Although OPEC and the International Energy Agency have successively lowered their oil demand expectations, the situation in Eastern Europe has once again become tense due to the impact of Poland border, and the US dollar index has fallen continuously and hit a new low since August 15. International crude oil prices recovered from partial declines on Tuesday. The price of Brent crude oil has approached $94/barrel again, but on Wednesday, API gasoline inventories rose nearly 1.7 million barrels, and the rise of crude oil price came to an abrupt end.
Domestic oil price adjustment ushered in the statistics of the last three windows today. One of the neither good nor bad news is that the average price of crude oil is still lower than the reference price, and the corresponding adjustment amount has further dropped by 5 yuan/ton. The overall decline has not yet touched the adjustment red line, and the expectation of oil price adjustment is still not adjusted for the time being.
The oil price statistics for the seventh working day show that the crude oil change rate negatively increased to -0.53%, and the corresponding expected decline of the adjustment amount is 20 yuan/ton. This is the fifth consecutive working day of adjustment expectations that the adjustment will remain unadjusted (up, decline is less than 50 yuan/ton). The oil price has only occurred once this year, and this situation has occurred for the first time.
This oil price adjustment will be launched on time on November 21, and the corresponding adjustment will be initiated based on the statistically measured performance of the adjusted amount. However, judging from the performance of crude oil prices during the trading session on Wednesday, the decline in the adjusted amount may still exceed 50 yuan/ton before the price adjustment window is launched.
At the beginning of this week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its oil demand expectations for the fourth consecutive time. The lowered part also included 2023. Crude oil prices fell as a result of this Monday. In the following meeting, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the oil inventories of OECD were at the lowest level since 2004, boosting crude oil prices. The International Energy Agency's oil market report in November also showed that OPEC's production is still lagging behind the quota target (1 million barrels per day).
In addition, the US PPI weakened. This PPI data was released on the basis of the US CPI lower than expected last week. The signs of weakening price pressure have led to the market speculation that the Federal Reserve's tightening policy may not be as serious as expected before the data was released. The expectation that the Federal Reserve will become less radical in the interest rate hike cycle next year has increased, which has also increased the market's view that the global economic growth prospects may be better than previously thought, and risk sentiment has improved some.
The evolution of the situation in Eastern Europe once again shifts the market's focus to the possibility of further restriction on crude oil supply, and the increase in volatility in the crude oil market will help support the rebound in crude oil prices.
Fitch Solutions expects the average price of Brent crude oil this year to be $102/barrel, the average price is $95/barrel in 2023, the average price in 2024 and 2025 is $88/barrel, and the average price in 2026 is $85/barrel.
However, the forecast report last month showed that the average price of Brent this year is US$105/barrel, US$100/barrel in 2023, US$88/barrel in 2024 and 2025, and US$85/barrel in 2026. The
report also mentioned that the downward adjustment reflects weakening prices, bearish sloping market sentiment, and deteriorating macroeconomic environment in recent months.
11-17th National Gasoline No. 92 and 95 are now sold for
