Macro: Social financing growth still has potential
New social financing data in September significantly exceeded market expectations. added 3.53 trillion yuan in social financing in September, 624.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.8 trillion yuan; although the base rose, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in September rose from 10.5% in August to 10.6% in September. At the same time, new credit in September was 2.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year, which also significantly exceeded market expectations of 1.8 trillion yuan.
In addition to the total amount, the structure of social financing and credit is also improving. htmlIn September, the new medium- and long-term loans and entrusted loans of new enterprises increased significantly year-on-year. htmlIn September, enterprises added 1.35 trillion yuan in medium- and long-term loans, an increase of 654 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the main driving force for boosting new credit in September. In September, 150.7 billion yuan of entrusted loans were added, an increase of 152.9 billion yuan year-on-year. This is the two consecutive months when entrusted loans remain above the level of 100 billion yuan. Behind this may be the corresponding large-scale and qualified enterprises to lend idle funds to other companies with strong credit constraints. Traditionally, the main investment in entrusted loans is infrastructure and real estate.
credit expansion supports M2 growth rate to continue to maintain a high level. Although the year-on-year growth rate of government bond financing slowed down in September, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in September remained at a high of 12.1%, mainly supported by the accelerated credit supply. The year-on-year growth rate of RMB credit balance in September rose from 10.9% in August to 11.2% in September.
rapid expansion of credit is the result of the gradual implementation of previous policies. The main investment is infrastructure, and the investment in real estate may also be accelerating. In fact, since June, the new funding support amount proposed at the policy level has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, including 800 billion yuan of policy bank new credit line, 600 billion yuan of policy-based policy-based financial tools that can be used as capital , 200 billion yuan of equipment renewal re-loans, 200 billion yuan of special loans for guaranteed housing (some may be duplicated with 800 billion yuan of policy-based bank credit), and 500 billion yuan of limited issuance of existing special bonds. Among the above funds, 300 billion yuan of policy-based financial instruments have been put into use before the end of September, mainly supporting infrastructure construction; on September 23, the first of the 200 billion yuan special loan for guaranteed housing payment was paid to Shenyang. In addition, the balance of mortgage supplementary loans (PSL) increased by 108.2 billion yuan in September, the highest since 2018. The PSL tool is mainly used to support policy banks' shantytown renovation loans. The increase in PSL balance may represent that policy banks' financial support for real estate construction is being accelerated. In terms of high-frequency data, we have also seen the recent anti-seasonal increase in the national cement shipment rate, which means that the construction activity of funds and real estate has increased recently.
looks forward, there is still potential for social financing growth in the fourth quarter. Among the 2 trillion yuan of financial support mentioned above, has 300 billion yuan of policy financial instruments (a total of 600 billion yuan) have been invested before the end of September. However, the first special loan of 200 billion yuan for guaranteed housing payment was paid to Shenyang on September 23. It is not ruled out that most of the quotas will still be actually invested in October; in addition to the 300 billion yuan that has been invested, there is another 300 billion yuan of policy financial instruments that were just announced in September, and most of the quotas may also be issued in the fourth quarter; the 200 billion yuan equipment renewal re-loan was also announced in September, and it is also possible that it will be mainly invested in the fourth quarter. In addition, 500 billion yuan of special bonds may be issued in October, and the balance of central bank PSL still has the possibility of continuing to rise.
To sum up, the remaining funding amount may still exceed 1 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter. Even if other supporting funds are not considered, this fund is equivalent to 15% of the new social financing in the fourth quarter of last year. October may be a concentrated month in the fourth quarter.We can make an assumption that if policy-based financial instruments are subject to 1:3 matching funds, special bonds are subject to 1:1 matching funds, and special loans for guaranteed housing payment and equipment renewal re-loans have no other matching funds, then the above 1 trillion yuan can be converted into a total capital investment of about 2.6 trillion yuan, equivalent to 39% of the new social financing in the fourth quarter of last year. The total amount of social financing is supported, but the multiplier effect needs the cooperation of other factors. 9 Residents' medium- and long-term loans increased by 121.1 billion yuan year-on-year. From October 1 to 7, the real estate transaction area in 20 cities decreased by 37% year-on-year, indicating that residents' confidence in buying a house has not yet fully recovered, and the developer cash flow is still under pressure. In this context, the multiplier effect of housing-related credit may be weak. In addition to the real estate market, the epidemic has been partially scattered recently, and the uncertainty faced by the private sector is still high, and the risk preference of is weak. Overall, the resilience of the total social financing is expected to provide a bottom-line for economic fundamentals, but it still requires the cooperation of other factors to be transformed into a comprehensive and sustainable economic recovery, including confidence in developers and the situation of the epidemic. We expect that as policy effects accumulate, positive factors will continue to increase, which will help support the recovery of the economy and market.
