A Senate election that originally attracted little interest from the market and the Japanese people has become the focus of recent emergencies.
According to information released by the Japan Election Commission, on July 10, Japan ushered in a Senate election every three years. The Senate election involved half of the 248 seats, namely 124 seats and a place with bench seats.
According to CCTV News , the latest voting results show that Liberal Democratic Party won 63 seats, 17 seats in the Cadet Party, and 13 seats in the Gongming Party. The ruling alliance between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party won 76 re-elected seats, plus the 70 seats that do not require re-elect this time, it will continue to maintain the advantage of more than half of the Senate seats. If the House of Representatives is not dissolved, there will be no congressional and Senate elections in the next three years. Therefore, Kishida's prime minister term is also considered to usher in a "golden three years".
More than 1 scholars interviewed by First Financial are not surprised by this result. In their opinion, on the one hand, pre-election polls mostly expect that the ruling coalition to win half of the seats is "a sure win"; on the other hand, two days before the election, one of the most influential figures in the political arena, the leader of the largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, was accidentally shot and died in a serious injury while giving a speech on the streets of Nara. This incident had a great impact on the psychology of voters. Fei Xue, an expert on Japanese issues at the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), said in his first financial interview that the majority of the ruling coalition in the House of Representatives will further strengthen the leadership of Kishida Fumio , so that his government can implement his leading economic agenda, encourage greater wage growth in the private sector through tax incentives and subsidies, and increase the defense budget.
will reorganize the cabinet and the ruling party
Congress is Japan's highest power and only legislature, divided into the Senate and the House of Representatives. There are 248 seats in the Senate, with a term of six years for senators, and half of them are re-elected every three years. Senate elections are of great significance in Japanese politics. For Kishida, this is the first national election since the formation of the cabinet in September last year, and therefore it is regarded as the "mid-term exam" of the Kishida government. The Japanese people scored a series of domestic and foreign policies of the Kishida government that has been in power for more than 10 months through elections.
This time, the ruling alliance between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party won a lot of "sympathy votes", but for the ruling alliance, especially the Liberal Democratic Party, the challenges of both political and economic issues have just begun.
Chen Yan, executive director of the Japanese Enterprises (China) Research Institute, told China Business News that before this incident, the Liberal Democratic Party did not pay much attention to the cultivation of successors. Therefore, after this emergencies, the question of "who will replace this largest faction within the Liberal Democratic Party" directly emerged.
Fei Xue also believes that the unexpected death of Abe has created a huge vacuum in Japanese politics, and his faction in the ruling party will strive to find a new leader with equal political experience and more broadly attractive. Fei Xue predicts that Kishida will consolidate his position within the party by uniting the Liberal Democratic Party and expanding post-election seats. After
wins the election, Kishida has stated that it will reorganize the cabinet and the Liberal Democratic Party team in September.
How to crack the economic challenge
For the Kishida government, how to lead Japan out of the current economic dilemma is obviously the top priority after the victory. Since the epidemic, the Japanese economy has been recurring. In particular, the latest foreign trade data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance in May showed that Japan's exports fell by 28.3% year-on-year, and imports fell by 26.2% year-on-year. Imports and exports both hit the largest decline in 10 years, and the import and export difference reached 833.4 billion yen (about 55.1 billion yuan) lower than the expected 1.07 trillion yen (70.7 billion yuan).
Vice President of the National Japanese Economic Society and Director of the Japan Economic Center of Shanghai University of International Business and Economics Chen Zilei said that since 2012, the asset bubble fabricated by the Japanese government was beneficial to large Japanese enterprises, small enterprises, the rich and the poor, and the problems left behind gradually emerged. Therefore, the current Kishida government emphasizes the "redistribution" policy, aiming to narrow the gap between the rich and the poor. "At present, Japan's economy has been sluggish for a long time, the income gap among people is relatively large, and the problem of low birth rate and aging is serious.In general, the younger generation is also relatively confused about the future. The entire society is "undercurrents", various ideas are intertwined, and the contradictions are relatively large. "Chen Zilei said.
In the election that just ended, inflation has undoubtedly become a topic of concern to voters. Data previously released by the Japanese Cabinet Office showed that Japan's consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.9% year-on-year in May; Japan's consumer price index rose to 3.0% in April. Core inflation, excluding fresh food, rose 2.1% year-on-year, the same as the increase in April. Although looking at the world, this figure is not high compared with many European countries where core inflation has long exceeded the double-digit number, it is Japan's largest increase since October 2014. Several Japanese media polls show that the vast majority of voters believe that the current inflation rate is "unacceptable".
Fei Xue told Caixin that the Kishida government is expected to rely on fiscal measures, including fuel tax relief and financial support to households through vouchers and cash relief, to mitigate the impact of rising consumer prices. "However, as Japan's current weak domestic demand and tepid wage growth are currently in full swing, Japan's consumer price inflation will fade in 2023 as externally driven inflation factors gradually disappear. "
Looking to the future, Fei Xue believes that the current Kishida government will use this election victory to promote reforms under the framework of "new capitalism" that emphasizes faster wage growth and fairer income distribution. "In order to encourage stronger wage growth in the private sector, incentives for enterprises need to be motivated, including tax cuts, supporting employee training and skills development. The government may also propose a faster increase in the minimum wage. "In addition, the Kishida government will provide incentives for investment in the renewable energy sector to improve the country's energy security and digitalization, which will support investment expenditures for enterprises. ”
