Economic recovery , the metal industry is facing the east wind, and these three major areas may become a golden period of industry development?
Recently, there has been an increasingly obvious economic recovery trend. The metal industry's investment expectations have also risen with the market's expectations of the "end point" of interest rate hike and the duration of the duration, but the room for continuous upward push for the real interest rate is limited.
As far as the current stage is concerned, the following three fields will usher in more opportunities:
The supply and demand of the industrial metal industry remains balanced, and inventory is in a historical position
In the future, industrial metals will be expected to show recovery growth on the supply side in 2023, but the growth rate is limited.
From the demand side, with the continuous favorable support of domestic real estate, this will drive the post-cycle commodity of industrial metal real estate, and on the demand side, it will show a relatively balanced state of strong domestically, weak foreign countries, strong domestic demand and weak export chains.
2023 expects that in a situation where copper, aluminum and zinc are both tight balanced supply and demand, and there is no inventory pressure, industrial metal inventory will remain the norm next year, and prices can also be maintained at a relatively high position.
The supply and demand contradiction in the new energy metal industry will gradually ease, and the price center will gradually move downward
From the perspective of lithium ore , it is expected that the global lithium resource supply increase in 2023 will be around 28 tons of LCE; from the demand side, the current market estimates the global production and sales volume of new energy vehicle next year will be around 13 million vehicles, so from this year's supply and demand shortage will turn to oversupply in 2023, but the estimated range will not be too obvious.
From the perspective of cobalt ore , the supply and demand of cobalt this year are both weak, which has led to weak cobalt prices. It is expected that after the expansion and release of these two world-class projects ( Glencore Mutanda copper and cobalt mines and Luoyang Molybdenum ) from 2022 to 2023, the supply and demand contradiction is expected to ease to equilibrium state. Under this state, the instability of supply will have a certain impact on the cobalt price.
From a medium- and long-term perspective, we must maintain an optimistic attitude towards cobalt prices, and the price of electric cobalt will be expected to run at the center of around 350,000 yuan/ton.
Rare earth Permanent magnet industry resource integration will be increased, and the price is expected to be high in prosperity
From a short-term perspective, the demand of the rare earth industry is in a weak state, but the supply and demand of the industry are balanced, and the price has always been in a strong situation.
In the medium and long term, the fundamentals of in this industry have undergone fundamental changes. Since the black rare earths are cleared, the supply is orderly, and the industry is in a highly concentrated state. Rare earth mining and smelting will also be strictly controlled according to the quota.
Then, as strategic metal , in medium and long-term expectations, a reasonable price can fully reflect the scarcity of resources and reasonable compensation for ecological and environmental losses, and the natural value is expected to be revaluated.
, and the supply and demand of permanent magnet materials are both prosperous. neodymium iron boron permanent magnet material, as the third generation rare earth material, is also the best magnetic performance and the best comprehensive performance of magnetic material. It is currently widely used in emerging fields such as wind power generation , new energy vehicles and automotive parts, energy-saving and frequency converter air conditioning, and the industry has a very broad prospect.
These five leading companies are expected to usher in the gold development period (not investment advice, for reference only)
, Zijin Mining
is one of the companies with the largest reserves of gold, copper and zinc resources. It is the second largest lead concentrate manufacturer, the second largest zinc concentrate manufacturer, and the fifth largest copper concentrate manufacturer. The company's overseas assets are mainly the cobalt mines in the Congo (District of Democratic Republic of Congo (Dragon) Coluvezi copper and cobalt mine.
, Shenhuo shareholders 4
coal and aluminum dual main businesses, the main products of aluminum business are alumina , electrolytic aluminum and electrolytic aluminum deep processing products, etc.; the company's clean energy electrolytic aluminum production capacity has gradually increased, the total cost is far lower than the industry average, and the profitability is improved.
3, Northern Rare Earth
Company is the largest light rare earth product supplier in China and even the world. It mainly produces and sells rare earth raw materials products, rare earth functional material products and some rare earth terminal application products; the company's Baotou Rare Earth Research Institute is the only national-level rare earth professional research institution in China.
4, Tibet Mount Everest
intends to acquire the target of LithiumX Energy Corp, an overseas listed company focusing on the exploration and development of lithium resources. The core assets are the SDLA lithium mine project of its wholly-owned subsidiary ; the company's main products are lead concentrate (including silver), zinc concentrate and copper concentrate (including silver).
5, Sotong Development
The company's main business is the research and development, production and sales of pre-baked anode for electrolytic aluminum, and is the largest independent commercial pre-baked anode manufacturer in China; it plans to invest in the first phase of the 50,000 tons of lithium-ion battery anode material integration project.
(Disclaimer: The analysis content comes from the Internet and does not constitute investment advice. Investors are requested to make independent judgments based on different market conditions)