Chart: The growth rate of social financing increased slightly in September, and the growth rate of M2 decreased slightly at a high level
Source: Wind, People's Bank of China, CICC Research Department
Chart: The balance of mortgage supplementary loans (PSL) increased by 108.2 billion yuan in September, setting a record high since 2018
Source: Wind, People's Bank of China, CICC Research Department
Chart: The national cement shipment rate has risen against seasons recently
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: The remaining funding support amount in the fourth quarter may still exceed 1 trillion
Source: China Government Network, People's Bank of China, CICC Research Department
Bank: How to understand financial data that exceeds expectations?
html added 3.5 trillion yuan in September, an increase of 627.4 billion yuan year-on-year, higher than the 2.8 trillion yuan expected by Wind. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 10.6%, up 0.1ppt from the previous month; new loans were 2.47 trillion yuan, up 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year, higher than the Wind's consensus estimate of 1.8 trillion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year, up 0.3ppt from the previous month."stable growth" accelerated, and credit social financing exceeded expectations. In terms of loans, the loan scale in September increased by 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the contribution of medium- and long-term loans to corporate and short-term loans to corporate, respectively. The two increased by 654 billion yuan/474.1 billion yuan year-on-year, and the increase scale was the highest in 19 months/8 months respectively. We believe that it is mainly due to the "stable growth" orientation after the credit symposium in late August and the in-place capital tools for policy banks to supplement projects that drive the acceleration of infrastructure loan issuance; bill discount increased by 218 billion yuan year-on-year, and the rebound in bill interest rates in September indicates that credit demand is improved and the "impulse" of bills is reduced. In terms of social financing, the new social financing increased by 627.4 billion yuan year-on-year in September. In addition to the contribution of loans, entrusted loans/trust loans increased by 152.9 billion yuan/190.6 billion yuan year-on-year respectively. The high increase in entrusted loans may be related to the "security and subsidy" and infrastructure loan issuance, and trust loans may be mainly due to low base. In addition, government bonds increased by 254.1 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the pre-issuance this year and the high base for the same period last year.
Real estate loans need to be effective at both supply and demand. html In September, the medium- and long-term loans of residents increased by 121.1 billion yuan year-on-year, a decrease of 10 consecutive months, but the increase in the number of growth increased for two consecutive months, and the increase narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating that the effect of real estate relaxation policies has been shown, but the demand for residents to buy houses has not yet fully recovered. Since the end of September, policies have been put into force on both supply and demand of real estate loans. On the demand side, the 5-year LPR was reduced by 15 basis points in August. At the end of September, the People's Bank of China lowered the lower limit of first-home mortgage interest rates and first-home mortgage provident fund loan interest rates. The Ministry of Finance has given personal income tax refund preferential treatment for residents to buy houses; on the supply side, many departments launched a special loan of 200 billion yuan in policy to "guarantee the delivery of buildings" in August. State-owned banks are expected to drive the industry's moderate increase in real estate financing this year. Residents' home purchases improved month-on-month in September. We expect that as the policy effect appears, the growth rate of real estate loans is expected to stabilize this year.
infrastructure loans are expected to continue to support the bottom line. htmlIn September, the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans of enterprises continued to rebound since June, and the turning point was more obvious. Since June, the policy has adjusted 800 billion yuan in credit lines and added two batches of tools totaling 600 billion yuan to supplement the capital of infrastructure projects. Two of the capitals have been basically invested in September. As the project capital is gradually in place, we expect supporting loans to continue to support the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans for corporate enterprises to stabilize and recover. Judging from grassroots observation indicators such as asphalt , rebar , cement, and construction machinery sales, infrastructure implementation may have accelerated since August.
is expected to be successfully completed throughout the year. We expect the scale of new loans to be about 21-22 trillion yuan in 2022, an increase of about 1-2 trillion yuan year-on-year, which can achieve the goal of "expanding the scale of new loans" in the government work report; it is expected that the new credit and social financing will be the same year-on-year or slightly higher in 4Q22, with the growth rate of credit/social financing balance for the whole year by 10.6%/11.2%, which is basically stable compared with September.
bank stocks are expected to improve. Current bank valuation and position are both at the bottom of the market, which is highly attractive. Financial data in September exceeded expectations showed that the "stable growth" policy is more effective, and the valuation of bank stocks is expected to continue to rebound.
risk
The epidemic has repeated, and risks in the real estate industry have spread.
