(Report Producer/Author: Guotai Junan Securities, Wang Cong, Liu Kun, Wen Ziyan)
1. The development of automobile electrification and intelligence is accelerating, and the volume and price of bicycle electronic components are rising
With the continuous development of electric vehicles from MEV to BEV, and the continued penetration of intelligence, the percentage of bicycle electronics costs in electric vehicles in the total vehicle cost continues to rise. In terms of intelligence, according to the Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, in 2021, 3.9562 million new cars with L2 ADAS will be insured in my country. increased by 77.65% year-on-year. The number of new L2+ ADAS cars with insurance will be 1.6945 million. The level of autonomous driving continues to improve. In terms of electrification, according to IDC, the global penetration rate of and of electric vehicles will be close to 20% in 2022, with shipments reaching 5.225 million vehicles. It is expected to reach 12.99 million vehicles in 2025, with a CAGR of 38% from 2021 to 2025. According to IHS data, automotive electronics cost accounted for 18% in 2000 and is expected to rise to 45% by 2030. The value of bicycle electronics continues to rise.
2. Connectors: Many hardware are ushering in upgrades, and electrification brings new increments
2.1. Automobiles are the second largest downstream scenario for connectors, and are used in major automotive systems
Connectors are electronic components used for the exchange of electrical or optical signals between electronic system devices. Automobiles are the second largest application area of connectors after communications. The market size of automotive connector is second only to the communications market and is the second largest downstream application field of connectors. The applications of connectors in automobiles mainly include power systems, safety systems, on-board equipment, etc. Connector types include circular connectors, FCP connectors, I/O connectors, etc.
According to the different application scenarios of the connector in the car, the connectors in the car can be divided into high-voltage, low-voltage and high-speed connectors. The application of the three types of connectors in automobiles has their own focus. With the development of electrification, intelligence, networking and sharing of automobiles, the value of high-voltage and high-speed connectors per vehicle has increased significantly. Below we will focus on the opportunities that high-voltage and high-speed connectors have in the development of the “four modernizations” of automobiles.
2.2. High-voltage connector: When the high-voltage platform is upgraded, the connector needs to be re-selected.
New energy vehicles are upgraded to high-voltage platforms to alleviate the "mileage anxiety" problem. In the short term, the high-voltage platform can solve the problem of slow charging of electric vehicles and alleviate "range anxiety". In the long term, the high-voltage platform can improve the overall performance of the vehicle. The improvement of high-power electric drive efficiency reduces heat loss, and the smaller wire diameter can effectively save copper wire costs, save space, and achieve lightweight requirements. Taking the Audi PPE 800V high-voltage platform as an example, compared with the e-tron 400V voltage platform, the motor system size of this platform is reduced by 30%, the weight is reduced by 20%, the energy consumption loss is reduced by 50%, and the contribution to the cruising range is increased by 10%.
vehicle end upgrade to 800V platform requires re-verification and selection of electrical system components. The upgrade of electric vehicle platforms has gradually increased the requirements for high voltage resistance, insulation, electromagnetic compatibility, and thermal management of connection components under high current and high voltage. The heat resistance, pressure resistance, current carrying capacity, EMC, etc. of new energy vehicle connectors are particularly important. With the upgrade of high-voltage platforms, traditional low-voltage connectors will be replaced by high-voltage connectors, and the single-vehicle value of connectors will significantly increase. According to our research, the bicycle value of ordinary automobile low-voltage connectors is about 800 yuan, while the bicycle value of high-voltage connectors will reach 1,500 yuan. With the significant increase in value and the increase in the penetration rate of in new energy vehicles, the market size will usher in explosive growth.
