Gunsmoke 1: Concentration and differentiation "Barbaric" start
Mainly manifested as Four major concentrations and four major differentiations, the details are as follows: First, brand concentration and category differentiation; According to the annual reports of 19 listed liquor companies last year, there were 7 wine companies with over 10 billion yuan. Among unlisted companies, sauce wine companies alone had 3 brands with over 10 billion yuan. Including the health wine boss Jin brand, about 11 wine companies have revenue scales of 10 billion. As of the third quarter of this year, there are many wine companies with revenue exceeding 5 billion, all of which have launched a strong impact on the goal of 10 billion. Some institutions predict that by 2025, 6 wine companies will cross the 10 billion mark, 5 wine companies will enter the 20 billion camp, 3 companies will achieve a breakthrough of 40 billion, Wuliangye will hit the 100 billion goal, and Moutai will move towards the 200 billion goal. What is in sharp contrast to the concentration of brands is the differentiation of categories. For a long time, strong aroma has occupied most of China's liquor industry, accounting for more than 70% of the liquor industry. However, with the arrival of the industry's deep adjustment period, the consumption pattern of this category has begun to change quietly. Especially after 2016, driven by Moutai and supported by capital, Maotai wine began to become popular. In just four years, Maotai wine contributed 30% of the industry's revenue and 40% of profits with 7% of its production capacity . Until 2021, after the fever of sauce subsided, the fragrance fever revived. It was also driven by the leading brand ( Fenjiu ) and accelerated by the blessing of capital (Shanxi). According to agency statistics and forecasts, the overall market share of the fragrance category has reached more than 15%. Representatives of Maotai-flavor hot, light-flavor hot and other special fragrance sectors will have a relatively obvious impact on the unified category structure of large and strong flavors in the wine industry, and the trend of category differentiation is gradually becoming apparent. Secondly, industries are concentrated and production areas are differentiated; In recent years, the governments of famous wine-producing areas in Sichuan and Guizhou have placed great emphasis on the local pillar wines. The directional support and transformation of the industry can be described as drastic and no effort is spared...from directional industrial policy support, to leading companies taking the lead, to geographical indication recognition, to the management and protection of the natural water quality, soil and climate and other winemaking ecological environments, to the specification of product quality standard systems, to continuous publicity and promotion, and so on. The effect of industrial agglomeration brought about by industrial concentration is becoming more and more prominent, attracting wine companies and economic and information departments across the country to observe and learn how to use the effect of industrial agglomeration to comprehensively reduce the company's operating costs, improve corporate labor productivity, and enhance corporate competitiveness. At the same time, the liquor production area has become a beautiful landscape, and the trend of differentiation of production areas has become more and more obvious: for example, YangheSuqian Wetland Famous Wine Production Area; Bozhou Gujing Town, the core production area of Huanghuai Baijiu in Jing; Fengxiang represents Xifeng Liquor builds "Baoji" as the core production area of Fengxiang liquor in China; Fuyuxiang represents Jiugui Liquor . In the "Five Plan", it is also clearly pointed out that it will also take up the banner of revitalizing Hunan liquor and promote Xiangxi Hunan to become the core production area of China's fragrant and aromatic liquors; there are also the core production areas of Luliang and the core production areas of rice-flavored liquors in Foshan, Guangdong, etc."Producing area" has become the best way to express the quality of liquor, and "producing area" has also become an effective path for high-quality development of liquor companies. Third, value concentration and price differentiation; Judging from the development trend of mainstream liquor stalls, within 100 yuan, medium and high-end light bottles are suitable for Structural replacement of low-end boxed products; 100-300 yuan, mass boxed consumption upgrades, mass sauce-flavored intrusion; 300-800 yuan, sub-high-end sauce wine is hot, and wine-saving strategies converge; above 1,000 yuan, top famous wine and top sauce wine brands are deeply nationalized; the underlying logic behind these phenomena and trends is "value concentration." Correspondingly, the rapid rise of medium and high-end light bottles within 100 yuan is caused by the core value driving force of consumers to "remove packaging and drink quality"; Volkswagen box wine collectively jumped to 100- The 300 yuan range is mainly driven by the core value drive of "drink less, drink better"; the enthusiasm for sub-high-end brands and categories is also driven by the core value drive of the new middle class who "want both face and dignity"; the concentrated consumption of famous wines in the high-end market is a manifestation of the core value drive of the new wealthy class for "both brand and taste". In terms of price, it shows a trend of