cleaning and velvet making, amorphous silicon thin film deposition, TCO preparation, and electrode preparation. However, PERC battery preparation usually requires 9-10 processes, so the production yield of HJT batteries is relatively high (only 4 processes are required), with great mass production advantages, and is considered to be the most long-term development space for N-type battery technology route.
3. IBC battery: The conversion efficiency is the highest, the process flow is complex
IBC battery (Interdigitatedbackcontact, finger-like cross-back contact battery) is characterized by moving the positive and negative pole metal contact and PN junction to the back of the battery cell. There is no gate line occlusion on the front of the battery, which can achieve full absorption of light, thereby reducing light loss; the back adopts an optimized metal gate line electrode, which reduces series resistance. Therefore, IBC batteries have the highest conversion rate, beautiful appearance and good business prospects. However, its technology is difficult, the process is complicated, and it is incompatible with the existing production lines.
IBC battery can be combined with TOPCon or HJT production lines to break through higher mass production efficiency.With the decline in equipment costs and the maturity of the process, IBC can combine other battery technologies to develop new batteries with higher efficiency:
1) superimposed on high-quality passivation contact structures, and combined with TOPCon and HJT technologies respectively to form TBC and HBC batteries;
2) as base batteries to prepare stacked batteries and PSCIBC stacked batteries.
In addition, the surface of IBC batteries is pure black and beautiful, and is more suitable for use in the booming BIPV market, electronic consumer market, military industry market and aerospace aviation market than other solar cell .
2.3.1. PERC battery terminal: laser ablation and SE laser doping have become essential production line configuration
PERC ablation process is the basic process of PERC technology, which can effectively improve the conversion efficiency by about 1.2%.
PERC High-efficiency solar cells are used to increase passivation layer on the back of the battery to prevent the recombination behavior of carriers in some high-combination areas (such as the contact between the battery surface and the metal electrode), reducing electrical losses. At the same time, they can enhance light reflection on the lower surface of the battery and reduce light losses, thereby improving the battery's conversion efficiency by 1.2%.
In PERC technology, the back electrode can achieve high-precision local contact with micro-nano-level through the passivation layer. Only the specially made laser and optical path control, combined with long-term accumulated process experience, can the best battery performance be obtained.
SE Laser doping can improve battery conversion efficiency by 0.3%-0.5%.
SE The battery is doped with high concentration phosphorus doping at the contact area of the crystalline silicon solar cell electrode gate line and silicon wafer , and low concentration shallow doping in the areas outside the electrode. This structure can reduce the recombination of minus number of emitter surface, and a good ohmic contact can be formed between the metal electrode and the emitter, thereby obtaining higher short circuit current, open circuit voltage and filling factor, and improving battery conversion efficiency.
SE Laser doping has the characteristics of simple efficiency improvement, simple process flow, low investment cost and compact equipment, and has gradually become the mainstream selective emitter preparation method in the industry.
2.3.2. TOPCon battery terminal: laser boron doping improves efficiency
TOPCon battery can achieve 0.2%-0.3% efficiency improvement through laser boron doping process. Laser boron doping can help TOPCon batteries to selectively dopate the front face of borosilicate glass , realize the selective emitter SE structure, reduce the contact resistance of in the electrode area, and it is expected to improve the absolute value of the battery conversion efficiency by 0.2%-0.3% or above. The SE boron doping (laser boron doping) process of
TOPCon is more complex than PERCSE doping.
boron has lower solid solubility in silicon than phosphorus, and is more difficult to dopant, and requires higher energy when advancing. Even when laser doping is used (that is, similar to PERC's SE method), a higher power laser is required. Therefore, the laser doping equipment in the PERC battery production line cannot be compatible with the TOPCon production line, and the laser doping equipment needs to be repurchased.
We believe that laser doping is a key step in the TOPCon production process. With the increase in doping difficulty, the value of laser equipment is also expected to increase significantly. It is expected that the single GW of TOPCon boron doping equipment will exceed more than 20 million yuan.