2.3. High-speed connectors: Automobile intelligence and connectivity will open up space for growth
Automobile intelligence and connectivity will accelerate penetration, opening up space for growth in high-speed connectors. In November 2020, my country released the "Intelligent Connected Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0". The roadmap clearly states that in 2025, HA-level intelligent connected vehicles will enter the market and achieve commercialization in limited areas and specific scenarios. By 2030, HA-level intelligent connected vehicles will be widely used on highways and used on a large scale in some urban roads. The development of automobile intelligence and networking will use a large number of high-speed connectors.Taking ADAS as an example, the information captured by the camera transmits the data to the wiring harness through the FAKRA high-speed connector. The other end of the wiring harness is connected to the HFM connector, and then transmitted to the host through the HSD connector. Finally, the data is transmitted to the display screen through the HSD connector. Connectors used throughout the process include FAKRA, HFM and HSD. At the same time, with the increase in the number of sensors and and the centralization of automotive electronic and electrical architecture, the requirements for data transmission rate are higher. The traditional 6GHz FAKRA connector cannot meet the new demand. Mini-FAKRA will gradually replace FAKRA in the future due to its high transmission rate and small size.
2.4. The automotive connector market is huge and domestic manufacturers can expect growth.
The automotive connector market is vast and is expected to reach 57.2 billion yuan in 2024. We have measured the market size of automotive connector in my country and judged the penetration rate of new energy vehicles and the penetration rate of smart driving. We predict that the market size of my country's automotive connectors will reach 37.8 billion yuan in 2022, the market size in 2025 will be 67 billion yuan, the CAGR from 2022 to 2024 will be 22.04%, and the global automotive connector market size will reach 1,610 yuan in 2025.
Domestic manufacturers have a low share, and there is still a lot of room for domestic substitution. Due to the long product cycle, high technical barriers, and long verification cycle of automotive connectors, the market share of and is mostly occupied by foreign manufacturers. The top ones are Tyco , Yazaki, Rosenberg , etc. Domestic manufacturers have a low market share. In recent years, domestic manufacturers have made rapid progress in the connector field, producing a number of outstanding companies such as Ricoda, AVIC Optoelectronics , and Telecom Technology. For example, the high-voltage connector technical indicators of Rekoda and AVIC Optoelectronics have reached the world's first-tier level. Rekoda has been introduced into the supply chain of excellent car companies such as Tesla, NIO and other excellent car companies; the high-speed connector products of Dianlian Technology have entered Geely, Great Wall, BYD and other car companies, and their products cover FAKRA, HSD, HDCamera connectors and other products. The rapid development of domestic automobile electrification and intelligence will drive the rapid development of domestic connector companies.
3. Wiring harness: intelligence and electrification significantly increase the value of bicycles
3.1. Electrification increases the demand for high-voltage wiring harnesses
Electrification drives the technological upgrade path of high-voltage automobile wiring harnesses, which brings about an increase in the value of bicycles. automotive wiring harness provides electrical connections for the operation of various systems in the car, and is the " neural network " of the vehicle. Compared with traditional fuel vehicles, new energy vehicles using batteries as the main energy source have promoted the development path of wire harnesses with larger wire diameters and higher voltages to meet the needs of high-voltage and large-current transmission, driving up the value of bicycles. New energy vehicles mainly reduce the engine wiring harness and increase the high-voltage wiring harness. Taking the German A-class sedan as an example, the high-voltage wiring harness of a pure electric vehicle is worth about 1,500 yuan per vehicle, while the engine wiring harness used in a fuel vehicle is about 200 yuan, which greatly increases the value of the single-bike wiring harness of a pure electric vehicle. According to EV WIRE data, the value of a traditional automobile wiring harness bicycle is about 2,500, 3,500, or 4,500 yuan, while the average value of a new energy vehicle wiring harness bicycle is about 5,000 yuan, of which the high-voltage wiring harness system is worth about 2,500 yuan. In the future, the enrichment of functions such as autonomous driving and entertainment will be an important driving force for the growth of automotive wiring harness demand. Various electronic devices such as cameras, sensors, and displays installed in the vehicle require a large number of wiring harnesses to transmit power and signals. According to Aptiv estimates, compared with the length of the wire harness of the L2 level autonomous driving system, the length of the unoptimized L3 level wire harness will be more than doubled. The
wiring harness market is vast, with global and Chinese sales expected to reach 274.2 and 108.3 billion yuan respectively in 2025. We predict that the penetration rate of new energy vehicles globally and in my country will reach about 40% and 25% respectively in 2025. The value of bicycle wiring harnesses for traditional fuel vehicles and new energy vehicles is about 2,500 and 5,000 yuan respectively. We finally calculated the global and Chinese automotive wiring harness market sizes. In 2025, the global and Chinese automotive wiring harness market sizes will reach 274.2 and 108.3 billion yuan respectively, with CAGRs from 2022 to 2025 of 5.3% and 9.8% respectively.
