In recent times, life is probably very difficult for many American chip companies, and this difficulty is mainly reflected in two aspects.
First, the market value continues to shrink.
Since March 2022, under the background of Federal Reserve continuing to raise interest rates, the US stock market bubble is gradually being squeezed out, and many of the chip giants have also been greatly affected.
Let’s first look at the stock market performance of many American chip giants.
Nvidia.
Over the past year, Nvidia stock has fallen by more than 59%, and its market value has evaporated by more than US$500 billion.
AMD.
Over the past year, AMD's stock price fell by more than 62%, and its market value evaporated by more than US$160 billion.
intel .
Intel is also a very well-known chip giant in the world, but in the past year, Intel's stock market has also performed very poorly, with its stock price falling by more than 49%, and its market value evaporated by more than US$110 billion.
Qualcomm .
In the past year, Qualcomm's stock price has fallen by more than 44%, and its market value has evaporated by more than US$97 billion.
also includes Broadcom and Applied Materials. The market value evaporated by more than US$60 billion in the past year, and the market value evaporated by Maywell Technology, Micron and Ram Research also reached between US$40 billion and US$50 billion.
is the top 18 chip companies in the United States with market value. The cumulative market value evaporated by more than US$1.3 trillion in the past year.
If other smaller chip companies are included, The market value of the entire US chip listed companies has evaporated by at least US$1.5 trillion in the past year. According to the current RMB exchange rate against the US dollar, the additional issuance exceeds 10 trillion yuan.
Second, sales volume and profit continue to decline.
The market value of US chip companies has dropped sharply, in addition to the impact of Feder rate hikes and the reduction in market liquidity, there is another important reason. The overall performance of the US chip industry is not very ideal.
For example, according to Qualcomm's latest financial report, Qualcomm's revenue in the first quarter of fiscal year 1023 was approximately US$19.2 billion to US$10 billion, significantly lower than the previous estimate of US$12.03 billion by institutions.
, while Intel's revenue in the third quarter of 2022 was only US$15.338 billion, a decrease of 20% compared with US$19.192 billion in the same period last year, and its net profit fell by 85% year-on-year.
The decline in Intel and Qualcomm's performance is just a microcosm of the performance of the entire US chip. In fact, over the past period of time, the overall US chip industry revenue and profit have declined significantly.
According to data previously reported by Bloomberg, since July 2022, the revenue of the 30 largest chip companies in the United States is expected to be reduced from $99 billion to $88 billion in the third quarter.
Judging from the performance of market value and revenue, the US chip industry has performed quite poorly in the past period of time.
But from a global perspective, it is not only the American chip companies that are bad, but the chip industries in other countries have also been affected to varying degrees.
In the past two years, under the background of global chip shortage, many manufacturers have been working hard to produce various chips. However, in the past year, in the context of the global entry into the interest rate hike channel, market demand has weakened, resulting in chip inventory soaring and prices falling.
For example, as the world's largest chip manufacturing and exporting country, South Korea's chip production fell by 3.5% year-on-year in September 2022, while the corresponding chip inventory growth rate reached 54.7%.
When the chip market performed poorly, the profits of the two major chip manufacturers in South Korea also declined sharply.
Among them, Samsung 's profit in the third quarter of 2022 was only 10.8 trillion won, a year-on-year decrease of 31.7%; while SK Hynix 's profit in the third quarter was only 1.655 trillion won, a year-on-year decrease of 60.3%.
In addition, from a global perspective, in September 2022, global semiconductor sales fell by 3% year-on-year, which is the first decline since the beginning of 2020.
, and according to the current global economic trend, it is not ruled out that the market's demand for chips may further decline in the future.
Currently, there are three major consumer markets for chips: mobile phones, computers and cars. However, during this period, except for the demand for automotive chips is still growing, the global mobile phone and computer market performance is relatively sluggish, especially the decline in mobile phone shipments is relatively obvious.
Against the backdrop of weak overall chip demand, the US chip stimulus plan can be said to be a waste of money.
chip is the top component in the modern industrial chain. Whoever masters the chip can curb the throat of the global industrial chain.
The United States is the clearest about this point, so in recent years, when some emerging economies in Asia are constantly growing and growing, the United States has become anxious, so they began to make two moves.
The first is an external restriction.
suppresses competitors through some unconventional means, such as strictly prohibiting the United States from exporting some advanced equipment and parts to some countries; prohibiting companies using American equipment and software to cooperate with related companies, etc.
did achieve certain results in the short term. After some companies were restricted, similar companies in the United States did benefit a lot. For example, Apple , Qualcomm is the beneficiary.
The second is internal encouragement.
In the past two years, the United States has launched many relevant policies to encourage the development of local chips in the United States, and has provided all-round support in terms of financial support, tax incentives, and land policies.
These policy intentions are not only to encourage the development of the US local chip industry, but also to attract more international chip manufacturers to settle in the United States, so as to firmly control the global chip industry chain in the hands of the United States.
However, the preferential policies given by the United States are also conditional. If you want to enjoy these policies, there is a prerequisite, that is, you must terminate cooperation with relevant countries. In fact, everyone understands what the United States sells.
This practice in the United States is actually a de-globalization approach. Under the background of increasing globalization and increasingly clear global division of labor, the United States will not achieve good results through human factors in the development of the industrial chain.
The so-called twisted melon is not sweet. If you don’t get it right, the melon will be broken by itself. After distorting the global industrial chain, the United States is also experiencing the bitter fruits it brings.
Especially in the context of the current Fed's continued interest rate hikes and The prospects for the global economy are not optimistic, American chip companies are facing a "big avalanche", and all stimulus policies in the United States may become silenced. In the future, the US chip production capacity will not only not increase significantly, but may even experience a significant decline.