2.3.3.3. HJT battery terminal: LIA laser repair process has the effect of improving efficiency and decay
LIA laser repair technology can improve the conversion efficiency of HJT battery. In the heterojunction battery structure, there are a large number of interface states (Si hanging bonds) on the interface of α-Si:H/c-Si. In the case of light, heating and annealing of this structure can effectively reduce the density of interface states (Si hanging bonds) and reduce interface recombination, thereby improving the passivation effect of amorphous silicon .
illuminates the HJT cell by ultra-high power laser, generating a large number of photogenerated carriers to change hydrogen valence , which can improve the conductivity of the TCO layer, reduce contact resistance, and thus improve the conversion efficiency of the battery.
laser LIA repair equipment has the effect of improving efficiency and reducing decay, and the value of a single GW device is expected to exceed 30 million yuan. LIA laser repair technology can not only improve conversion efficiency, but also reduce dark attenuation.The core of the restoration process is whether the efficiency improvement can be stabilized on the components, with the main paths including LED light injection and laser LIA equipment.
laser LIA equipment has both anti-attenuation and efficiency improvement functions, and can effectively reduce component-side attenuation. It has become an important option in the HJT light injection repair path and has an absolute advantage over traditional LED technology.
According to the Dier Laser Investor Relations Activity Record Table, its laser LIA equipment has received mass production orders, with a price of no less than 3 million yuan per equipment, and the corresponding GW of the laser LIA equipment is about 30 million yuan.
2.3.4, IBC battery end: laser groove technology is a necessary process
Laser groove technology can be applied to the film of the passivation layer on the back of IBC. In terms of laser applications of IBC batteries, laser groove technology can be applied to the film of the back passivation layer of IBC, realizing the precise ablation of the P\N passivation film layer on the back. In addition, the contact hole areas of N and P need to be aligned with their respective diffusion areas, otherwise the battery will leak and fail. Therefore, the passivation film of the contact area can be removed through laser groove to form a contact area.
laser groove technology replaces traditional IBC batteries with lithography technology, which can simplify the process flow and greatly reduce production costs. Referring to the company and Longi order announcement, it is estimated that the laser value of N-type IBC technology will be around 20-30 million/GW.
2.3.5. Laser transfer: emerging general metallization technology, which can be applied to PERC, TOPCon, XBC, HJT battery routes Laser transfer is a new general-purpose contactless metallization technology.
electrode metallization is used to prepare electrodes for solar cells, which is a necessary process for the manufacture of photovoltaic cell . Laser transfer technology uses a high-power laser beam to transfer the slurry from the flexible light-transmitting material to the battery surface to form a gate line.
laser transfer technology has significant advantages over the current mainstream screen printing technology and is expected to come from behind to become the mainstream market.
Compared with traditional screen printing, the main advantages of laser transfer are:
(1) The gate lines of laser transfer can achieve ultra-fine line width (below 18 microns), saving up to 30% of slurry;
(2) Laser transfer is a non-contact printing, which can avoid the problems of hidden cracks, fragmentation, pollution, scratches and other problems in traditional screen printing, thereby significantly reducing the battery's damage rate, improving the yield of production, and is more suitable for future thin-film and large-size silicon wafer production.
laser transfer technology is an emerging general technology of metallization, and there is broad space for industrialization in the future. Laser transfer can be used in PERC, TOPCon, HJT, and IBC batteries. Referring to the value of PERC screen printing equipment, it is estimated that the value of a single GW equipment of a laser transfer equipment will reach more than 25 million yuan.
According to the company's investor relations activity record, the company is currently the only manufacturer with a laser transfer technology reserve and has applied for laser transfer patent protection worldwide.
Core assumption:
(1) Global new photovoltaic installation volume: According to CPIA, the global new photovoltaic installation volume in 2022 is expected to reach 240GW. Assuming that the capacity ratio is 1:1.2, the global output of battery cell in 2022 will be 288GW.
(2) Penetration rate of each battery : Based on the judgment of the 4 battery technology paths life cycle , the PERC penetration rate has been declining year by year. The current process of XBC batteries is difficult. It is expected that as the technology route matures, the penetration rate will gradually increase; TOPCon takes the lead in the short term due to high compatibility. In the long run, HJT relies on greater cost reduction potential and is expected to come from behind, becoming the mainstream technology in the market, and the penetration rate will increase rapidly.
(3) Equipment value: refers to the company's order announcement equipment value as a reference. As the process technology route matures and the cost decreases, we assume that the value of PERC, TOPCon, HJT, XBC laser equipment decreases year by year.