3.2. market concentration is high, is high, and domestic manufacturers are taking advantage of the situation to accelerate the development of
. Overseas manufacturers dominate the wire harness market, and the market concentration is high, presenting an oligopoly pattern. Global automobile brands usually implement high standards and strict requirements of supplier management . The barriers to entry are high, the supplier system is relatively closed, and cooperation is relatively stable. The global automotive wiring harness market is mainly dominated by leading wire harness manufacturers such as Japan's Yazaki and Sumitomo Electric, South Korea's Yura and Kyoxin, Germany's Leoni , and Ireland's Aptiv. The market presents an oligopoly structure, with a few foreign-funded and joint venture automotive wiring harness companies occupying the majority of the market share, with CR3 and CR5 accounting for 70.9% and 81.65% respectively.
Most automotive wiring harness companies maintain stable cooperation with OEMs. Due to the strong demand for customization by downstream automobile OEMs, there is a certain degree of stickiness and high entry barriers to suppliers that have long-term supply capabilities. The supply chains of Japanese and Korean car companies are relatively closed. Japanese car companies are mainly supplied by Japan's Yazaki, Sumitomo and Fujikura, while Korean car companies are supplied by South Korea's Kexin and Yura. The supply chains of German and American car companies are relatively open. The main automotive wiring harness suppliers include Yazaki, Leoni, Aptiv, Huguang, etc. Independent car companies provide new opportunities for the rise of domestic wiring harness manufacturers. In recent years, due to cost control considerations, automobile manufacturers have intensified the trend of localized procurement of automobile parts. Compared with joint venture automobile enterprises, independent automobile enterprises are mostly supplied by local manufacturers. The rise of independent automobile enterprises has provided major opportunities for domestic wire harness manufacturers. At present, the market share of independent car companies is about 40%. New energy vehicles are in a period of heavy growth. The wave of smart driving is coming strongly. Domestic wire harness manufacturers are accelerating penetration and promoting market share increase. The main ones are Huguang Co., Ltd., Shanghai Jinting , Tianhai Group, etc.
4. Automotive PCB: Product structure upgrades are accelerating, and bicycle ASP continues to increase
As the penetration rate of smart cockpits and smart driving continues to increase, the usage of bicycle PCBs increases accordingly. As the penetration rate of smart driving further increases, automotive PCB will usher in a broader market space. The smart cockpit is an all-round upgrade of the traditional cockpit. It is a complete system composed of electronic equipment such as in-vehicle infotainment systems, streaming rearview mirrors, visual perception systems, voice interaction systems, smart seats, and rear displays. In terms of in-vehicle display, the trend of increasing the number of display blocks and large size has been formed, and the display backlight module requires the use of a large number of PCBs, pushing the automotive PCB market further upward. The current mainstream sensor selection for ADAS solutions is camera + radar . Whether it is a camera or a radar, PCB board is its basic component. The increase in the use of cameras and radars has greatly increased the proportion of PCB in the total vehicle cost. According to estimates by Zuosi Auto Research, the PCB value of the ADAS sensor of Tesla Model3 is between 536-1364 yuan, accounting for 21.4%-54.6% of the total vehicle PCB value.