Macro: Social financing growth still has potential
New social financing data in September significantly exceeded market expectations. added 3.53 trillion yuan in social financing in September, 624.5 billion yuan more than the same period last year, significantly exceeding market expectations of 2.8 trillion yuan; although the base rose, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in September rose from 10.5% in August to 10.6% in September. At the same time, new credit in September was 2.47 trillion yuan, an increase of 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year, which also significantly exceeded market expectations of 1.8 trillion yuan.
In addition to the total amount, the structure of social financing and credit is also improving. htmlIn September, the new medium- and long-term loans and entrusted loans of new enterprises increased significantly year-on-year. htmlIn September, enterprises added 1.35 trillion yuan in medium- and long-term loans, an increase of 654 billion yuan year-on-year, which is the main driving force for boosting new credit in September. In September, 150.7 billion yuan of entrusted loans were added, an increase of 152.9 billion yuan year-on-year. This is the two consecutive months when entrusted loans remain above the level of 100 billion yuan. Behind this may be the corresponding large-scale and qualified enterprises to lend idle funds to other companies with strong credit constraints. Traditionally, the main investment in entrusted loans is infrastructure and real estate.
credit expansion supports M2 growth rate to continue to maintain a high level. Although the year-on-year growth rate of government bond financing slowed down in September, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in September remained at a high of 12.1%, mainly supported by the accelerated credit supply. The year-on-year growth rate of RMB credit balance in September rose from 10.9% in August to 11.2% in September.
rapid expansion of credit is the result of the gradual implementation of previous policies. The main investment is infrastructure, and the investment in real estate may also be accelerating. In fact, since June, the new funding support amount proposed at the policy level has exceeded 2 trillion yuan, including 800 billion yuan of policy bank new credit line, 600 billion yuan of policy-based policy-based financial tools that can be used as capital , 200 billion yuan of equipment renewal re-loans, 200 billion yuan of special loans for guaranteed housing (some may be duplicated with 800 billion yuan of policy-based bank credit), and 500 billion yuan of limited issuance of existing special bonds. Among the above funds, 300 billion yuan of policy-based financial instruments have been put into use before the end of September, mainly supporting infrastructure construction; on September 23, the first of the 200 billion yuan special loan for guaranteed housing payment was paid to Shenyang. In addition, the balance of mortgage supplementary loans (PSL) increased by 108.2 billion yuan in September, the highest since 2018. The PSL tool is mainly used to support policy banks' shantytown renovation loans. The increase in PSL balance may represent that policy banks' financial support for real estate construction is being accelerated. In terms of high-frequency data, we have also seen the recent anti-seasonal increase in the national cement shipment rate, which means that the construction activity of funds and real estate has increased recently.
looks forward, there is still potential for social financing growth in the fourth quarter. Among the 2 trillion yuan of financial support mentioned above, has 300 billion yuan of policy financial instruments (a total of 600 billion yuan) have been invested before the end of September. However, the first special loan of 200 billion yuan for guaranteed housing payment was paid to Shenyang on September 23. It is not ruled out that most of the quotas will still be actually invested in October; in addition to the 300 billion yuan that has been invested, there is another 300 billion yuan of policy financial instruments that were just announced in September, and most of the quotas may also be issued in the fourth quarter; the 200 billion yuan equipment renewal re-loan was also announced in September, and it is also possible that it will be mainly invested in the fourth quarter. In addition, 500 billion yuan of special bonds may be issued in October, and the balance of central bank PSL still has the possibility of continuing to rise.
