was first published on the WeChat public account: Mr. Pig 666
The market is up pretty well today, but if you look at the ups and downs list, you will find that the individual stocks that are up and down are actually quite equal, and the large-cap stocks have risen more, especially the new energy-related stocks. Up, CATL rose by 6.2%, and LONGi shares rose by 6.7%.
said several news worthy of attention:
1. Willing to the wine industry once again fell to the limit. Before
, I didn't notice that such a liquor company was so crazy. In just three months after the holiday, 's stock price has quadrupled! I can only say cows, I can't accept it. It is estimated that many people will be jealous. According to the normal psychology , someone will definitely go to the liquor stock to dig for the next such opportunity. If you want me to say, it's better not to worry about your own money. According to past experience, jealousy is followed by injury.
2. Guo Shuqing said: Those who bet that house prices will never fall will eventually pay a heavy price!
Not long ago, in response to the rising RMB exchange rate, the leaders of the central bank also made a similar statement, believing that the RMB exchange rate fluctuates in both directions, and after that, the RMB exchange rate fell. Several major policies in the real estate industry recently: three red lines, total loan control, centralized land supply, transfer of land transfer fees to tax collection, which are objectively conducive to regulating the market and reducing gray areas. Poly and OCT are considered long-term good .
3. High-level: Rich residents can invest in financial products , improve the dividend distribution system of listed companies , I think there will be continuous policy dividends in the stock market in the future. If you have spare money and no good investment targets, you might as well buy some index fund of CSI 300. The current valuation is not high. I think the probability of reaching an annualized 15% in the next few years is very high.
4. China Photovoltaic Industry Association appeals: Resist excessive stockpiling and price gouging of polysilicon and silicon wafer products. The more appealing
is, the stronger the demand. Behind the price gouging is the imbalance between supply and demand. The price of photovoltaic raw materials has risen rapidly recently. Under the background of carbon neutrality and , all kinds of green and low-carbon energy have achieved unprecedented development, including CATL, BYD , etc.
Today, I will analyze LONGi shares. I sold this stock early. I sold it around 60 yuan on August 10 last year. Looking back, it sold out. I have reflected on this, and there are two main lessons:
- Don't predict the ceiling of a good company. What investors need to do is to observe whether the fundamentals and valuation of the company's operations have exceeded their previous expectations, rather than predicting the company's future ceiling, because our understanding of the company will never reach the excellent company. The level of management .
- Don't easily get off excellent companies.The reason why the company is excellent lies in the fact that the management can always take the lead one step ahead of others, accelerate development when the industry encounters the wind, and plan ahead when the industry experiences a downturn.
I bought LONGi shares in October 2018. Looking back, it was a good buy. It doubled quickly after buying, but after March 2019, it began to fluctuate sideways for a year, and then it has continued to rise so far. If it is not sold, then LONGi shares will become another ten times my shares. However, if you sell it, you will sell it. It is important not to make similar mistakes in the future.
To judge whether a company is worth buying, it mainly depends on three dimensions: First, the fundamentals of the company are good. The second is to see whether the management of the company is excellent. The third is to see whether the company's valuation is attractive. Are the fundamentals of
good? In the photovoltaic industry where the company is located, under the background of carbon neutrality and carbon emission reduction, the demand is rapidly releasing, which has led to the hype of the silicon material mentioned above. The hype is just an appearance, and the root cause behind it is the imbalance between supply and demand. So the industry is currently in a boom cycle.
The revenue of LONGi in the past few years is like this, and the revenue continues to grow rapidly.
What are the aspects of the company's competitiveness and performance?
is first and foremost the first-mover advantage in the field of monocrystalline silicon . The management has seen the future trend of monocrystalline silicon very early, and started early and acted quickly, and has achieved a head start in the process of replacing polycrystalline silicon with monocrystalline silicon. This is an excellent performance by the company.
is followed by the advantages of integration. The company has successively signed long-term supply agreements with upstream suppliers of silicon materials and glass. In the context of rising raw material prices and shortages, this layout is enough to witness the management's foresight.If it is like LONGi, then the photovoltaic industry association does not need to speak up. The company's integrated layout reduces the company's component costs by 10% compared to its peers, and the demand information of the terminal market and upstream cost information can be quickly transmitted, and the company can respond quickly and actively, which further enhances the company's competitive advantage. .
In 2015, LONGi's photovoltaic module shipments were still out of the top 10. In 2018, it jumped to the fourth place, and in 2020 it jumped to the first place.
In addition, the company has prepared technical reserves to cope with future industry changes and scale development, and has layouts on several battery technology routes.
The price of photovoltaic modules will continue to decline in the long run, which makes the cost of photovoltaic power generation closer to thermal power. The disadvantage is that the cost competition of the entire industry will still be very fierce. The advantage is that the price reduction brings economic enhancement, which in turn brings further amplification of demand. The company is in a leading position in the industry, and has the advantage of integration in management. Several decisions have reflected the company's profound industry insight and excellent action, and therefore the company's profitability has always been higher than its peers. Not only that, but taking precautions to fully reserve new technologies, these advantages will be continuously reflected in the future development, and the company's profitability will be continuously expanded.
and therefore the fundamentals of the company are very good.
Let's talk about whether the management is excellent. I remember that when I analyzed Spring Airlines , I mentioned that the fundamentals of the company are actually the result of the management's operation. Management is the reason, and excellence is the result. From past experience, I think the management of the company is very good.
Let’s talk about valuation.When I sold it last year, I didn’t actually expect that the next country would adopt a carbon neutral policy, so I thought that the price increase of PV modules was just a temporary hype, and the company’s stock price was hyped too high under this kind of hype. In hindsight, this is not the case, but the market has already smelled the wind of the carbon neutral policy, the demand is constantly increasing, and the company's performance is also constantly releasing.
The following is the latest agency's forecast for the profit growth of LONGi in the next three years, which is roughly doubled in three years. According to the current market value of 400 billion yuan, the price-earnings ratio of LONGi shares in 2020 is 46 times, and the price-earnings ratio corresponding to this year is about 33 times. Is
a high valuation? That valuation is actually comparable to when I sold it last August. The difference is that in August last year, I judged that it was the peak of the economy and will decline in the future. The current agency forecast is that the company will continue to run at peak levels in the future. From this perspective, the company's valuation is not high.
The following is the holdings of institutions since 2018. It can be seen that before the fourth quarter of 2020, if the institutional holdings of LONGi shares were generally high in the previous quarter, they will be low in the next quarter. Institutions come and go, go Come, toss again and again. The concentrated increase in positions was in the second quarter of 2020, when the price of components was rising, and then it has continued to reduce positions since then. The current institutional positions still account for 14.23%, which is higher than that of Kweichow Moutai.
Many people may think that this ratio is the same, not too high. But you must know that this is only the position of the public offering fund, and there are numerous private equity funds and investment institutions that are not listed.The company's major shareholder and other long-term investment shareholders account for about 45%. Of the remaining 55% of the shares, public offering alone accounts for 14.23%, and institutional funds are likely to have accounted for about 30%. Ordinary investors may only have 20% to 25%.
The above is only personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice.
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