is now in the winter storage period, and the price increase of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphorus fertilizer is like a wave. Driven by this, channel dealers began to enter the market to get goods. But at the same time, we can’t help but be wary of : Will we repeat the mistake of rising and falling in the future?
Let’s first analyze the root cause of this round of price increase. It has to be said that the recent price increase in winter fertilizer storage is reasonable.
First look at the cost. Take phosphorus fertilizer as an example. Objectively speaking, the price of phosphate ore remains high. At present, the quotation of 30% phosphate ore is stable at more than 1,000 yuan per ton, up more than half of the year-on-year. This is a high cost pressure for phosphate fertilizer companies, and in order to digest costs, it is reasonable to increase the price. In the early stage, the phosphorus fertilizer production companies stopped quoting, and soon the industry realized that they were waiting for the winter storage to increase their prices in order to make up for the previous operating losses.
followed by the exit. According to reports, large phosphate fertilizer companies in Yunnan, Hubei and Sichuan applied for a new judicial inspection of phosphate fertilizer export quota of nearly 400,000 tons, and the export expectations of phosphate fertilizer companies have increased.
again look at the requirements. Although has entered a critical period of winter storage, the company's production capacity did not follow up in time. At present, the operating rate of phosphate fertilizer is around 40%. Northeast region winter storage has started, social inventory is insufficient, and market demand suddenly increases, resulting in a bullish phosphate fertilizer.
last look at import. domestically implements the policy of "maintaining supply and stabilizing prices" and has become a low point in fertilizer price. Except for potassium fertilizer , foreign nitrogen fertilizer, phosphorus fertilizer and compound fertilizer have no import price advantages, resulting in the total amount of imported fertilizers also decreasing. In addition, this year, the Federal Reserve continued to reduce the balance sheet and hike interest rates, and the US dollar appreciated, which was not conducive to imports. Relevant statistics show that this year, the imported compound fertilizer decreased by nearly 400,000 tons year-on-year compared with .
Although this round of price increases have certain market rationality, behind the scenes, we must also be vigilant about the hype factors. Price speculation generally has a "trilogy". We might as well compare it to observe whether there is any human speculation behind the price increase in winter storage.
First, public opinion speculation and create an atmosphere: analyzes the market, analyzes the situation, from domestic to foreign countries, from supply to demand, from cost to policy, from market favorable to severe situation, is well-informed, complicated, creating a tense atmosphere.
then rise and lead the way: raises the price in groups, and I will also raise it if you raise it, rush to the forefront, not willing to fall behind, act according to the opportunity, do not miss the opportunity, and never come again.
then chased the rise and accumulated a lot of momentum: Your nitrogen fertilizer has risen, and my phosphorus fertilizer has risen, and my potassium fertilizer and compound fertilizer can't fall behind. It's natural that I rush to raise prices.
Fertilizer is an industry that concerns the national economy and people's livelihood. In addition to being influenced by the invisible hand of the market, we must also see the management of the government's tangible hand. If human factors cause the price of fertilizers to deviate from a reasonable range or be disorderly and turbulent, in order to ensure spring farming production, prevent "high prices from hurting farmers", and ensure food security, the state may tighten export inspections, or temporarily prohibit the export of nitrogen and phosphorus fertilizers. Moreover, my country has a serious overcapacity of nitrogen fertilizer and phosphorus fertilizer production. If various nitrogen fertilizer and phosphorus fertilizer factories increase their production capacity, it is not impossible to stabilize prices or curb price increases.
Faced with the current price increase in winter fertilizer storage, as a production enterprise, be sure to remain rational and not follow the trend and raise prices. For dealers and traders, it is necessary to be vigilant about the occurrence of "beating the drum and passing the flowers" in the market and operations. When the game ended, the final participants became the takeovers and were trapped at a high price. Therefore, it is necessary to remind you that if you want to take advantage of the opportunity of winter storage and stock up on the market, there will definitely be risks. You cannot have a long-term speculative mentality and calculations of taking the opportunity to speculate.
Source: Agricultural Info Guide, author Wang Genjie
[Disclaimer]: The content of this article is for learning and communication only, and does not have any commercial purpose. The copyright belongs to the original author. If you have any questions, please contact us in time for processing; this article only represents the author's personal views, does not constitute investment opinions, and does not represent the position of this platform. Readers are advised to pay attention to the discussions and views in the article.