4-8 Layer boards are still the main boards used in automotive PCBs, and the proportions of HDI and FPC have increased. Comparing the structure of automobile PCB boards in 2018 and 2020, it is not difficult to find that although the proportion has declined, multi-layer boards (more than 2 layers) are still the mainstream PCB boards for automobiles, accounting for 51% in 2018 to 45% in 2020. Correspondingly, the proportions of HDI and FPC have gradually increased, with the proportion of HDI increasing from 7.5% in 2018 to 11.5% in 2020, and FPC increasing from 12% to 15%. With the development of automotive electronics and the limitation of internal space, the requirements for PCB boards are increasing. We expect that the ratio of HDI to FPC will further increase in the future.
Automotive electronics promotes the accelerated upgrade of hard boards. PCB hard boards are widely used in automobile tire pressure detection systems, battery monitoring modules, car body charging ports, inverter control, vehicle ABS systems, automobile air conditioning systems, navigation systems, automobile exposure systems, etc.Traditional automobile hard boards are mostly ordinary multi-layer boards and double-sided boards. With the increase in the number of electronic components carried in the vehicle and the high integration of some components such as the vehicle control system, higher requirements have been placed on the wiring density, heat dissipation capacity, reliability, etc. of automotive boards. Automotive boards are being upgraded in the direction of multi-layering, high density, thinning, and high frequency (for millimeter wave radar and lidar). 1) Body control safety system: high-frequency signal transmission requires the use of high-frequency materials; 2) Power engine control: requires the use of high voltage, high current, and thick copper processing technology; 3) Lighting: the use of LED lights requires the use of metal substrates for heat dissipation; 4) Vehicle communications and interior decoration: shifting from multi-layer boards to high-density interconnect boards.
New energy vehicle soft boards are penetrating rapidly. Compared with traditional wire harnesses, FPC has the advantages of safety, lightweight, flexible process, automated production, etc., and can meet the high energy density and low cost needs of power battery . The FPC soft board can be regarded as the nervous system of the power battery BMS. Together with other electronic components, it mainly plays the following functions: monitors the voltage and temperature of the power battery cells; connects data collection and transmission and has its own overcurrent protection function; protects the power battery cells and automatically disconnects from abnormal short circuits; extends the service life of the power battery, etc.
5. Power semiconductors: electrification drives both volume and price, and domestic manufacturers continue to make breakthroughs
From ICE (internal combustion vehicles) to MEVs (mild hybrid vehicles), and then from MEVs to BEVs (battery electric vehicles), the number of power devices inside a single electric vehicle continues to increase. Coupled with the number of power devices contained in supporting equipment charging piles, the scale of power devices driven by bicycles has increased significantly. Power semiconductors are specifically used in electric vehicles for on-board charging systems OBC, battery management BMS, water cooling systems, high-voltage loads, high-voltage to low-voltage DCDC, main drives, etc. Taking the on-board charging system OBC as an example, a typical OBC consists of multiple cascade stages, namely input rectification, power factor correction (PFC), DC-DC conversion, isolation, output rectification and output filtering. It requires the use of more than 16 power devices, involving 11 kinds of power devices such as superjunction MOSFET, rectifier , gate driver, 650V high-frequency IGBT, etc.
From ICE to BEV, the value share of power semiconductor bicycles continues to rise. According to statistics from IHS Marikit and strategy analytics, the power semiconductors in ICE (internal combustion vehicles) are worth US$17, accounting for 5.49% of the total cost; the power semiconductors in MEVs are worth US$90, accounting for 16.95% of the total costs; the power semiconductors in PMEVs are worth US$305, accounting for 38.85% of the total costs; the power semiconductors in BEVs are worth US$350, accounting for 45.16% of the total costs. From ICE to BEV, the value of power semiconductors increased by US$333, and the proportion increased by 39.67pct.
