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· Summary ·
10, changes in the domestic and international situation brought short-term pressure to the economy. On the one hand, epidemics are frequent and circulating in various parts of the country, which has had a certain impact on the service industry, contact consumer industries, etc. related to personnel flow. On the other hand, overseas is affected by high inflation and weak demand, and my country's export growth rate has fallen rapidly, which has had a certain impact on production and manufacturing investment. Looking forward, there is still great uncertainty in the impact of the epidemic, the effect of real estate policies remains to be seen, exports continue to decline, and the economy is still under pressure in the future. However, short-term pressure will not change our long-term confidence in our economy.
Production: downstream industries are weak
Production growth rate declined slightly . In October, industrial added value grew by 5.0% year-on-year, down 1.3 percentage points from September. This is mainly because the local epidemic in China has repeatedly restricted supply chain transportation since October, and the decline in foreign demand dragged down export-related industries. From the perspective of seasonal adjustment month-on-month , 's growth rate in October was 0.33%, which is relatively low compared with the same period in previous years.
The growth rate of mid-to-upstream industries is relatively high, while the production of downstream industries is relatively weak . Among them, although the production growth rate of the automobile industry has declined slightly, it still remains high; the production growth rate of the upstream industries such as electrical machinery, and upstream industries such as steel, chemicals, and nonferrous metals ranks relatively high, which is mainly due to the "double limit and double control" policy in the same period last year, which makes the base relatively low. The added value of the downstream textile, metal products, agricultural and sideline food and rubber and plastic products industry showed a negative year-on-year increase, mainly due to the relatively weak industry demand.
Service industry production is still under pressure. October service industry production index increased by 0.1% year-on-year, and fell for the second consecutive month. Service production continued to weaken, mainly because local epidemics occur frequently in various places, and offline personnel flows within and between cities are restricted, which has certain obstacles to the restoration of the service industry.
unemployment rate remained basically the same. October urban survey unemployment rate was 5.5%, the same as the previous month. The urban survey unemployment rate in 31 large cities was 6.0%, an increase from September, mainly due to the relatively severe epidemic situation in some large cities such as Guangzhou in October. Among them, the unemployment rates aged 16-24 and 25-59 are both the same as before, but the youth unemployment rate is still at a relatively high level and further efforts are needed to implement employment policies.
Consumption : Online consumption is eye-catching
Consumption growth rate declines. , the total retail sales of consumer goods fell by 0.5% year-on-year, turning from positive to negative compared with September, down 3 percentage points, down for the second consecutive month; the total retail sales above the limit fell by 0.5% year-on-year, down 6.6 percentage points from September. Judging from the quarterly adjustment month-on-month growth rate of social retail consumption in October was -0.68%, the first negative value in the same period of previous years. The weak consumption performance in October was due to the relatively high base in the same period last year, and on the other hand, it was due to the frequent outbreaks of epidemics in various places in October, which had certain restrictions on consumption.
From the perspective of consumption categories, contact consumption continues to decline, and online consumption is performing well. The epidemic affected the flow of people, and contact consumption further declined. In October, catering revenue and offline consumption fell by 7.8% and 8.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 6.6 and 6.4 percentage points from the previous month, and commodity retail increased by 0.5% year-on-year, a slight decline of 2.5 percentage points. Benefiting from the launch of the "Double 11" early promotional activities in late October, online consumption has improved significantly, and the year-on-year growth rate rose to 22.1%, the highest since February 2021.
Look at in terms of industry.The consumption growth rate of industries such as medicines, food and beverages among essential consumption is the highest, while the decline in tobacco and alcohol has narrowed. Among optional consumption, real estate chain consumption such as home appliances, audio and video, building materials, furniture, etc. performed relatively poorly, with year-on-year declines of 14.1%, 8.7 and 6.6%, respectively. In addition, the consumption of communication equipment fell by 8.9% year-on-year, or because the new mobile phone issuance date was lower last year, the base was higher. The impact of the policy gradually faded, and the growth rate of automobile consumption fell by 10.3 percentage points to 3.9%, but it still maintained positive growth.
Investment: Real estate drags down still greatly
Investment growth rate declines. October fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate was 5.8%, continuing to rebound slightly by 0.1 percentage point from September, and the year-on-year growth rate for the month was 5.0%, down 1.6 percentage points. Judging from the quarterly adjustment month-on-month growth rate in October this year was the lowest level in the same period in previous years.
