Original title: Analysis of the current status of China's commodities and supply chain market in 2022, industry leading enterprises continue to grow "picture"
1. Commodity industry chain and CBMI index
Commodity refers to large-scale trading material commodities that can enter the circulation field and are different from retail links that have commodity attributes and are used for industrial and agricultural production and consumption use.
According to the attributes of the commodity industry, commodities can be roughly divided into industrial products and agricultural products, among which industrial products include iron ore, steel, copper, coal, crude oil, plastic and other black, non-ferrous metals and energy chemicals, and agricultural products include soybeans, corn, rubber, wood and other agricultural and sideline commodities. Commodities have the characteristics of large supply and demand scale, large price fluctuations, easy grading and standardization, and strong financial attributes.
Commodity Industry Chain
Source: Public Information Compilation
From the domestic commodity CBMI index, according to relevant data, China's Commodity Index (CBMI) in August 2022 was 102.3%, up 1.0 percentage points from the previous month. Among all sub-indexes, the supply index and inventory index both fell, while the sales index rebounded significantly. Judging from the changes in the index, CBMI rebounded to its highest level since May 2021 this month, indicating that supply pressure has eased, commodity demand has begun to recover, the previous contradiction between supply and demand mismatch is eased, and the domestic commodity market has begun to seep positive changes.
Changes in China's commodities CBMI index from 2020 to 2022
Source: China Federation of Logistics and Procurement, compiled by Huajing Industry Research Institute
2. Commodity industry policy review
From the policy side, the policy is strictly controlled, and commodity prices are easy to fall but difficult to rise. Looking back at the policies since 2021, before July/August 2021, the government had issued policies to ensure the supply of commodities, and the prices of related commodities fell. With the arrival of the winter electricity peak, some provinces and cities have tightened power supply, and have introduced production and electricity restrictions to push up commodity prices. However, in mid-to-late October, the National Development and Reform Commission issued important calls for commodities, especially coal, and introduced a number of policy measures to crack down on excessive speculation. The upward trend of commodities will be curbed due to this impact, and the prices of raw materials such as coal, steel, and copper have gradually fallen.
2021 related policies of China's commodity industry
Source: Government public report, compiled by Huajing Industry Research Institute
III. Commodity supply chain review
3. 3 bulk supply chain enterprises mainly provide manufacturing enterprises with commodity procurement and supply, warehousing and transportation, import customs clearance, supply chain information, financing settlement and other services, covering the entire value chain link between the enterprise's materials, semi-finished products and auxiliary materials procurement and supply, and the distribution and distribution of finished products; the goods involved mainly include metal minerals (steel, nonferrous, etc.), energy and chemicals (coal, plastic, organic chemicals, etc.), agricultural and sideline products (grain and cereals, food raw materials, feed raw materials, pulp, etc.).
The core of the bulk supply chain platform lies in the scale effect brought by centralized collection supply capacity and the bargaining power of upstream and downstream industrial chains. The key to determining the difference in the corporate model of bulk supply chain lies in the application scope of the centralized collection supply capacity (commodity procurement link, logistics, funds, etc.), as well as the purpose of the application (earning self-operated price difference/service fee).
Commodity supply chain enterprise service situation
Source: Public information sorting
From the perspective of commodity supply chain enterprise business model, according to whether the upstream supply and downstream customers are controllable, the procurement and supply business is divided into agent and self-operated models. The traditional model of bulk supply chain enterprises mainly use the self-operated model, and their capabilities are reflected in relying on the advantages of commodity procurement cost, information advantages, and earning bid and sale price difference.The specific comparison and introduction are as follows:
Introduction to the main business model of commodity procurement and supply business
Source: Public information sorting
IV. Analysis of the current status of the commodity industry
Bulk supply chain involves metal minerals (black, nonferrous, etc.), energy and chemical (coal, petrochemical, etc.), agricultural products, etc., and is the upstream of various industrial chains. As a world's factory and population country, my country's bulk supply chain is relatively large. According to the Xiamen Xiangyu annual report, since 2016, my country's commodity supply chain transaction volume has stabilized at about 40 trillion yuan, and it is a large-scale industry without significant growth.
2016-2020 China's commodity supply chain market size and growth rate
Note: The commodity supply chain service market size = operating income of bulk industrial enterprises + commodity imports.
Source: Xiamen Xiangyu Annual Report, compiled by Huajing Industry Research Institute
From the perspective of commodity market segments, ferrous metal is about 7.3 trillion yuan, coal is about 4 trillion yuan, petroleum and petrochemical is about 4 trillion yuan, non-ferrous metals are about 3 trillion yuan, and grain and oil crops are about 2 trillion yuan.
Scale segmentation of China's commodity market in 2020
Source: Public information sorting
5.Commodity supply chain market competition pattern
From the global market competition, the global metals and energy chemical giant package Including Glencore (Glencore), Tok (Trafigurre), Vitol, etc.; the agricultural product giants are four major grain merchants ADM, Bunge (Bunge), Cargill (Cargill ), and Louis Dreyfus (Louis Dreyfus). Among them, the revenue scale of metals and energy chemical giants such as Glencore, Tok, and Vito exceeded 1 trillion yuan, while the revenue scale of the four major grain merchants was above 200 billion yuan. Domestic companies Jianfa Co., Ltd., Guocai, Xiamen Guomao , Xiamen Xiangyu's businesses include both metals, energy, and agricultural products. The revenue volume of these companies in 2021 is about 500 billion yuan, and compared with the size of global giants, there is still room for growth several times.
Revenue of the world's leading commodity supply chain companies in 2021
Note: US dollar: RMB is converted at 6.7:1.