In summary, conservatively estimated that the market space for photovoltaic laser equipment orders is expected to reach 10.6 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 62% from 2020 to 2025, and the application prospects of laser equipment are broad.
The company's stock price has experienced two upward cycles (using the stock price on May 17, 2019 and the ChiNext Index as the company's stock price and the ChiNext Index base).
(1) First cycle (2019/5/17-2020/1/17):
Industry perspective: According to Chinapower data, the global photovoltaic new installed capacity market in 2019 reached 114.5GW, an increase of 17.5% year-on-year, and the industry is relatively prosperous. Photovoltaic cell technology is accelerating towards PERC/PERC+, the conversion efficiency of photovoltaic cell is significantly improved, and the market demand for new cell types is strong.
Company's perspective: closely follows the iteration of photovoltaic cell technology, has PERC, SE, MWT and other technologies and is developing laser boron expansion technology. In 2019, the company's SE solar cell laser equipment revenue grew rapidly, driving the company to experience the first rising cycle.
(2) Second cycle (2020/6/30-to-present):
Industry perspective: 2020 is the first year of "carbon neutrality", many countries have proposed the "carbon neutrality" target, and photovoltaic installed capacity demand has exploded. According to Chinapower data, the domestic photovoltaic new installed capacity in 2020/2021 was 48.20GW/54.88GW, an increase of about 60.13%/13.86% year-on-year, and the photovoltaic industry maintains a high prosperity.
Company perspective: 's operating income in 2020/2021 was 1.072 billion yuan, respectively, up 53.19%/+17.21% year-on-year, and the company has sufficient orders in hand. Laser LIR technology, IBC process and other technologies have mass production orders.
cooperates with well-known domestic and foreign photovoltaic companies and is a world-leading supplier of laser application equipment solutions. We have been deeply rooted in many years to form a rich solution knowledge base, provide customized solutions for different customers, and gradually form the company's brand effect .
company continues to increase its R&D investment, and has successfully applied laser processing technology to high-efficiency solar cells and module technologies such as PERC, MWT, TOPCon, IBC, HJT, etc. It is one of the few companies in the industry that can provide comprehensive solutions for high-efficiency solar cell laser processing.
downstream customers cover the world's mainstream photovoltaic manufacturers: Longi Green Energy Co., Ltd. , Tongwei Co., Ltd. , Aixu Technology, Jinke Energy , Jingao Solar Energy , Trishe Solar Energy , Artes Solar Energy , Hanhua New Energy , Dongfang Risheng and other leading photovoltaic cell and module manufacturers have established close contacts, leading the creative application of photovoltaic laser technology.
The company's solar cell laser process equipment has the largest market share in the world.
According to the company's announcement, in 2021, the company's PERC laser ablation and SE doping equipment market share exceeds 80%. After years of competition, internationally renowned laser processing manufacturers such as German Rofen and American Applied Materials have gradually withdrawn from the competition in the photovoltaic field. Currently, only German 3D-micromac, Youchao Energy, Maiwei Co., Ltd. , Dajia Laser , Haimuxing and others have a small market share.
The company focuses on the development of solar cell technology, and its core technology has built the company's moat. Since its establishment, the company has provided reserves for various high-efficiency solar cell technologies including PERC, TOPCon, HJT, IBC, etc., and has extended to general laser transfer technology, continuously consolidating the technology moat in the laser field.
convertible bonds have been approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and they plan to raise 840 million yuan to increase investment in photovoltaic laser transfer and panel laser equipment.
In June 2021, the company applied to issue convertible corporate bonds to unspecified objects to obtain approval from Shenzhen Stock Exchange GEM Listing Committee.
This convertible bond is planned to be issued no more than 840 million yuan, and is intended to be used for high-efficiency solar cell laser printing technology application R&D projects, new display industry laser technology and equipment application R&D projects, and supplement working capital. It is planned to invest 331, 260 and 249 million yuan respectively.
Company has a deep reserve of laser transfer technology and is currently conducting prototype trial production and production line matching of different processes and sizes.
Company has conducted years of research and development of laser printing-related technologies, and has completed laboratory demonstration and mass production technology reserves.
The construction period of the application R&D project of high-efficiency solar cell laser printing technology to be invested in is 3 years, including the development of high-speed PTP laser printing technology and the development of solar cell laser printing production line.