Charging infrastructure is an essential supporting facility for electric vehicles, and it also contains a large number of power devices. Taking a typical DC charging pile as an example, the three-phase AC 380V input voltage is connected in parallel through two Vienna AC/DC circuits to obtain an 800V DC bus voltage, and then passes through two full-bridge LLC DC/DC circuits to output 250V to 950V (or 750V) high voltage for charging electric vehicles. The entire topological circuit contains more than 48 power devices. The higher the charging efficiency of the charging infrastructure, the higher the charging power requirements, and the more power devices are required. According to Infineon data, as the power of the DC charging system increases, the charging time continues to decrease, but the value of the power devices contained in each DC charging system is on an upward trend. The power devices contained in the 20kW charging system are mainly Si-based and are worth US$40; the power devices contained in the 150kW charging system are also mainly Si-based and are worth US$300, a value increased by 75 times; while the power devices contained in the 350kW charging system are SiC-based and are worth US$3,500, a value that is 87.5 times greater than that of the 20kW charging system. Therefore, the power devices required for the entire electric vehicle system include not only those owned by the electric vehicle itself, but also those required in the charging pile. Therefore, the power device market driven by the development of electric vehicles exceeds the incremental market calculated based solely on the value of power devices in electric vehicles.
6. Investment analysis
6.1. Connectors and wire harnesses
As the nervous system in automobiles, connectors and wire harnesses have significantly increased their value in the wave of intelligent, electrified, connected and shared automobiles. The performance of domestic connector and wiring harness companies has grown rapidly in recent years. The current intelligentization and electrification process of automobiles is still in a rapid growth stage, and the penetration rate is at a low level. Domestic connector and wiring harness related companies are also expected to usher in long-term development.
6.2. Power semiconductor
With the advancement of vehicle electrification, the usage of power semiconductors in bicycles will continue to increase, and domestic power companies will usher in new opportunities for development. For electric vehicles, the voltage and average power of power batteries have also increased significantly, driving the usage and value of products such as IGBT module and MOSFET to also increase significantly. We are optimistic about domestic power companies that currently have a deep presence in automotive MOSFET and IGBT products and continue to expand third-generation semiconductor product categories.
6.3. Copper clad laminates and PCB
New energy vehicles continue to penetrate, the demand for automotive boards is increasing and the product structure is expected to be upgraded. Domestic automotive PCB companies and upstream copper clad laminate companies are expected to benefit deeply. Under the trend of intelligence/electrification, the value of bicycle PCBs has increased and created demand for high-end products such as high-end HDI/high-frequency radar boards. The usage of FPC for bicycle soft boards is expected to exceed 100. Among them, the demand for soft boards for battery management systems is rapidly increasing. Domestic companies are actively strengthening cooperation with battery manufacturers and will benefit deeply in the future.
6.4. Components and smart equipment
Consumer electronics manufacturing companies are actively developing automotive Tier1/Tier 1.5 and other businesses around the intelligentization, electrification and networking of automobiles. Apple industry chain platform manufacturing companies will make great achievements in the field of smart cars. Electronic manufacturing companies that have been deeply involved in the Apple supply chain for many years have significant advantages: (1) They have excellent precision processing capabilities and have a large margin to adapt to the requirements of the smart car industry chain; (2) Apple products have high requirements, and companies whose supply chain product stability and reliability have passed Apple's inspection will expand to car-grade products faster, and such companies as Luxshare Precision / USI Electronics /Pengding Holdings/ Dongshan Precision , etc. Many products of platform companies have already passed vehicle regulatory certification; (3) Fruit chain companies are significantly better than traditional automobile supply chains, emerging new energy supply chains, and Android supply chains in terms of supply chain control, cost control, delivery capabilities, problem-solving capabilities, , and flexibility. Based on the above three major advantages, we believe that the Apple industry chain manufacturing company will capture more incremental space in the smart car blue ocean market.
(This article is for reference only and does not represent any investment advice on our part. If you need to use relevant information, please refer to the original text of the report.)
Selected report source: [Future Think Tank]. "Link"
