While celebrating the holiday, according to previous practice, Mid-Autumn National Day consumption peak season is approaching, but the capital market has differentiated. Since September, the food and beverage sector has led the market to decline.
(The content of this article is listed in objective data and information and does not constitute any investment advice)
1 The peak season is not "broad"
is another golden autumn festival. According to previous experience, Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day are the traditional peak seasons of consumption of liquor. The big supermarket has also started to promote liquor.
is somewhat different from the hottest before the "Double Festivals". Before this year's festival, liquor did not start a price increase. , especially before the festival, the sales of liquor were very dull. Some dealers said: "Except Moutai, other brands of liquor sales are not as good as in previous years, compared with inverter ."
Looking at the performance of liquor companies in the first half of this year, it is not difficult to find that they are facing a more difficult development environment.
According to the semi-annual report, many liquor companies have achieved double-digit growth in revenue and net profit. However, there are 961 liquor companies above the scale nationwide, with a loss of 190, accounting for 19.77%. The cumulative losses of loss-making companies reached 1.341 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 65.03%. According to the overall data of
, the average revenue growth rate of 20 listed liquor companies in the first half of the year was 30.23%, and the average net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.20%. The revenue growth rate has almost doubled the growth rate of large-scale liquor companies, and its net profit attributable to shareholders is slightly lower than the industry average.
In addition, in early August, the "2022 Winery Status and Development Report" released by the China Wine Exhibition showed that from January to June this year, 80% of liquor distributors had serious inventory; of which about 39.7% of the wine merchants were in stock for 5 months. Above, 33.6% of the wine merchants are present for 3 to 5 months.
It is not difficult to understand the difficulties faced by major liquor companies. It has been two years and nine months since the outbreak of the new crown epidemic in 2020. The impact of the epidemic has caused consumption levels to decline and the consumption scenarios of liquor have decreased. Therefore, the price increase of the liquor industry It is unsustainable, and the entire liquor industry is in the stage of destocking. The inventory pressure of wine companies is high and the financial pressure is also high, and many brands have already started the "intra-roll" model.
It is worth noting that yesterday the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for Supporting Guizhou to Accelerate the Improvement of Financial and Political Management Capacity and Try to Break a New Path of High-Quality Development", which emphasized "priority support Guizhou to carry out the reform of the marketing system of liquor enterprises" . Some netizens said that the first time I saw the favorable policies of liquor.
Currently, there is an ETF (Penghua Liquor ETF) on the market that specializes in tracking the CSI Liquor Index, with a scale of up to 10.76 billion yuan. The purity of liquors in its tracking index can be said to be very high, with beer and other liquors accounting for only 13.8%, and the remaining weights are given to liquors.
There are 4 ETF related to food and beverages, of which 3 follow the CSI subdivided food and beverage industry theme index, and its proportion of liquor reaches 64.2%.
2 Liquor: Two points marginal improvement
The downturn in the liquor sector is not limited to September. After the CSI Liquor Index reached its high this year at the end of June, it has started a pullback mode.
The liquor sector has mainly been sluggish in the past two months: First, the impact of the epidemic, and consumption data has been relatively weak, which is the fundamental reason for the sluggish overall consumption sector; second, Shede's performance crashed at the end of July, but the net profit in the second quarter was It fell 30% year-on-year, worse than expected.
The organization has given relatively pessimistic conclusions on whether liquor can reverse in the subsequent time.
Tianfeng Securities stated that the question of whether the liquor sector can usher in a fundamental reversal in the third quarter can be considered from the two perspectives of channel feedback during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day peak season and the financial statements of listed companies.
"From the first point, due to the impact of the epidemic, the frequency and quantity of wine used by enterprises in business activities are decreasing, and corporate business activities are directly related to the economy. We judge that it will show a slow recovery, liquor channel in the third quarter There is little possibility of a strong reversal in real sales ”. On the other hand, judging from the growth rate of prepayment in the liquor sector in recent quarters, there is no basis for a strong reversal in the revenue growth rate in the liquor sector in the third quarter. It is recommended to pay attention to it. Stocking and channel expectations during the peak season of the Spring Festival.
Of course, from the current point of view, there are two points worth paying attention to in the liquor sector.
First, the negative sectors of liquor's second-quarter performance have been digested. Judging from the subsequent performance given by liquor companies, only a few of them have dropped sharply, and most of the performance is better than expected, especially the overall core and sub-high-end liquor. Performance resilience is still relatively strong. This point of
is also often mentioned to everyone in previous articles. The epidemic has accelerated the differentiation of the liquor industry. The leading liquor companies are taking advantage of the time when small and medium-sized liquor companies are too busy to take care of themselves to quickly seize market share, and second- and third-tier brands are facing great pressure.
After a period of deep structural adjustment, market consumption demand will be more concentrated and tilted towards advantageous production areas, leading enterprises and excellent brands, and the industry's " Matthew effect " is becoming more and more obvious.
The second point is that the local epidemic is under control, and the traditional peak season for liquor in Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day will further promote the recovery of industry expectations. As for the trend turning point, it depends on when macro consumption will show a turning point, including the transformation of prevention and control policies, etc.
In general, the liquor industry is differentiated, and the strong will always be strong, and the overall performance of the industry depends on whether the consumption scenario can be repaired.
This article is derived from ETF evolution theory
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