differentiation. The traditional "135 gear" has evolved into "1234568 gear". In other words, the "135" odd-numbered gear is relatively stable, and the distribution of brands and large items It is relatively clear, and the "246" even-numbered stalls are becoming more and more mature, and are also a concentrated expression of the upgrading operations of regional famous wines and provincial wine brands. We do not rule out the differential performance of famous wines and provincial wines, sauce wines and provincial wines, provincial wines and district wines in regional market competition. In short, upgrading operations and dimensionality reduction attacks are always twin brothers of price opportunities and traps. Fourth, the concentration of famous wines leads to the differentiation of regional wines; The concentration of famous wines has become an industry consensus. According to the annual reports of 19 A-share listed liquor companies in 2021, the total revenue reached 305.6 billion yuan, accounting for 50.7% of the listed liquor companies, and the net profit exceeded the 100 billion mark, reaching 108.4 billion yuan, accounting for 63.7% of the listed companies. According to agency forecasts, this trend of scale and profit concentration will continue. Corresponding to the trend of concentration of famous wines is the differentiation trend of regional liquor. If we use the sales volume and quantity of regulated wine companies to make a calculation, it is not difficult to see that the average survival line of regulated wine companies may now reach more than 600 million. Compared with five years ago, this survival line may be more than 300 million. Of course, given the differences in competitive sectors in each region, the differentiation status of regional wine companies is also different. For example, in the Jiangxi, Anhui, and Gan regions, the differentiation of regional wines is relatively weak. The CR2 of Su wine has reached 70%, and the CR2 of Anhui wine has reached 60%. Although the development of Gan wine faucets has encountered some bottlenecks, it still accounts for half of the Jiangxi market; In the second camp, the leading brands of Shaanxi wine and Hunan wine have a market share of less than 50%, basically around 30%; in the third camp, the Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang and Hubei sectors lack leading wine companies, and real estate brands have been distributed in the mid- to low-price range for a long time. The differentiation of regional wines is more obvious.
Gunsmoke 2: Old famous liquors serve as the center of power
In recent years, most of the attention of the liquor industry has been attracted by the sauce-flavor craze and the clear-flavor craze, and their rapid development is obvious to all. The specific realization is in several aspects: First, the leading role of the head brand is highlighted , for example, sauce The fragrant Maotai and the light-flavored Fenjiu; second, the development of category production areas, for example, the Maotai-flavored wine along the Chishui River and the light-flavored Fenhe River; third, the collective great leap forward of category brands, such as the Maotai-flavored "Santai" and the light-flavored "Sanfen". In addition to the rise of fragrance brands, there is another type of brand that has also entered the rapid development track, that is, the revival of old famous wines.For example, the " Xinghua Village " brand of Fenjiu Group has gained nearly 1 billion in sales; Yanghe's strategic decision to restart the "Shuanggou" old famous wine; Quanxing htm, one of the six golden flowers of Sichuan Wine l5" In the first half of 2022, its performance achieved a year-on-year growth of 38.1%; "Xifeng Wine", one of the four famous wines , had revenue of more than 8 billion yuan last year, with a year-on-year increase of more than 26%, targeting tens of billions; in addition, Guomi Dongjiu h The comprehensive revival of tml5, the " Wenjun Wine " that has returned to the Jiannanchun system, the old famous wine "Yellow Crane Tower" with the endorsement of Gujing Gong and the two-way blessing of Qingxiang Hot, is practicing the "South Tower Beifen" great fragrance strategy, Laobaigan h "Wuling Liquor" under tml5 has enjoyed the industry dividend that is hot in sauce, and its overall revenue has exceeded 1 billion. After the high-end strategy was finalized, it restarted the strategy of reviving the "Tuopai" old famous wine. At present, its performance in the North China market is remarkable. The author believes that the root cause of the rapid and comprehensive revival of many old famous wine brands is mainly due to their two core assets of "old" and "famous", that is, first, they have profound cultural heritage and long history; Second, they have high popularity, whether it is related to records in past historical materials or in modern brand height and recognition; Third, it has good quality and old wine storage capacity, which fully demonstrates the company's historical winemaking strength and strong material foundation. In the medium to long term, the author continues to be optimistic about the future market performance of famous wines. Gunsmoke 3: Digitization of the wine industry overthrows the "Internet illiterates" Under the impact of the epidemic in the past three years, a large number of offline terminal stores have been forced to close or transform. More and more commercial companies and manufacturing companies that are stuck in traditional