Oil price drop further! On December 1, it is expected that the domestic refined oil price will be lowered by 430 yuan/ton on December 5, and a liter of oil is expected to be lowered by 0.33-0.39 yuan per liter.
The day before, international oil prices rebounded after a three-week decline. WTI US crude oil prices and Brent crude oil prices successively rebounded to the 80 and 85 yuan marks. The rebound in international oil prices also led to a reduction in the domestic refined oil price drop, but international oil prices fell again recently. As of press time, Brent crude oil prices fell by 0.31 yuan/liter, and WTI US crude oil prices fell by 0.23 yuan/liter. Affected by this, the decline in oil prices further expanded to 430 yuan/ton.
Recently, there is still a lot of information about the market that is favorable to oil prices, including the sharp decline in US crude oil inventories, the USD index weakening, OPEC + an average daily production cut of 2 million barrels, etc., which will provide strong support for international oil prices. Institutions predict that with the decline in international oil prices, major domestic oil-producing countries may further reduce oil production to boost oil prices. The oil price adjustment is at 24:00 on December 5. Including there are still three working days today. Even if oil prices rise continuously in the next three days, it is difficult to change the state of the decline in the comprehensive change rate of international crude oil. Therefore, the reduction of oil prices on December 5 can be confirmed, but the extent of the reduction may change.
There will be two more opportunities for oil price adjustment in 2022. After the reduction on December 5 and December 19, domestic oil prices will be "two consecutive declines", but the difficulty of "three consecutive increases" is relatively high.
After reading the oil price, let’s talk about the changes in domestic pig prices, grain prices and sheep prices.
1. Pig prices "one step and three turns"
At the end of November, as pork consumption rebounded, the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises increased, the growth of pig demand changed, pig prices stopped falling and rebounded, and there were many remarks about pig prices rebounding, but the "slap in the face" always came so quickly. The quote in the early morning of December 1 was still raised by 0.01 points, and the morning quote turned to a decline. According to pig dealers, pig prices in Henan were lowered by 0.3 yuan, Anhui was lowered by 0.4 yuan, and Jiangsu was lowered by 0.4 yuan. The rise in pig prices did not go smoothly, but "one step and three turns".
I think the difficulty of rising pork prices is related to these factors:
- 1. Although the pork price fell by 20% compared to the high in October, it is still at a relatively high price, which is not conducive to pork consumption.
- 2. Although pickled wax has started, due to the impact of the epidemic, experts predict that the demand for pickled wax will drop by 20% this year compared with previous years.
- 3. Pig prices have rebounded slightly, and farmers seized the opportunity to sell pigs and pursued safety.
Recently, news that pig prices are about to rise sharply on December 15 were reported in the market. is negative about this news . It is undeniable that as the positive effects of pork consumption begin, pig prices are likely to rebound slightly. However, considering that the supply of standard pigs is relatively sufficient, big fat still exists. Coupled with the influence of factors such as the decrease of 20% of terminal consumption compared with previous years, pig prices are unlikely to rise sharply. The author believes that continuing to press the column will only increase risks and will not bring higher returns to yourself.
2. Grain prices have cooled down
Recently, corn and wheat prices have cooled down one after another, and prices have both dropped to varying degrees. Among them, under the influence of the arrival of Shandong deep processing enterprises, the company lowered the acquisition price by 0.5-2 points.
This wave of price reduction was actually long ago as people expected. We mentioned before that although corn production cuts this year, and the demand on the feed side is at a relatively high level to support corn prices, the key to the corn price being able to exceed 1.5 yuan, 1.55 yuan and 1.6 yuan in a short period of time is that the epidemic and weather affect the arrival of deep processing enterprises. Once the arrival volume increases, the current consumer market will find it difficult to support such a high price, and corn prices will inevitably fall.
However, it is expected that the downward adjustment is like cooling, only a short-term adjustment, and there is still hope to run at a high level in the future.
- 1. The current inventory of deep processing enterprises is relatively low, and there is still a need to replenish the inventory before the Spring Festival.
- 2. After the price of corn is reduced, it will inevitably arouse grassroots farmers' enthusiasm for price support and reluctance to sell.
- 3. Wheat and corn prices affect each other.
Although the decline in wheat prices and the decline area are not as large as corn, some flour making companies have also begun to lower the acquisition prices. The reduction in wheat prices was affected by the decline in corn prices on the one hand, and on the other hand, because after the wheat prices rose, the willingness of grassroots farmers and dealers to ship, the inventory of flour companies was replenished, and the demand for terminal flour was not affected by significant improvement for the time being.
The subsequent wheat prices are likely to show a "big, stable, and small decline". will gradually improve due to flour demand. In addition, poor transportation will also affect the amount of wheat to a certain extent. The increase in prices of by-products such as bran will also provide certain support for the high price of wheat.
Sheep prices are heartbroken
Domestic sheep prices have fallen one after another in recent days, making the already low sheep prices "injured". The current domestic sheep prices are around 12.5 yuan, and farmers are struggling to make it difficult for them to take this price. Faced with this price, sheep farmers generally responded to it more and more disheartening.
First, the sheep price has been sluggish for nearly a year. Previously, farmers all placed their hopes on the peak of consumption in winter, but the current price is basically the same as half a year ago.
Second, it’s okay if the price is sluggish. The key is that live sheep sales in some areas still encounter problems, because transportation is not smooth, and the sales of live sheep in some areas have also slowed down to varying degrees, which further aggravates the losses of farmers.
Third, the price of sheep is sluggish, but the price of mutton remains high. Farmers lose money, but sheep dealers and slaughterhouses make money.
Fourth, the industry infers that the price of sheep will improve until the middle of next year, which means that the price of sheep will continue to be sluggish for half a year.