From the perspective of sub-items, the drag on real estate investment has further expanded, and the contribution of manufacturing and infrastructure investment has decreased. October's year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing and broad infrastructure investment was 6.9% and 12.8% in the month, down 3.8 and 3.5 percentage points from September, respectively. The growth rate of narrow infrastructure (excluding electricity) fell to 9.4%. Real estate investment still dragged down the overall investment, but the decline expanded by 4.0 percentage points to 16.1%.
Infrastructure investment growth rate is still at a relatively high level, but it has a slight decline in . The issuance and use of local special bonds in the early stage has accelerated, and the effective injection of funds for policy-based development financial instruments has enabled infrastructure investment to maintain a relatively high year-on-year growth rate. However, due to the impact of the local epidemic, the construction progress in some regions may be dragged down, and the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in the month has still declined slightly. Judging from the high-frequency data related to infrastructure, the year-on-year growth rate of the petroleum asphalt equipment operation rate in October fell from 11.6% in the previous month to -1.9%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the transaction volume of construction steel fell slightly from -19.3% in the previous month to -21.0%. It can be seen that the construction progress of infrastructure may be affected to a certain extent.
Manufacturing investment declined. On the one hand, is due to weakening external demand and slow recovery of domestic demand, which weakens the willingness of manufacturing enterprises to expand production and investment. On the other hand, social financing, as capital data, is a leading indicator of manufacturing investment. Generally speaking, manufacturing investment lags behind by about one year to one and a half years. It can be seen that the growth rate of social financing stock in the middle of last year was the downward stage, which can also partly explain the reasons for the current decline in manufacturing investment.
Real estate sales decline has expanded again on the same period last year. October's sales area and sales growth rate of commercial housing sales was -23.2 and -23.7% in the same month, falling by 7.1 and 9.5 percentage points again. Compared with the lack of quality in previous years, the demand for the real estate market is still weak. However, real estate construction showed marginal improvement, with real estate construction, newly started area and completion falling by 32.6%, 35.1% and 9.4% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the decline in construction and newly started area narrowed for the second consecutive month, which shows that the work of ensuring delivery is still being carried out in an orderly manner. land transactions have also begun to recover. The land purchase area and land transaction prices of have decreased by 53.1% and 49.8% year-on-year, and the declines have narrowed. This may be due to the improvement of the financing environment of real estate companies in and the willingness of real estate companies to acquire land has recovered to a certain extent.
The short-term economy is still bottoming out
0html In January, the changes in the domestic and international situation have brought short-term pressure to the economy. On the one hand, epidemics are frequent and scattered in various parts of the country, with nearly 40,000 local cases (including confirmed and asymptomatic) in October, of which Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Guangdong and Shanxi ranked first in the number of new cases. The number of cities affected by the epidemic exceeded 100, and the economy accounted for more than 60%, the highest since April this year, which has a certain impact on the service industry, contact consumption industries, etc. related to personnel flow. On the other hand, overseas is affected by high inflation and weak demand, and my country's export growth rate has fallen rapidly, which has had a certain impact on export-oriented enterprises. Looking forward, there is still great uncertainty in the impact of the epidemic, the effect of real estate policies remains to be seen, exports continue to decline, and the economy is still under pressure in the future. However, short-term pressure will not change our long-term confidence in our economy.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Haitong Macro Li Jun, Liang Zhonghua)
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Local Finance: Where is the pressure greater? (Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua team)
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How to solve the employment problem: the key is the service industry "policy" (Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua)
Japan digests the real estate bubble: Why did it take 10 years? (Haitong Macro Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Automobile consumption stimulus: How big is it? (Haitong Macro Hou Huan, Liang Zhonghua)
How much economy can be restored? (Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua)
How to predict social financing and credit? (Haitong Macro Ying Jiaxian, Liang Zhonghua)
Legal Statement
This public subscription account (WeChat ID: Liang Zhonghua Macro Research) is the only official subscription account operated by Haitong Securities Research Institute macro industry. The content contained in this subscription account is for reference only for professional investors of Haitong Securities and is only for the exchange of research opinions in the context of new media; ordinary individual investors lack the ability to interpret research opinions or reports, and use the information related to the subscription account or cause investment losses, please be sure to unsubscribe to this subscription account. Haitong Securities will not regard it as a customer because any recipient receives the content of this subscription account.