B-side business have also felt unprecedented pressure to survive and are thinking about how to transform and develop. Undoubtedly, digitalization has become the core new driving force for the transformation and development of the wine industry. In fact, as early as more than ten years ago, the leading brands in the liquor industry, Moutai, Wuliangye and Yanghe, all began attempts and transformations in marketing digitalization, and have cooperated with major digital service providers to conduct comprehensive digital transformation pilots. At present, digital tools have been fully introduced from national famous wines to provincial leaders to regional brands. In the process of transformation, we gradually build our own digital marketing system, from the construction of cloud codes to the links with cloud merchants, from the matching of cloud stores to precise contact with consumers, to achieve full-channel cloud sales, which can not only trace product quality problems, but also effectively solve price problems, cost problems and efficiency problems, and promote effective linkage of BCs to form an integrated marketing system. Not only that, As the digital transformation of liquor companies continues to accelerate, technology updates and iterations, in addition to being applied on the sales side, have also realized the digital transformation and upgrading of production, circulation, marketing and other business links, that is, building a digital integrated service platform for the entire liquor industry chain. In the future, digital transformation will become more mature, with more complete functions, and will run through the entire industry chain, covering various fields such as product structure, terminal channels, and consumer market analysis. Capital is the weather vane of business. Wherever the popularity is high, it will go wherever it is. According to incomplete statistics, in the second half of 2022 alone, there have been more than 30 investments in the alcohol industry, with a total amount exceeding tens of billions, involving various alcohol companies such as liquor, new wines, and beer. Capital has quickly entered the alcohol industry. On the one hand, it is optimistic about the huge development prospects of the alcohol industry, and on the other hand, it is its anti-cyclical ability. At present, two large capital consortia, represented by Fuxing Department and China Resources Department, are accelerating their layout in the liquor industry.China Resources is the first large-scale capital to enter the liquor industry. It entered the industry as early as 2018 and has successively deployed Shanxi Fenjiu, Shandong Jingzhi, and Golden Seed Wine. Now it has acquired 555.19% of the equity of Jinsha Wine with a massive investment of 12.3 billion. Compared with the China Resources Department, the Fuxing Department's investment layout in the wine industry is more cautious. It first acquired two major strong-flavor wine companies, Jinhui Liquor and Shede Wine Company , and then acquired the sauce-based wine company Yelanggu. The next step may be to acquire light-flavor wine companies to improve its layout of the wine category. From the perspective of the path of capital entering the wine industry, it can basically be summarized as giving priority to integrating the best quality liquor assets, starting with listed companies, then selecting category representatives, and finally provincial leaders, thereby realizing the layout of the entire wine industry. In the future, "capital + industry" will become the main competitiveness, and mergers and acquisitions may become the best means for liquor companies to seize market share under the trend of industry concentration. More than six months have passed since the new national standard for liquor was implemented on June 1, and the liquor market has undergone earth-shaking changes. In the past period before the new national standard was officially implemented, many wine companies took precautions and developed the concept of pure grain wine in advance. Whether it was in product design, advertising slogans, or even on self-media platforms, there were overwhelming interpretations of the new national standard. Read or popularize the knowledge of pure grain wine. In the Internet era where information is completely open, a large number of consumers have received the cognitive education of pure grain wine subtly. To a certain extent, it not only guides the concept of healthy drinking, but also affects consumers’ purchasing behavior. If the new national standard has the greatest impact on bottled wine, then the greatest impact of the new national standard is on boxed wine. As early as 1996, Gujing Gongjiu launched a liquor named after "vintage". In 2007, it pioneered Gujing Gongjiu ∙ vintage puree, creating a national super single product and becoming the number one Huizhou liquor. In the following years, many wine companies used the concept of "vintage" to establish high-end brand images in the process of transformation and upgrading of high-end liquor, in order to achieve breakthroughs, such as Tanjiu, Guizhou Chun, etc.But in any case, the general trend of the development of the liquor industry with the new national standard for light bottle wine and the genuine vintage of boxed wine, on the one hand, caters to the consumption upgrade of the entire alcohol industry, and on the other hand, it also satisfies consumers' increasingly strong consumption demand for quality.
