A certain network Shijiazhuang allocated
1. Changes in network cognition
On September 26, CEO and president of Anneng said in the "Anneng War Committee Open Letter to All Employees and Branches": "Anneng is at the core In terms of strategic direction, from before focusing on the volume of as the king, it has turned to 's long-term healthy and sustainable development strategy of to reduce costs and increase efficiency and improve service quality to drive effective scale growth. "
No matter how large the volume of is, the development of network is unsustainable, the platform is not profitable, and the network is unhealthy. Such a scale is in vain even if it really achieves an average of 100,000 tons per day.
Here we involve two concepts: effective volume and invalid volume.
effective shipment volume is relatively ineffective shipment volume. For example, when brushing orders, the most volume of goods produced by an outlet or a platform is virtual. Although many times the outlets are in order to complete the volume at the end of the month or are induced by regional leaders to complete the order completion indicators, although the outlets pay the cost of transit fees, delivery fees and operation fees, the platform has real money into the pocket. For the outlets, this is invalid cargo volume; in the long run, it is impossible for the outlets to brush orders endlessly. Once the promise is not fulfilled, or the warehouse is always incurred and losses, the outlets withdraw from the network or transform, for the platform, this is an indirect invalid cargo volume.
Invalid cargo volume, for example, express delivery outlet receipts are the absolute main force. Once a certain network releases the price, the goods volume will rise sharply; the price will close, and the goods volume will disappear immediately, indicating that the increase in the volume of goods is either from the same industry or because of the price reduction. Some large tickets can also be entered into the Internet, which is contrary to the long-term development of the network. This is also an invalid volume of goods, and there is no reason for this. These false volumes of goods are not yours.
Some networks even claimed to be tens of millions of tons a year a few years ago. When outsiders looked at the system, they shipped less than 20,000 tons on normal working days. The volume of these blown-out goods can only be achieved through one lie after another.
Express A shares and H shares are both despised by the secondary market. In the environment of cold acceptance of capital, there are not so many stories to tell in logistics. It is the right way to operate the Internet down-to-earth and earn every copper bank to ensure that the company can survive in the cold winter. The direction of express transportation has changed, and the effective cargo volume has been valued by more and more networks.
A certain network distribution
2. Effective volume scale
Then what is the effective volume scale? Based on the views of some industry Dajia, my personal understanding includes the following aspects:
1. Any cargo volume that is conducive to the increase of profits for bicycles: express also belongs to LTF freight. To increase profits, you must learn from the main operator of large tickets and LTFs - the main businessman of the special line. The main profit of the special line is obtained through light and heavy goods matching and reasonable loading. This is why Best Times promotes the special market and ZTO's core logic of "one thing, one price". In a certain area, if there is a shortage of heavy goods or light goods, we can adjust it through price leverage . This is also the policy basis for many networks to adjust the ratio and rebate for heavy goods subsidies in some areas.
2. Any business supplement that is conducive to straightening the car line. The network needs to be subsided and the timeliness needs to be improved. Any new driving line cannot be fully loaded in a short period of time. For example, two fast-developing encrypted car lines, Zhongshan launches Linyi . At first, the routing design needs to be stopped by Hefei. In order to directly launch in Linyi, both sides adjust through price policies, which is conducive to rapid volume starting. Once the load is full or the stock is in stable condition for a period of time, the policy can be slowly recovered.
3. Regional increments that are conducive to open balance. Due to the different degrees of in the economic development of , the distribution of grain-producing areas in developed regions is to be distributed to underdeveloped service areas, and in terms of cost and pricing, it must be biased towards underdeveloped service areas. For example, if Jinhua is sent directly to Guiyang, then Guiyang will have to make a price intervention. Only when the price is reasonable and the round-trip cargo volume is balanced can the profits of bicycles be maximized.
4, conducive to mechanized operation. has the Internet "ALL IN E-commerce". For some special products such as apple in Shaanxi, Ganzhou navel orange , when trying assembly line operations, prices of goods that are conducive to online and the origin are concentrated, thereby increasing the volume of goods, which helps to upgrade operations. In this regard, the upgrade of the main hub allocation of express CR6 before Double 11 every year is a good case, which is also conducive to expanding the production capacity of and digesting more special products from the origin in the short term.