To sum up, the remaining funding amount may still exceed 1 trillion yuan in the fourth quarter. Even if other supporting funds are not considered, this fund is equivalent to 15% of the new social financing in the fourth quarter of last year. October may be a concentrated month in the fourth quarter.We can make an assumption that if policy-based financial instruments are subject to 1:3 matching funds, special bonds are subject to 1:1 matching funds, and special loans for guaranteed housing payment and equipment renewal re-loans have no other matching funds, then the above 1 trillion yuan can be converted into a total capital investment of about 2.6 trillion yuan, equivalent to 39% of the new social financing in the fourth quarter of last year. The total amount of social financing is supported, but the multiplier effect needs the cooperation of other factors. 9 Residents' medium- and long-term loans increased by 121.1 billion yuan year-on-year. From October 1 to 7, the real estate transaction area in 20 cities decreased by 37% year-on-year, indicating that residents' confidence in buying a house has not yet fully recovered, and the developer cash flow is still under pressure. In this context, the multiplier effect of housing-related credit may be weak. In addition to the real estate market, the epidemic has been partially scattered recently, and the uncertainty faced by the private sector is still high, and the risk preference of is weak. Overall, the resilience of the total social financing is expected to provide a bottom-line for economic fundamentals, but it still requires the cooperation of other factors to be transformed into a comprehensive and sustainable economic recovery, including confidence in developers and the situation of the epidemic. We expect that as policy effects accumulate, positive factors will continue to increase, which will help support the recovery of the economy and market.
Chart: The growth rate of social financing increased slightly in September, and the growth rate of M2 decreased slightly at a high level
Source: Wind, People's Bank of China, CICC Research Department
Chart: The balance of mortgage supplementary loans (PSL) increased by 108.2 billion yuan in September, setting a record high since 2018
Source: Wind, People's Bank of China, CICC Research Department
Chart: The national cement shipment rate has risen against seasons recently
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: The remaining funding support amount in the fourth quarter may still exceed 1 trillion
Source: China Government Network, People's Bank of China, CICC Research Department
Bank: How to understand financial data that exceeds expectations?
html added 3.5 trillion yuan in September, an increase of 627.4 billion yuan year-on-year, higher than the 2.8 trillion yuan expected by Wind. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 10.6%, up 0.1ppt from the previous month; new loans were 2.47 trillion yuan, up 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year, higher than the Wind's consensus estimate of 1.8 trillion yuan, up 11.2% year-on-year, up 0.3ppt from the previous month."stable growth" accelerated, and credit social financing exceeded expectations. In terms of loans, the loan scale in September increased by 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the contribution of medium- and long-term loans to corporate and short-term loans to corporate, respectively. The two increased by 654 billion yuan/474.1 billion yuan year-on-year, and the increase scale was the highest in 19 months/8 months respectively. We believe that it is mainly due to the "stable growth" orientation after the credit symposium in late August and the in-place capital tools for policy banks to supplement projects that drive the acceleration of infrastructure loan issuance; bill discount increased by 218 billion yuan year-on-year, and the rebound in bill interest rates in September indicates that credit demand is improved and the "impulse" of bills is reduced. In terms of social financing, the new social financing increased by 627.4 billion yuan year-on-year in September. In addition to the contribution of loans, entrusted loans/trust loans increased by 152.9 billion yuan/190.6 billion yuan year-on-year respectively. The high increase in entrusted loans may be related to the "security and subsidy" and infrastructure loan issuance, and trust loans may be mainly due to low base. In addition, government bonds increased by 254.1 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the pre-issuance this year and the high base for the same period last year.
Real estate loans need to be effective at both supply and demand. html In September, the medium- and long-term loans of residents increased by 121.1 billion yuan year-on-year, a decrease of 10 consecutive months, but the increase in the number of growth increased for two consecutive months, and the increase narrowed for two consecutive months, indicating that the effect of real estate relaxation policies has been shown, but the demand for residents to buy houses has not yet fully recovered. Since the end of September, policies have been put into force on both supply and demand of real estate loans. On the demand side, the 5-year LPR was reduced by 15 basis points in August. At the end of September, the People's Bank of China lowered the lower limit of first-home mortgage interest rates and first-home mortgage provident fund loan interest rates. The Ministry of Finance has given personal income tax refund preferential treatment for residents to buy houses; on the supply side, many departments launched a special loan of 200 billion yuan in policy to "guarantee the delivery of buildings" in August. State-owned banks are expected to drive the industry's moderate increase in real estate financing this year. Residents' home purchases improved month-on-month in September. We expect that as the policy effect appears, the growth rate of real estate loans is expected to stabilize this year.