Gunsmoke 4: Capital blessing enters the market to help the leader
Gunsmoke Five: The dumbbell-shaped phenomenon in the development of the wine industry has become increasingly prominent
The wine industry has shown a development trend of "dumbbellization". The two ends of the dumbbell shape: low-end liquor and high-end liquor. One liquor market is changing to a purely material consumption attribute, and the other is changing to a purely spiritual consumption attribute.
From the perspective of output, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the peak of liquor output was in 2016, when the annual output was 13.58 million liters. Since then, the output has declined sharply. Liquor production in 2021 is only 7.1563 million liters, a full 47.3% decrease from 2016. If we look at liquor revenue and profits, the operating income of liquor companies above designated size across the country has increased from 271.3 billion yuan in 2016 to 603.3 billion yuan in 2021, and net profits have directly increased nearly five times, from 34.8 billion yuan to 170.2 billion yuan.
For the low-end liquor market, policy guidance will further restore the essence of liquor drinking. In the high-end liquor market, where prices can easily reach thousands of dollars, the judgment of good liquor has become metaphysical, and the product itself cannot represent the true value. It grows in social networks, relies on China's social and cultural soil, and is independent of the pure consumer soil on which low-end liquor relies. The product often appears in formal occasions such as business entertainment, government entertainment, and colleagues’ gatherings. As long as the status of liquor is still recognized in Chinese social occasions, there will still be room for its survival. Therefore, high-end liquor can be regarded as a purely spiritual consumption market.
Gunsmoke Six: New National Standard and True Vintage
Gunsmoke Seven: The Great Evolution of Channel Change
The trend of specialization and brand chaining of retail terminals
In terms of policies: According to the Ministry of Commerce’s 14th Five-Year Plan for alcohol circulation enterprises ("Ministry of Commerce’s Guidance on Promoting the Healthy Development of Alcohol Circulation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" Period (Draft for Comment)"), the large-scale development of alcohol circulation channels, chain operations and standardization are the main leading directions.
In terms of industry: At present, most wine companies are still based on the distribution system, but the overall trend is reflected in the reduction of distribution levels. With the trend of famous wine manufacturers actively promoting flattening, circulation wine companies are accelerating the promotion of chain franchises and new retail businesses.
E-commerce channels are booming
in 5G smart Under the background of energy and chemical industry, alcohol e-commerce has gradually evolved from the traditional B2C business around 2012 to B2B, O2O business, and then to F2C customization business, etc., and has gradually become segmented and specialized. With the impact of the epidemic in the past three years and the support of in the capital market, the development and maturity of the alcohol e-commerce business have also been accelerated.
KA channel gradually abandons the main business of OEM products and gift boxes, and opens three directions of change
The first is the transformation of famous wines, that is, actively embracing the trend of direct sales of famous wines, The second is the folk liquor , which is to upgrade the business around mass ration wine, and finally the new wine drink , which is to keep up with the international trend of new wine drinks, expand the introduction of various imported wines and low-alcohol trendy drinks such as foreign wine, pre-mixed wine , fruit wine, dew wine , whiskey , brandy and other imported wines and low-alcohol trendy drinks, and conduct joint promotion online and offline.
