Since the beginning of this year, the stock markets of various countries have fallen one after another, and the stock markets in Europe, the United States and other countries have fallen particularly strongly.
So far, the U.S. Nasdaq index has fallen by 32.7% in 3 years, the index in Europe and Germany has fallen by 16.5%, and France has fallen by 12.3%.
But so far, the Japanese stock market fell by only 3.9% in 2022, far exceeding Europe and the United States.
But even so, Japan has still become a new eye for the storm. If you are not careful, it may trigger an Asian financial crisis similar to that in 1998, and the harm this time will be far more than the last time.
01
Currently, CPI in Europe and the United States and other countries is as high as 8%. The latest CPI announced by euro zone even exceeds 10%, but the current inflation rate in Japan is still lower than 3%, which is a typical low-inflation country.
But even so, Japan's current inflation is still far higher in the past 30 years.
So, the salary that has not increased for many years has now become negative growth. Although Japan does not have the habit of reducing wages for employees, it is equivalent to reducing wages because prices have risen.
In fact, there is another more serious problem. After the exchange rate is discounted, the salary of Japanese people has become a low wage level.
If you convert the average minimum hourly wage in each country this year into Japanese yen, you will find that the average hourly wage in Japan is , and the is simply scary. The minimum hourly wage in Japan is no more than 1,000 yen, while the hourly wage in Luxembourg , California and Australia in the United States is about 2,000 yen, twice the hourly wage in Japan, and Germany and the United Kingdom also exceed 1,500 yen, which is much higher than Japan.
Of course, if we convert the above salary into US dollars, Japan's salary is also the lowest.
02
Because the income of different countries is originally used in the currencies of different countries, in order to facilitate comparison, it must be exchanged for the same currency.
But since this year, Japan's exchange rate has fallen the most severely among the major countries in the world. So if you discount it into any major currency, and the Japanese yen income you get from working in Japan and discount it into other currencies, it will definitely be much less. This is a very important reason why Japan's salary seems to be much lower than that of other countries.
Since the beginning of this year, the dollar index has risen by more than 15%, and the yen has depreciated by about 30% against the US dollar, falling to a 30-year low.
At the same time, compared with the beginning of the year, the yen also depreciated by about 10% against euros and pounds respectively.
Even in Asia, Japan has depreciated by about 20% against Vietnamese Dong .
Undoubtedly, the depreciation of the yen is the most serious problem in Japan's finances now and has also become a social problem.
03
Moreover, although inflation is now lower than in Europe and the United States, it is the highest level in Japan in the past 30 years.
In the past 30 years, Japan has not had much inflation, and it can even be said to be deflation. In other words, Japan's prices have basically not risen much, so Japan's wages have not risen much, which is a complementary approach.
Prices do not rise, so wages do not need to rise. The boss has no responsibility to raise your salary, and ordinary employees have no reason to ask for salary.
On the other hand, because wages do not rise and costs do not increase, Japanese companies do not need to raise prices to digest. This also caused the strange phenomenon of no inflation in Japan.
But now, inflation in Japan has risen, but wages cannot be increased. This has caused negative growth in the actual income of employees.
The failure to increase income will inevitably lead to a decrease in consumption. The decrease in consumption will cause the company to have a weak desire to invest, further affecting the economy. Even if the Bank of Japan repeatedly insists on monetary easing, it will be difficult to stimulate the economy in this situation.
04
The Asian financial crisis in 1998 began with the exchange rate collapse of Southeast Asian countries and then spread to more Asian countries.
, and now facing the exchange rate crash has become Japan.
00 After falling below 145 in late September, the Bank of Japan had to take action to to save the market. By last week, the yen exchange rate further fell below 150, and the Bank of Japan once again took action to save the market.
However, in the future, the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates several times in . Once the Bank of Japan gives up the rescue of the market, or fails to rescue the market, then a new round of Asian financial storm will not be far away.