infrastructure loans are expected to continue to support the bottom line. htmlIn September, the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans of enterprises continued to rebound since June, and the turning point was more obvious. Since June, the policy has adjusted 800 billion yuan in credit lines and added two batches of tools totaling 600 billion yuan to supplement the capital of infrastructure projects. Two of the capitals have been basically invested in September. As the project capital is gradually in place, we expect supporting loans to continue to support the growth rate of medium- and long-term loans for corporate enterprises to stabilize and recover. Judging from grassroots observation indicators such as asphalt , rebar , cement, and construction machinery sales, infrastructure implementation may have accelerated since August.
is expected to be successfully completed throughout the year. We expect the scale of new loans to be about 21-22 trillion yuan in 2022, an increase of about 1-2 trillion yuan year-on-year, which can achieve the goal of "expanding the scale of new loans" in the government work report; it is expected that the new credit and social financing will be the same year-on-year or slightly higher in 4Q22, with the growth rate of credit/social financing balance for the whole year by 10.6%/11.2%, which is basically stable compared with September.
bank stocks are expected to improve. Current bank valuation and position are both at the bottom of the market, which is highly attractive. Financial data in September exceeded expectations showed that the "stable growth" policy is more effective, and the valuation of bank stocks is expected to continue to rebound.
risk
The epidemic has repeated, and risks in the real estate industry have spread.
Chart: Social financing and deposit and loan data in September 2022
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: New social financing in September increased by 627.4 billion yuan year-on-year
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Charts: New loans in September increased by 810.8 billion yuan year-on-year
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Charts: Social financing/credit year-on-year growth rate +0.1ppt/+0.3ppt
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: The year-on-year growth rate of M1/M2 +0.3ppt/-0.1ppt
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Corporate leverage begins to relay government leverage
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Enterprise leverage begins to relay government leverageSource: Wind, CICC Research Department
html l5 Chart: The growth rate of corporate loans continues to be higher than that of residents' loansSource: People's Bank of China, CICC Research Department
Chart: The growth rate of corporate short-term loans and medium- and long-term loans has increased, and the growth rate of bill discounts has decreased
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
chart: growth rate of medium and long loans and bill discount growth rate one by one
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Social financing pulse leads medium and long term corporate loan growth rate
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: September bill interest rate Overall rebound compared with August
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: The difference between bills and capital interest rates narrows, which may indicate a decrease in bill impulse
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: All loan demands appeared in the third quarter The month-on-month improvement
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Loan demand-approval scissors gap upward, interest rate downward trend is expected to stabilize
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: html l69 is a seasonal month of credit supply
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: September M1-M2 scissors gap narrowed slightly
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Social financing pulse leads the economic prosperity for about 6 months
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Credit increased in August, small and medium-sized banks decreased
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: The growth rate of loans for small and medium-sized banks has declined since the second half of 2020, and the growth rate of loans for large banks has increased
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Policy bank loans for may increase significantly this year
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Policy bank issuance of 600 billion yuan of financial bonds to inject infrastructure projects is expected to leverage 3 trillion yuan of infrastructure investment
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: The turning point of infrastructure loan growth is more obvious
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Government bond issuance drives the growth rate of infrastructure investment to rebound significantly
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Rebar operating rate in September rebounded
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Rebar inventory continued to decline in September
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Asphalt operating rate in September continues to rise
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: National cement price rise in September conforms to seasonal
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: National cement price rise in September conforms to seasonal
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Construction machinery sales bottomed out and rebounded
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Mortgage interest rates and loan cycles have dropped to the lowest level since 2019
Source: Beike Research Institute, CICC Research Department
Chart: Mortgage interest rates have dropped to the historical bottom
Source: Beike Research Institute, Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: Real estate transaction area has recovered in September
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: The increase in real estate loans of six major banks in 1H22 was about 663 billion yuan, only 40% of 1H21
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: The epidemic in October brought uncertainty
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Chart: We expect the growth rate of credit and social financing balances to remain stable this year
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Article source
This article is excerpted from: "Social financing growth still has potential" published on October 12, 2022
Analyst Zhou Peng SAC Certification No.: S0080521070001 SFC CE Ref: BSI036
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Analyst Zhang Wenlang SAC Certification No.: S0080520080009 SFC CE Ref: BFE988
"How to Understand Financial Data Exceeding Expectations" released on October 12, 2022? 》
analyst Lin Yingqi SAC Certification number: S0080521090006; SFC CE Ref: BGP853;
Contact person Xu Hongming SAC Certification number: S0080121080063;
analyst Zhang Shuishu SAC Certification number: S0080516060001; SFC CE Ref: BHQ055
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