The group buying channel has become the first channel in the liquor industry
With the structural upgrade and consumption upgrade of the entire liquor industry, the group buying channel has become the core and most important first channel for various liquor companies. In the financial reports for the first half of 2022, 9 of the 19 listed liquor companies mentioned group buying. The potential of the group buying channel should not be underestimated. When many wine companies enter the high-end wine market, they give priority to entering through group purchasing channels. First of all, the target consumer groups of group buying are relatively concentrated, which is a circle relationship; secondly, they have strong consumption power, such as high-net-worth individuals, enterprises and institutions, government and business systems, etc. In addition, due to the high gross profit of group buying products, it can bring broader space for the development of wine companies.
Gunsmoke 8: The rising second generation of wine merchants
At present, a more realistic problem for the management of China's wine industry is the phenomenon of aging. Many wine companies and wine merchants are about to retire or retreat behind the scenes due to age and energy problems. There is an urgent need for younger, modern, and professional elites to continue and inherit the development of their wine industry, and they need to inject more innovative thinking and fresh models.
On April 12, 2022, Jiannanchun’s official website released information that Qiao Yu served as the vice chairman, general manager and legal representative of Jiannanchun Group, presiding over the company’s overall work.His father Chairman Qiao Tianming no longer holds the position of general manager. On July 7, a unique and meaningful event - the Moutai Inheritors Conference and the Moutai Dealer Commendation Conference was held grandly at the Moutai International Hotel . At the meeting, representatives of outstanding dealers presented flags to representatives of inheritors; on December 30, Vice Chairman Wang Bowei, son of Langjiu Group Chairman Xiang Junlin, delivered a year-end speech, congratulating Langjiu Group on its good results in 2022. I hope that in 2023, all colleagues will strengthen their confidence, forge ahead, and co-create, build, and share "our Langjiu"...
It can be seen that more and more second-generation wine merchants are rising rapidly. The heads of various wine companies are gradually handing over to the second generation, and wine merchants are also actively cultivating second-generation successors. They have been influenced by wine culture since they were young. They have been influenced by the wine culture while growing up. When they grow up, they have academic qualifications from prestigious universities, experience studying abroad and rich experience. After going through many hardships, at the appropriate opportunity, I took over the baton from my parents. In the future, under the leadership of the second generation of wine and business people, the development of China's wine industry will have more surprises and expectations.
Gunsmoke 9: The C-oriented wine industry grabs fans
Consumers are not only the end of the channel chain, but also the ultimate beneficiary of product value. Therefore, only maximizing contact with consumers is true precision marketing.
At present, the marketing thinking of the entire wine industry is transforming from the original traditional B-side marketing to C-side marketing. For example, Moutai has accelerated the construction of direct sales channels through the introduction of "i Moutai ", increased communication, cultivation and sales with core consumers, and gradually achieved its strategic goal of direct sales. The launch of "i Moutai" on the one hand has optimized the product structure, on the other hand it has strengthened the ability to control channels and prices, and more importantly, it has connected consumers. In the second quarter of 2022, the “i Moutai” APP created an incremental revenue of 8.462 billion yuan.
In addition, circle marketing represented by Hongke and 四Shijiufang has become the object of research and study by major wine companies and merchants in the industry. In the past, the traditional B-side model was to simply sell products to channel vendors or terminal vendors. Subsequent service efforts could not keep up and could not reach consumers. Nowadays, the new type of circle marketing breaks the traditional marketing thinking, selling products directly to KOLs or KOC in one's own life, work, and social circles, and then breaking through the circle obstacles through their relationships. The small circle becomes a large circle, and the big circle merges into the larger circle, gradually replacing the traditional B-end channel distribution with the driving force of KOL/KOC. More and more wineries are beginning to pay attention to consumer communication, and use digital tools as a carrier to achieve the transformation of C-end marketing through cross-border marketing , high-end tastings, ecological study tours, etc., thereby forming the ultimate fans of their respective brands and establishing a huge private domain traffic pool.
