01 This week's market list
This week's major indexes opened low and closed high. In the end, the Shanghai Composite Index closed up 1.76%, the Shenzhen Composite Index closed up 2.89%, the ChiNext Index closed up 3.20% and ended the weekly line 3 consecutive negatives, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 2.52%. In terms of the
sector, the increase list is tourism (17.26%), hotel and catering (11.39%), diversified finance (8.33%), and winemaking (7.91%), while the decline list is ships (-2.87%), coal (-1.62%), and electricity (-0.82%). In terms of trading volume and capital, the average daily volume of the market this week increased slightly from 800 billion to 900 billion compared with last week, with net inflow of northbound funds of about 22.9 billion, and the balance of financing increased slightly, and the volume was relatively healthy.
news has a relatively large amount of information this week. The most important thing is undoubtedly the loosening of real estate equity financing on Monday, which directly triggered the real estate market on Tuesday. In addition, the expected slowdown in the rate hike of the Federal Reserve has gradually increased, which has played a positive role in the moderate market. The continuous optimization of epidemic prevention policies in various places has also stimulated the recovery expectations of the tourism and catering industry, especially the large-scale relaxation in Guangzhou has greatly released everyone's panic about the blooming of the epidemic; after the trading session on Friday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges formulated and issued a new round of three-year action plan to promote the improvement of the quality of listed companies, clarifying transactions The timetable, roadmap, and task book for the work carried out, the undervaluation sector of is expected to continue to be lively next week; real estate tycoons also appeared on the board of directors on Friday, focusing on setting the goal of 300,000 units for the month of guaranteed delivery, giving the real estate market a sigh of relief that is suspected of one day... etc.
This week's short composition and rumors of subsidies for new energy vehicles will be extended to 2023, driving a sharp rise in the automobile sector on Wednesday. Regardless of whether the subsidy news is true, the delay of purchase tax to 2023 is a foregone conclusion, which can save nearly 10% of the purchase tax cost, which itself has a great benefit to new energy vehicles.
02 This week's fund market review
This week's fund performance is undoubtedly the strongest in Hong Kong stock allocation direction. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose by 6.27% weekly, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 10.81%. Therefore, the top 10 mixed funds this week's increase in the top 10 increases exceeded 10%. Among them, the configurations of 7 are all Hong Kong stock themes. The other three Taixin industry (including 2 A and C shares) and Huafu Flexible Allocation are mainly mainly based on hotel, tourism, and media configurations, and have also recorded good performance.
In the past November, the entire Hang Seng Index rose by 26.62%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose by 33.15%. This rebound is so large. If you can buy it, you will naturally make a fortune. But don’t forget that even after the sharp rise in November, the Hang Seng Index still remains -20% in the past four years, and the Hang Seng Technology Index has fallen by 31% year-on-year (the highest drop of 52% this year), especially the major weighted stocks Tencent has reached -55% this year, and is still -33% so far, from a high of 758 to 198 blocks in October, a drop of 75%. It can be said that it is cut in half and then cut in half. The same trend of
is also copied on Internet Hong Kong stock listed giants such as Meituan and Alibaba .
Let’s take a look at the fund’s increase in the past month. It is also the direction of Hong Kong stock allocation, with a rebound of basically above 20% or even 30%. Even so, the average decline this year is still around 25%.
Let’s look at the recent decline list, which is basically the growth track. However, even though it has fallen 10% in the past month, the Hong Kong stock market has seen a 30% decline since the beginning of this year and rebounded by 30%. It is still slightly better at the moment, and it is basically around -20%.
So don’t worry about which direction has a huge increase in the short term. They will be much worse than when they fall. How many people can switch to hot-spot style tracks at any time? From coal at the beginning of the year to real estate in March, to new energy and military industry in May, and finally the wave of medicine in October, real estate and Hong Kong stocks in November, if they can be caught from beginning to end, they will be even more Buffett than Buffett , and their returns have completely subverted the scope of investment.
's growth track this year fell to the end of April after the beginning of the year, and rebounded sharply until July. It then fell to the present day. It can be said to be a roller coaster market and finally returned to the fate of -20%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300's decline this year is only about 20%.
If you want to obtain excess returns relative to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, either time and replenish positions, or buy the right style to switch . is much easier than the opportunity to switch styles, timing and replenish positions are much easier for ordinary investors and more operational.
Because it is difficult to judge the short-term direction through existing information. When you react afterward, the good buying points have passed, and it is not clear whether they can continue. Chasing up and selling down is a taboo in investment. Although sometimes there is a certain hit rate, those who have tried it will know how high this hit rate is.
On the contrary, timing or replenishing positions seems simpler and "brainless". This logic may be more inclined to "national destiny" or long-term economic expectations. As for whether it is a track or tradition, value or growth, it does not matter, because the economy itself has a certain cyclical nature, and the sector will also have rotation, 30 years, 30 years, Hexi. No matter how bad the industry is, it will have a spring time, or a brief violent rebound. No matter how good the industry is, it will be colder. Capital will always fade away. Whether to visit this place or take turns to hype, or real yyds, only time can verify these.
03 Tracking
This week and last week's market has reversed. Last week's bond market rose and stock market fell. This week, the stock market rose and the bond market fell. The performance of the large portfolio is the big consumer sector and overseas Vietnamese market (the two major indexes in Vietnam rose by nearly 10% this week). New Energy also rebounded this week but was not particularly strong, mainly driven by the positive effects of the automobile and vehicle sector. The reduction in silicon material prices is also a relatively good benefit for downstream companies in photovoltaics and . In terms of the
combination, this week also rose to a certain extent compared with last week. The growth track is not so obvious. The balanced strategy and the stable strategy performed slightly better, mainly due to the contribution of the combination of these two strategies: real estate, finance and some Hong Kong stocks holdings .
2 is coming to an end. The last month is actually crucial to the ranking sprint of major funds. Although the current market is relatively chaotic and I don’t know which direction to pull, overall, I am still quite confused, whether it is ordinary investors, fund managers, or sell-side institutions.
By next year, this account will also consider continuing to optimize the tracked products. After all, there are too many tracked varieties and cannot write them. They will continue to focus on some growth tracks and low-retracement varieties.
The market next year may be more optimistic about the consumption areas related to economic recovery and the direction of big finance. There are still opportunities to grow, but you have to lower your expectations.
is still the same old saying. If you are optimistic and agree, just hold it firmly.
or above funds are for tracking and analysis only and do not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, so be cautious when investing!