Express distribution pipeline
5, conducive to the implementation of value-added services. When was paying attention to e-commerce parts during express delivery, it found that relatively large products such as home appliances and furniture in home furnishings were the main sources of growth. Therefore, the standards were re-established on the upstairs fee, and the single ticket was within 0.25 square meters for free, in order to gain more market share of small refrigerators, small red wine cabinets, , small disinfection cabinets, shoe cabinets and other products. There was also a period of time when various networks launched standard packaging services to promote wooden frames and improve packaging safety. Because the implementation of value-added services such as going upstairs and packaging has also attracted a large amount of supply, which is also effective supply.
6, which is conducive to the optimal distribution layout. has been promoting distribution stations for a period of time, which has accelerated the process of withdrawing distributions. The radical network suddenly withdrew 50 from 182 distributions. Despite this, Guangdong's Zhanjiang and Shantou cannot be withdrawn because it is on both ends. is conducive to the overall layout of the network, is like the above two allocations. For example, some provincial and provincial cities in Yunnan and Guizhou have set up allocations. Referring to the previous third point, they place prices and collect goods in underdeveloped areas. These volumes are also effective volumes, multiple delivery lines, deepen network layout, and indirectly help the total cost structure of first- and second-level transshipment centers in developed regions to be reasonable and sustainable and optimize the lowest cost.
7. It is conducive to the maximization of social transportation resources and its own basic transportation resources. environment changes, cargo volume declines, signing long contracts with tripartite fleets, and over-resources of their own fleets. At this time, you need to fill in the warehouse and attract the supply of goods from your peers through price guidance to get the vehicles running. These are also effective cargo volume.
distribution site
33. Break the vicious circle of "scaling but not profitable"
Currently, regardless of direct sales or franchise, the smallest national network revenue has reached more than 3 billion, but the profits made by Express Transport are very few.
is also a vicious circle of industry. On the one hand, in the past, in order to quickly lay out the Internet, in order to quickly lay out the Internet, the rising stars often use low prices to quickly start the Internet and grab volume in the market, and the overall industry price has declined, which has affected the returns. On the other hand, due to the impact of the epidemic, whether it is production or trade customers, under the premise of homogeneous competition, they will subconsciously choose "low-price and good-quality" online sales.
When capital gives the industry valuation returns, it will look at the industry's growth. In the first half of 2022, the entire industry had negative growth, and it was more about stock competition. In the future, if the small ticket express network cannot break through the large ticket and cannot break through the boundaries, it will be difficult to obtain valuation returns that exceed its own value.
The secondary market looks at companies and will look at the PE valuation of profits, the PS valuation of income, and the PB valuation of assets. All have certain methodologies and systems. The valuations given by the several express delivery companies currently listed in the secondary market are not very high. The valuations given by PS are 0.5 times, and the PE is only within 20 times. The express delivery has reached a temporary valuation trough. In the era of stock competition, homogeneous competition cannot break through the phased boundaries, and industrial upgrading is not friendly to mid- and low-end express delivery companies, so the valuation is low.
financing expansion is no longer the best choice. Without the intervention of large capital to integrate other people's stock, it is the most natural choice to live and die with the competitors, so as to share the original competitor's stock.To survive, it is impossible to deceive yourself and blindly blow up the bubble. The ineffective scale will be the ultimate goal of the moon in the water. Therefore, the platform timely adjusts the product structure and continuously improves operations. ensures that most of the outlets that follow their own can make profits, continuously expand the scale of effective cargo volume, and fight this protracted war to have a future. The value of the
industry, look at the moat. The business model determines the level of valuation. If the attributes are too single, it will also affect the valuation. Second, look at the growth rate of performance. Growth includes the stability and sustainability of growth. Three to look at the growth cycle. The development of the fast-operating industry is still in the stage of fission integration. According to normal logic, an enterprise will go through the stage of germination, fission, growth, maturity, and then decline, and there will be such a cycle.
Logistics is a social necessity, e-commerce and live streaming continue to promote the change of new retail. Express transportation is an indispensable part of the comprehensive supply chain. The possibility of a track decline is relatively small, but it needs to go through the stage of fission, growth and maturity. Now it will take time to change quantitatively and qualitatively. Before the industry fission, there is no need to worry about valuation troughs. Do the right thing, make fewer mistakes, and maintain effective scale growth to wait for the day of real fission.