Layout OLED, Mini LED and Micro LED laser equipment are expected to become the company's new growth points. In terms of display project layout, the company involves both the OLED project of the third-generation display technology that will be used on a large scale, and the Micro LED project of the most advanced fourth-generation display technology with technological changes in the next 5 to 10 years. In terms of core technology application, it keeps pace with the requirements and expectations of the new display industry in the future, with clear target customers and needs.
core technology has obtained multiple patents. During the technological development process, the company's patent layout involves special aspects such as optical systems, mechanical design, appearance, process, vision, etc., and the key technologies include "a laser repair technology based on OLED Array TFT substrate breaking or short-circuit", "a laser repair technology based on Mini LED chip defective repair technology", and "a laser stripping technology based on Micro LED".
is expected to have a construction period of 3 years for the new display industry laser technology and equipment application R&D project, and will start investment in 2021 and be completed in 2023.
As the leader in photovoltaic laser equipment, the company currently has sufficient orders for laser equipment, and is expanding its layout to TOPCon, XBC, HJT and laser transfer equipment. With the increase in orders brought about by the breakthrough in laser equipment technology of N-type battery technology, the company's performance is expected to increase rapidly.
Based on the following judgment, we expect that the company's photovoltaic laser equipment revenue will increase by 33%/54%/42% year-on-year from 2022 to 2024; accessories, maintenance and technical service fees will increase by 50%/30%/20% year-on-year.
(1) Photovoltaic laser equipment: We expect the order market size of the photovoltaic laser equipment industry from 2022 to 2024 to be 27/47/7.6 billion yuan respectively. The company is the leader in PERC photovoltaic laser equipment, with a market share of more than 80%. It also expands its layout to TOPCon, XBC, HJT and laser transfer equipment, and its performance is expected to increase rapidly. We expect the company to still have a first-mover advantage in new technological changes. It is estimated that revenue in 2021-2023 will increase by 33%/54%/42% year-on-year.
(2) Accessories, maintenance and technical service fees: Considering the increase in the production capacity of existing battery cells, we expect revenue to increase by 50%/30%/20% year-on-year from 2021 to 2023.
4.2.1, Relative valuation
We expect the net profit attributable to shareholders in 2022/2023/2024 to be 514/751/1.05 billion yuan, corresponding to the PE of 2022-2024 to be 59/40/30x.
can be compared with the company to select photovoltaic cell equipment companies Jiejia Weichuang, Maiwei Co., Ltd., Haimuxing, as well as photovoltaic silicon wafer equipment manufacturing company Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical, which is also in the photovoltaic equipment track, and component equipment company Jinchen Co., Ltd., whose average PE value is 60/41/31x.
We believe that Dier Laser is the leader in photovoltaic laser equipment, and is expanding its layout to TOPCon, XBC, HJT and laser transfer equipment, and its performance is expected to increase rapidly.
Considering that the application of laser equipment in new technologies is expected to open up new space for the company's growth, the company's forward-looking layout has the first-mover advantage and is expected to be the first to enjoy the dividends of technology iteration. We give the company a target price-earnings ratio of 54x in 2023, with a target price of 240 yuan.
4.2.2, absolute valuation
uses the FCFF valuation method to perform an absolute valuation of the company. Assuming that the weighted average capital cost of the company is 7.10% and the perpetual growth rate is 2%, the company's equity value is 41.096 billion yuan, corresponding to the stock price per share of 241.59 yuan.
1, photovoltaic installation volume is lower than expected: , as the leader in photovoltaic laser equipment, orders are closely related to the expansion progress of downstream photovoltaic manufacturers. If the prosperity of the photovoltaic industry declines, resulting in the increase in new installed capacity not meeting expectations, the company's photovoltaic laser equipment business may be under pressure.
2. Technology iteration risks: The technological changes in the photovoltaic industry are changing with each passing day. If there are major changes in the downstream related technical fields or product upgrades in the future, the company may fail to grasp the latest demands in the downstream industry, resulting in order loss and adversely affecting the company's operating performance.
3. New product development is not as expected: company's technology and product development innovation requirements are high, and the research and development progress of laser transfer equipment and N-type battery laser equipment may not meet expectations, which will affect the company's performance increase rhythm.
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Selected report from [Fuanzhan Think Tank]
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