Source: Public information compilation
my country's bulk supply chain industry is scattered, with leading enterprises' market share at around 2%, but in recent years, the industry concentration has increased significantly, and leading enterprises have continued to grow. According to statistics, from 2016 to 2021, my country's CR4 market share quickly increased from 1.21% to about 5.5%. Among them, the market share of Jianfa Co., Ltd., China National Building Materials, Xiamen Guomao and Xiamen Xiangyu was 1.77%/1.41%/1.16%/1.16% respectively. In the future, downstream manufacturers may pay more and more attention to the integrated service capabilities of suppliers. Leading companies such as Xiamen Xiangyu can provide comprehensive service providers with one-stop services such as trade, logistics, and supply chain finance, and their market share is expected to continue to increase.
2016-2021 China's commodity supply chain industry market concentration
Source: Xiamen Xiangyu Annual Report, compiled by Huajing Industry Research Institute
6. Future development trends of the commodity supply chain industry
1. The frequent occurrence of the new crown epidemic tests the security and stability of the supply chain. The country attaches great importance to highlighting the importance of the industry
2021, the new crown epidemic occurs frequently in many places, and the security and stability of the supply chain faces a major challenge. The 2021 Government Work Report proposes that it is necessary to optimize and stabilize the industrial chain and supply chain, and enhance the independent and controllable capabilities of the industrial chain. Recently, the State Council issued an opinion on "establishing a unified large market", pointing out that it is necessary to "build a modern circulation network, vigorously develop multimodal transport, accelerate digital construction, and actively prevent the risk of supply shortage of important products such as grain and energy." The importance of the bulk supply chain industry has been further highlighted, ushering in a broader development space.
2. Tension of the international situation has exacerbated the fluctuations in commodity prices and put forward higher requirements on risk control capabilities
In 2021, due to the intensified geopolitical conflicts and tense international situation, commodity prices have increased. The current international situation is complex and the supply tension is difficult to alleviate in the short term. However, the pace of tightening monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is still firm, and the market has high expectations for continuing to raise interest rates and even ending QE. With tight supply and currency tightening, there is still great uncertainty in the future commodity price trend.
leading supply chain companies can effectively deal with the risk of commodity price fluctuations by increasing the proportion of manufacturing enterprises' customers, creating a product portfolio, improving the risk control system, dynamic margin management, flexible settlement methods, and enriching hedging tools.
3. Customers' demand for comprehensive services is increasing, and leading supply chain companies have more competitive advantages
my country's manufacturing industry accounts for the world's largest proportion for many years, which has spawned a huge demand for bulk supply chain services. As manufacturing enterprises become increasingly specialized and large-scale, customers have changed from simply pursuing "low price" to paying more attention to the "safety and efficiency" of the overall supply chain, and have put forward higher requirements for the combined supply of raw and auxiliary materials, rapid distribution of finished products, logistics and distribution efficiency, link cost optimization, convenient financing and inventory safety and turnover efficiency. Leading supply chain companies integrate various circulation factors to provide customers with one-stop services throughout the process, which can effectively meet the core demands of manufacturing enterprises and have more competitive advantages.
4, digital and intelligent helps industry upgrades and meets customers' intelligent service needs
Development Research Center of the State Council pointed out that the global supply chain in the future will show many new development trends, and China should make good use of the opportunities brought by the new technological revolution of to enhance its position in the global supply chain. As manufacturing enterprises become increasingly specialized and scaled, customers have changed from simply pursuing "low price" to paying more attention to "safety and efficiency" of the overall supply chain, and new technical means are urgently needed to empower them.
Cloud computing , big data, artificial intelligence , blockchain and other digital technologies are booming, gradually penetrating into the bulk supply chain service industry, playing an increasingly important role in expanding the incremental market, improving service efficiency, and upgrading business models of bulk supply chain service companies. Leading supply chain companies are expected to rely on massive business data, huge customer resources and rich application scenarios to take the lead in achieving the effective integration of digital technology and business operations, and seize new development highlands.
5. Supply chain finance is accelerating its development, and bulk supply chain enterprises are expected to enjoy dividends
2021 Government Work Report separately mentioned the "innovative supply chain financial service model" for the first time. Its role in solving the financing problems of small and medium-sized enterprises and the de-realization of finance into virtuality has been recognized and supported at the national level. my country's supply chain finance has entered a stage of rapid development, and the application of financial technology such as blockchain has further accelerated the market penetration rate of . According to relevant statistics, the scale of the supply chain financial market in 2021 grew to 28.6 trillion yuan, with broad service space.
The leading supply chain companies have huge business traffic, rich application scenarios, a complete logistics system, and excellent risk control capabilities. By building a digital platform, building a credible data bridge between banks and small and medium-sized enterprises is the best carrier for carrying out supply chain financial services, and are expected to be the first to enjoy the dividends of the rapid development of digital supply chain finance.
2016-2021 China's supply chain financial market size and growth rate
Source: Public information sorting
Original title: Analysis of the current situation of China's commodity and supply chain market in 2022, industry leading enterprises continue to grow "picture"
Huajing Industry Research Institute The current development status of China's commodity and supply chain industries, upstream and downstream industrial chains, competitive landscapes and key enterprises have conducted in-depth analysis to minimize corporate investment risks and operating costs and improve corporate competitiveness; and use a variety of data analysis technologies to predict the industry's development trends so that enterprises can seize market opportunities in a timely manner; for more detailed content, please pay attention to the "2022-2027 China Supply Chain Finance Industry Market Operation Status and Investment Planning Recommendations Report" published by Huajing Industrial Research Institute.
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