This subscription account is not the publishing platform for Haitong research reports. Customers still need to refer to the complete report officially released by Haitong Research Institute through the research report release platform.
The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. Under no circumstances will the information contained in this subscription account or the opinions expressed do not constitute investment advice to anyone, and Haitong Securities shall not bear any legal liability for any consequences or losses caused by the direct or indirect use of the information and content published in this subscription account or investment based on it.
The information, opinions and speculations contained in this subscription account may no longer be accurate or invalid due to various changes in the release date. Haitong Securities does not assume the obligation to update inaccurate or outdated information, opinions and speculations, and will not be notified separately when updating relevant information.
The copyright of this subscription account belongs to Haitong Securities Research Institute. If any subscriber pre-cited or reprints the content contained in this subscription account, he must contact Haitong Securities Research Institute and obtain a license. He must indicate the source is Haitong Securities Research Institute, and the content shall not be cited and deleted and modified in violation of the original intention.
Haitong Securities Research Institute macro industry reserves all legal rights for this subscription account (WeChat ID: Liang Zhonghua Macro Research). Other subscription accounts registered on the WeChat platform in the name of Haitong Securities Research Institute's macro industry, or containing "Haitong Securities Research Institute's macro team or group" and related information are not the official subscription accounts of Haitong Securities Research Institute's macro industry.The consumption growth rate of industries such as medicines, food and beverages among essential consumption is the highest, while the decline in tobacco and alcohol has narrowed. Among optional consumption, real estate chain consumption such as home appliances, audio and video, building materials, furniture, etc. performed relatively poorly, with year-on-year declines of 14.1%, 8.7 and 6.6%, respectively. In addition, the consumption of communication equipment fell by 8.9% year-on-year, or because the new mobile phone issuance date was lower last year, the base was higher. The impact of the policy gradually faded, and the growth rate of automobile consumption fell by 10.3 percentage points to 3.9%, but it still maintained positive growth.
Investment: Real estate drags down still greatly
Investment growth rate declines. October fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth rate was 5.8%, continuing to rebound slightly by 0.1 percentage point from September, and the year-on-year growth rate for the month was 5.0%, down 1.6 percentage points. Judging from the quarterly adjustment month-on-month growth rate in October this year was the lowest level in the same period in previous years.
From the perspective of sub-items, the drag on real estate investment has further expanded, and the contribution of manufacturing and infrastructure investment has decreased. October's year-on-year growth rate of manufacturing and broad infrastructure investment was 6.9% and 12.8% in the month, down 3.8 and 3.5 percentage points from September, respectively. The growth rate of narrow infrastructure (excluding electricity) fell to 9.4%. Real estate investment still dragged down the overall investment, but the decline expanded by 4.0 percentage points to 16.1%.
Infrastructure investment growth rate is still at a relatively high level, but it has a slight decline in . The issuance and use of local special bonds in the early stage has accelerated, and the effective injection of funds for policy-based development financial instruments has enabled infrastructure investment to maintain a relatively high year-on-year growth rate. However, due to the impact of the local epidemic, the construction progress in some regions may be dragged down, and the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment in the month has still declined slightly. Judging from the high-frequency data related to infrastructure, the year-on-year growth rate of the petroleum asphalt equipment operation rate in October fell from 11.6% in the previous month to -1.9%, and the year-on-year growth rate of the transaction volume of construction steel fell slightly from -19.3% in the previous month to -21.0%. It can be seen that the construction progress of infrastructure may be affected to a certain extent.
Manufacturing investment declined. On the one hand, is due to weakening external demand and slow recovery of domestic demand, which weakens the willingness of manufacturing enterprises to expand production and investment. On the other hand, social financing, as capital data, is a leading indicator of manufacturing investment. Generally speaking, manufacturing investment lags behind by about one year to one and a half years. It can be seen that the growth rate of social financing stock in the middle of last year was the downward stage, which can also partly explain the reasons for the current decline in manufacturing investment.
Real estate sales decline has expanded again on the same period last year. October's sales area and sales growth rate of commercial housing sales was -23.2 and -23.7% in the same month, falling by 7.1 and 9.5 percentage points again. Compared with the lack of quality in previous years, the demand for the real estate market is still weak. However, real estate construction showed marginal improvement, with real estate construction, newly started area and completion falling by 32.6%, 35.1% and 9.4% year-on-year respectively. Among them, the decline in construction and newly started area narrowed for the second consecutive month, which shows that the work of ensuring delivery is still being carried out in an orderly manner. land transactions have also begun to recover. The land purchase area and land transaction prices of have decreased by 53.1% and 49.8% year-on-year, and the declines have narrowed. This may be due to the improvement of the financing environment of real estate companies in and the willingness of real estate companies to acquire land has recovered to a certain extent.
