first choice track: real estate, pork, medical, heat pump, BIPV, automobile, sodium battery , direction.
Real Estate: The biggest risk in China is actually real estate, because our real estate scale is too large and the debt leverage is relatively high. In recent years, almost all the funds issued by currency have flowed into the housing market, but in recent years, monetary policy has been tightened, and housing for living, not for speculation has become an iron rule. It coincides with the peak of the urbanization process and the population dividend has disappeared. After the implementation of the "three red lines", some real estate companies are in trouble, and some unfinished buildings have appeared. If they are affected by the global economic recession, the bubble will easily burst. The real estate technology pattern fluctuates in the range, and the moving average pressure is small. With a little capital effort, an upward trend will be easily formed. There are many positive news recently, so pay attention to it.
pork, the pig cycle has reversed and is still in the early stage of the upward cycle. With the marginal sales of energy-intensive inventory last year, the supply pressure of pigs is expected to improve month by month in the future. In terms of demand, with factors such as cooler weather and increasing holidays, demand has improved seasonally. With weak supply and strong demand, the pig price center may continue to rise. In the current situation of rising more than expected, the profit and valuation space of pig companies' heads are open. In the medium and long term, the current capacity growth rate is limited, which corresponds to the continued high pig prices next year. The allocation value of the pig sector is highlighted. The pork sector index has reached the previous platform level, and multiple support rebounds can explode at any time. Focus on: Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Aonong Biology, Muyuan Shares .
Medical devices: At present, many sellers regard strengthening grassroots hospital as a policy focus and weather vane. Recently, Hong Kong and Macao have gradually relaxed tourism. Combined with bank loans, it is a political task. Before the festival, local hospitals must report loan needs and details. Hospitals need to enhance medical devices. With the technical form and sufficient adjustment of medical devices, it is expected to open up a new upward trend.
Heat pump: European cold winter is approaching, domestic heat pumps and other heating equipment exports are "exploded". According to CCTV Finance, many European countries are about to enter winter. However, as the gap in natural gas continues to intensify, some Europeans have begun to hoard coal, while others turn to purchase household heating equipment with less energy consumption. The demand for energy-saving heating has increased, and the order volume of relevant enterprises in my country has increased significantly, especially the hot momentum of air source heat pump production has continued from the beginning of the year to the present. Some manufacturers said that exports increased by 200% year-on-year in the first half of the year, and the actual revenue reached 200%, and the number of orders in hand increased by 10 times. With the support of European orders, the industrialization process of domestic heat pumps will be accelerated comprehensively, and related export companies are expected to benefit. Focus on: Dayuan Pump Industry, Sunrise Oriental,
BIPV, most branches of photovoltaic have increased greatly. Opening large-scale photovoltaic roofs in Europe and the United States will help BIPV make up for the rise. Pay attention to Oriental Risheng , Tuori New Energy , Qingyuan , Zhonglai ;
Auto parts, automobiles are the second largest industry in China, Yangtze River Delta accounts for about 22% of domestic automobile production, and the added value of the automobile industry accounts for as high as 31%. To stimulate consumption, focus on the automobile industry. Automobile pays attention to early active stocks, focusing on integrated die-casting and vehicle-wide directions.
sodium battery, sodium battery is a new technical product. The high price of lithium ore will accelerate the development of sodium batteries. Pay attention to the key points of sodium batteries: Chuanyi Technology, Weike technology, Huayang Co., Ltd.
Opportunity sector: Food and beverage, semiconductor chip , military industry, industrial master machine, wind energy, storage energy , infrastructure , cultivation diamond .
food and beverages, affected by Haitian Flavor Industry news, will be similar to Jiuguijiu digging a hole back then;
semiconductor chips, which have many negative news recently and are currently in a medium- and long-term downward trend. Pay attention to the support of the previous lows, and it is estimated that there will be a new low after a small rebound.It mainly looks at silicon carbide , materials and equipment, photoresist , and the third-generation semiconductor direction;
military industry, with a significant downward trend, avoiding ;
industrial master machine, the investment logic of industrial master machine is mainly the logic of domestic substitution, high-end upgrade, and update replacement. (1) Domestic substitution: my country's machine tools are not domestically produced, and there are problems such as shutdown and supply, high import dependence, and relatively low technical content of export products, which promote the general direction of domestic substitution. (2) High-end upgrade: my country's manufacturing industry is transforming to the high-end, requiring high-end talents, high-end technology, and high-end equipment. (3) Update and replacement cycle: The update cycle of the machine tool is about ten years, and the vertex of the previous round was around 2011. At this stage, domestic machine tools will theoretically usher in a window of a large number of replacement cycles. In September, two CSI machine tool ETFs, Huaxia Fund and Cathay Fund, successfully received approval from the my country Securities Regulatory Commission. With the implementation of the first batch of ETF funds to deploy in the machine tool industry, the industrial parent machine concept stock will also be paid attention to by more investors. The technology pattern is waiting for the bottoming of the fluctuation and pulling up;
wind energy, wind energy technology pattern has obvious short-term head signs, it has just broken, and it is avoided in the short term;
energy storage, energy storage technology pattern is obviously downward, focuses on inverter core stock ;
infrastructure, new infrastructure construction , one end is connected to expand domestic demand and improve people's livelihood, and the other end is connected to technological innovation and industrial development. It has important practical significance for optimizing the investment structure and creating new demand with high-quality supply. Construction companies, construction companies, especially green infrastructure and assembly buildings, will be the main line in the future. The main policy stimulus factor is: the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it should speed up the introduction of a series of policy measures to implement the strategy to expand domestic demand, and carry out infrastructure investment in moderately and ahead of schedule.
East and West Calculation, the national integrated big data center system has completed the overall layout design, and the " East and West Calculation " project has officially started. At the end of September, the National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to promote the "East Digital and West Calculation" project in a three-dimensional manner, focusing on strengthening the four coordinations. First, strengthen the coordination between major engineering projects and supporting policies. The second is to strengthen the coordination between multiple policy tools. The third is to strengthen the coordination between the national computing power hub and the national integrated computing power network system. Fourth, strengthen the coordination between data center construction and computing power industry development. The East and West counts back to the previous platform support, the adjustment is coming to an end, and a new pull-up is about to begin;
short-term focus is on: pork, medical care, real estate, heat pumps, and BIPV directions.
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