The short-term economy is still bottoming out
0html In January, the changes in the domestic and international situation have brought short-term pressure to the economy. On the one hand, epidemics are frequent and scattered in various parts of the country, with nearly 40,000 local cases (including confirmed and asymptomatic) in October, of which Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Guangdong and Shanxi ranked first in the number of new cases. The number of cities affected by the epidemic exceeded 100, and the economy accounted for more than 60%, the highest since April this year, which has a certain impact on the service industry, contact consumption industries, etc. related to personnel flow. On the other hand, overseas is affected by high inflation and weak demand, and my country's export growth rate has fallen rapidly, which has had a certain impact on export-oriented enterprises. Looking forward, there is still great uncertainty in the impact of the epidemic, the effect of real estate policies remains to be seen, exports continue to decline, and the economy is still under pressure in the future. However, short-term pressure will not change our long-term confidence in our economy.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Haitong Macro Li Jun, Liang Zhonghua)
Vietnam Economic Structure Chapter: The Rise of Manufacturing Driven by Export - The Second Series of Emerging Economy Research (Haitong Macro Li Jun, Wang Yuqing, Liang Zhonghua)
Vietnam Total Economic Volume : Rising Small Country Open Economy - One of Emerging Economy Research Series (Haitong Macro Li Jun, Wang Yuqing, Liang Zhonghua)
Strong US dollar: When will it peak? (Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua)
"Macro" research failed? ——On a few research insights (Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua) How to stabilize the economy by
? (Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua Team)
Local Finance: Where is the pressure greater? (Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua team)
Real Estate: How much funds are needed? (Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua Team)
race against "paper currency" - Haitong Macro Research Framework (Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua)
How to solve the employment problem: the key is the service industry "policy" (Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua)
Japan digests the real estate bubble: Why did it take 10 years? (Haitong Macro Li Linzhi, Liang Zhonghua)
Automobile consumption stimulus: How big is it? (Haitong Macro Hou Huan, Liang Zhonghua)
How much economy can be restored? (Haitong Macro Liang Zhonghua)
How to predict social financing and credit? (Haitong Macro Ying Jiaxian, Liang Zhonghua)
Legal Statement
This public subscription account (WeChat ID: Liang Zhonghua Macro Research) is the only official subscription account operated by Haitong Securities Research Institute macro industry. The content contained in this subscription account is for reference only for professional investors of Haitong Securities and is only for the exchange of research opinions in the context of new media; ordinary individual investors lack the ability to interpret research opinions or reports, and use the information related to the subscription account or cause investment losses, please be sure to unsubscribe to this subscription account. Haitong Securities will not regard it as a customer because any recipient receives the content of this subscription account.
This subscription account is not the publishing platform for Haitong research reports. Customers still need to refer to the complete report officially released by Haitong Research Institute through the research report release platform.
The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. Under no circumstances will the information contained in this subscription account or the opinions expressed do not constitute investment advice to anyone, and Haitong Securities shall not bear any legal liability for any consequences or losses caused by the direct or indirect use of the information and content published in this subscription account or investment based on it.
The information, opinions and speculations contained in this subscription account may no longer be accurate or invalid due to various changes in the release date. Haitong Securities does not assume the obligation to update inaccurate or outdated information, opinions and speculations, and will not be notified separately when updating relevant information.
The copyright of this subscription account belongs to Haitong Securities Research Institute. If any subscriber pre-cited or reprints the content contained in this subscription account, he must contact Haitong Securities Research Institute and obtain a license. He must indicate the source is Haitong Securities Research Institute, and the content shall not be cited and deleted and modified in violation of the original intention.
Haitong Securities Research Institute macro industry reserves all legal rights for this subscription account (WeChat ID: Liang Zhonghua Macro Research). Other subscription accounts registered on the WeChat platform in the name of Haitong Securities Research Institute's macro industry, or containing "Haitong Securities Research Institute's macro team or group" and related information are not the official subscription accounts of Haitong Securities Research Institute's macro industry.
